For a team in the midst of a rebuild, the Philadelphia Phillies seem to have a lot of momentum. They have one of the best farm systems in baseball, and keep adding to their already-impressive front office. They won’t win many games in 2017, but the future is still bright in Philadelphia.
I know, I know. There’s never a good time to be a losing team. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s get started. Right now, I’d the say Philadelphia Phillies are about 50%, maybe 60% of the way through the rebuilding process. The farm system is packed with talent, but many of those players remain unproven. A lot of the right pieces are in place, but there is still a lot of work to be done.
The Cubs, Indians, Rangers, Nationals and Red Sox are all fighting over who the best team in baseball is, and the Cubs recently won a major battle in that regard. Meanwhile the Phillies, Brewers and Braves are admittedly quite a ways away from that distinguished title. Over the next 3-4 years, these thriving teams will sit atop the power rankings while the rest of the league scuffles for a Wild Card spot. Of course there will be surprise teams along the way, but you get the idea. There are powerhouse teams, and there are the non-powerhouse teams. Right now the Phillies are a non-powerhouse team.
All dynasties must fall
Eventually, the core players of the aforementioned powerhouse teams will reach free agency. Maybe a quarter of them re-sign with their current team, and those clubs will be tasked with starting over. Bryce Harper will soon reach free agency. Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are surely nearing the end of their careers, and Gio Gonzalez only has two years left on his contract. They just traded away their top prospect in Lucas Giolito, and the duo of Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon cannot save this team from their eventual downfall. Three seasons down the line, we will be looking at a Nationals team that is scrambling to retool.
The Cubs appear to be set up for the foreseeable future, as do the Red Sox to a slightly lesser extent. When guys like J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams, Dylan Cozens, and Jake Thompson begin to hit their stride in the majors, the Cubs and BoSox will be facing a similar problem as the Nationals. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Jake Arrieta, and Javier Baez won’t be in Chicago forever. Likewise, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brock Holt, and Xander Bogaerts will eventually move on from the Red Sox.
Strike While Your Enemy is Weak
Most of the players I’ve named won’t be free agents until at least 2020, which is three full seasons away. When these players reach free agency (and for many, their prime), the Phillies will be conveniently poised to make veteran additions. Somewhere along the way, the Phils will need to bring guys in from outside the farm system. It’s possible that Maikel Franco doesn’t last at 3B. The outfield is all questions marks behind Odubel Herrera, and he may not last. Plus, we have no idea what a successful Phillies bullpen is going to look like. Many star-caliber free agents hit the market in a couple years, and the Phillies may consider investing in one or two of them.
Potential FA after the 2018 season: Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Donaldson, Price, McCutchen, Harvey, Keuchel, Miller, Kimbrel, Britton, more.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2016
Who knows? Maybe the team decides to add Kris Bryant in the 2021 offseason to shore up the infield. The team has money to spend, and they aren’t spending it right now. Should they keep the payroll low through 2019, the team will be set up perfectly to make major additions. Hopefully, this course of events will line up with the development paths of the young Philies core. There will be a few other teams stacked with depth and talent as well, but that’s what makes baseball exciting. The Braves, Brewers and even the Reds might be the powerhouse teams in 5-6 years, we’ll have to wait and see. What many seem to agree about, is that the Phillies are set up to be a very good team in the foreseeable future.