3. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Birthdate: 7/14/94 (22 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: low A, AA, AAA, MLB
Stats in 2016: 115 1/3 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.01 BB%, 23.77 K% (minor league stats only)
This spot will likely surprise many as Giolito has been rated as high as #3 overall as a prospect in the entire game coming into this season, the #1 overall pitcher.
Drafted with Tommy John surgery on his arm out of high school, Giolito was a legit consideration for the first overall selection in the 2012 draft before his surgery. Instead, the Nationals grabbed Giolito at the 16th overall selection.
Giolito’s big fastball and curve have been his selling points from day one in pro ball
Giolito’s big fastball and curve have been his selling points from day one in pro ball. He can touch triple digits with his fastball, but it was tagged with good plane over his minor league career from his 6’6 frame.
Instead, the fastball was incredibly flat in 2016, and the fastball is a pure four-seam pitch, not a two-seamer, so it really does not spin hard either, which is why you saw his strikeout rate drop quite significantly this season.
The curve was also a pitch that has slowly lost bite over the years in the minor leagues, and this year, it was to the point where the pitch was best used as a ground ball inducing pitch rather than a strikeout pitch as it was the last few years.
The Nationals did make some mechanical tweaks to Giolito last season, attempting to allow him to get more movement on his pitches, but he went even further backward.
There is not a pitcher in the minors with a higher overall ceiling than Giolito, but the difference between present and future grades are more like a guy who is in A-ball, not someone who should open 2017 in the major leagues.
For many years, there have been questions about Giolito’s ability to handle failure, and he did not respond well at all in 2016. With a new organization in 2017, it will be interesting to see how he responds, but his stock in my eyes is down significantly.
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