MLB: Does Winning the Winter Meetings Guarantee Wins in October?
With the acquisition of Chris Sale at the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings, fans of Red Sox Nation are beyond thrilled for the upcoming season while fan bases where teams did not do too much are filled with dread. Is winning the Winter Meetings a guarantee of playoff success?
It has been a busy week at the MLB Winter Meetings near Washington, DC. Now that the Rule 5 draft has finished (or as it should be known going forward as Padrefestapalooza 2016), it signals the end of official events at the Winter Meetings and time for those journalists in attendance to compile their Winners and Losers lists. While a convincing argument can be made for the prospect haul Rick Hahn and the Chicago White Sox left town with, I think most so-called experts will remember these Winter Meetings for the moves made by Dave Dombrowski (again) for the Boston Red Sox. Adding Chris Sale to a staff that will feature a $217 million dollar pitcher throwing second in the rotation and the current Cy Young award winner throwing third is like a “kick in the gut” for AL rivals as well as trading for set-up reliever Tyler Thornburg in an acquisition reminiscent of last year’s Carson Smith pickup means Boston is the clear winner for 2016.
What does ‘winning’ the Winter Meetings mean as far as playoff baseball in 2017? Let’s take a look back at the previous five Winter Meetings and see if any patterns emerge for the winners of the Winter Meetings and see what results Red Sox Nation can expect in the upcoming season based on the Chris Sale trade and the declaration made by most observers that Boston leaves these Winter Meetings on top with the rest of the World Series contenders having work to do to catch up.
2015 Winter Meetings
Winter Meetings Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
Moves: Sign Zack Greinke to a 6 year, $206.5 Million dollar deal; Trade for Shelby Miller from Atlanta Braves
Record (2016): 69 – 93, 18 Games back for the NL Wild Card
World Series Winner: Chicago Cubs
Analysis: Things did not go exactly as planned. Winning the offseason was the last offseason that GM Dave Stewart would get as Stewart and manager Chip Hale were given their walking papers after the season ended. Signing Greinke from a division rival was supposed to catapult the D-Backs into a three horse race with the Dodgers and Giants, but Greinke’s middling numbers (13 – 7 4.37 ERA) and Miller’s heinous numbers (3 – 12 6.15 ERA) were far from the value expected based on the size of the contract Greinke signed and the projected potential Dave Stewart gave up in order to acquire Miller from Atlanta. Boston will be hoping history will not repeat itself when it comes to acquiring aces for top prospects.
2014 Winter Meetings
Winter Meetings Winner: Chicago White Sox
Moves: Acquire SP Jeff Samardzija from Oakland, sign CL David Robertson to a 4 year, $46 million dollar deal
Record (2015): 76 – 86, 10 Games back for the AL Wild Card
World Series Winner: Kansas City Royals
Analysis: While their division mates from Kansas City lifted the trophy in 2015, the White Sox were nowhere to be seen despite making impact moves that would put them over the top. Samardzija (11 – 13, 4.96 ERA) was not the ace the White Sox needed and while Robertson filled the closer role admirably (34 SV, 3.41 ERA), but there just weren’t enough games to save. Samardzija left after one season to become the number 4 pitcher in San Francisco and Robertson looks to be on his way to a contender in this offseason’s purge that Rick Hahn is conducting. The assets Chicago gave up were underwhelming so it was not as painful as the D-Backs’ acquisition of Shelby Miller is, but the moves also fell well short of expectations.
The other contender for Winter Meetings Winner in 2014 fared even worse than the White Sox. The Tigers acquired Yoenis Cespedes to add another big bat to their lineup (in exchange for Number 5 SP Rick Porcello) and RP Alfredo Simon and finished behind the White Sox in the AL Central at 74 – 87.
2013 Winter Meetings
Winter Meetings Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
Moves: A 3-team deal where Arizona received 1B Mark Trumbo; Chicago White Sox received OF Adam Eaton and the L.A. Angels acquired SP Hector Santiago and SP Tyler Skaggs
Record (2014): 64 – 98, 24 games back of the NL Wild Card
World Series Winner: San Francisco Giants
Analysis: It was a rather boring Winter Meetings but Arizona was perceived to have won the three-team trade where they acquired Mark Trumbo and this was the biggest move that took place ahead of 2013. Arizona and the White Sox finished last and second to last respectively in their divisions in 2014 while the Angels won the AL West, before being swept in the Divisional round by the Kansas City Royals.
The big free agents in 2013 were Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury but they both signed rather large contracts before the Winter Meetings.
2012 Winter Meetings
Winter Meetings Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Moves: Acquired R.A. Dickey from the New York Mets
Record (2013): 74 – 88, 17 games back of the AL Wild Card
World Series Winner: Boston Red Sox
This deal actually happened shortly after the Winter Meetings finished but the Jays were still basking in the glow of their trade with the Marlins to acquire SS Jose Reyes, SP Mark Buehrle and SP Josh Johnson at the end of November and were the rumored front runners for 2012 Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey throughout the Winter Meetings. Of course, not only did Toronto not solve a 20 year absence from the playoffs but they finished last in the AL East and to add insult to injury, traded Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud in the Dickey trade who would help the Mets make it to the World Series in 2015 just as Toronto was peaking under their current construction.
The AL East team that might have performed the best at the 2012 Winter Meetings was the Red Sox, who signed Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli. Both played roles in Boston’s run to the title in 2013.
2011 Winter Meetings
Winter Meetings Winner: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Moves: Signed 1B Albert Pujols to 10 year, $240 million dollar deal; SP C.J. Wilson to a 5 year, $75 million dollar deal
Record (2012): 89 – 73, 4 games back of the AL Wild Card
World Series Winner: San Francisco Giants
Wow! We are already halfway through the stunning contract 36 year old Albert Pujols signed at the 2011 Winter Meetings. Before the 2011 Winter Meetings took place, Pujols was expected to return to St. Louis and C.J. Wilson was expected to stay with the Rangers but both made the move to the O.C. on December 8th 2011 in what turned out to be the second most important day in 2011 for Anaheim’s baseball club. The Angels were in the thick of the playoff hunt all season in 2011 and even had a better regular season record than the Detroit Tigers, who represented the American League in the World Series, but finished third in the AL West behind Oakland and Texas and out of the playoffs.
The then Florida Marlins also made some noise at the 2011 Winter Meetings signing future Blue Jays SS Jose Reyes (6 year, $106 million) and SP Mark Buehrle (4 year, $58 million) ahead of their name change to Miami but finished the 2012 season at 69 – 93 and nowhere near the playoffs.