Houston Astros Top Starting Pitcher Trade Targets
RHP Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
FanGraphs projection: 201 IP, 214 K, 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.1 WAR
2017–$4.75 million
2018–$6.25 million
2019–$7.5 million
2020–$9 million club option ($1.75 million buyout)
2021–$11 million club option (0.25 million buyout)
Chris Archer is right there with Jose Quintana as the most talented trade target for the Astros. Archer struggled a bit last year, posting a 4.02 ERA, but much of his difficulty was in allowing home runs, which he hasn’t historically struggled with. He gave up 30 home runs last year, an average of 1.3 per nine innings. His career rate is a more reasonable 0.9 HR/9.
Archer has terrific stuff. He’s had back-to-back seasons of striking out at least 27% of the batters he’s faced and ranks fifth in baseball in strikeout rate among qualified starting pitchers over the last two years. The four pitchers ahead of him are Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Noah Syndergaard.
The Tampa Bay Rays know Archer is a valuable commodity, especially with the team-friendly contract he’s signed to. Archer will make $18.5 million over the next three years and could make $38.5 million over five years if his two club options are picked up. That’s $7.7 million per year for five years for an elite starting pitcher. The Astros took a flier on Charlie Morton this off-season when they signed him to a 2-year, $14 million contract and Morton is coming of an injured season and is not even close to the pitcher Archer is.
Marc Topkin at the Tampa Bay Times has reported that the Rays are asking for 5-6 players for Archer. That’s a hefty price tag. They may be looking for a similar haul to what the White Sox got for Chris Sale. Archer isn’t as good as Sale, but he has five years of control at $38.5 million while Sale had 3 years at $38 million.
Of course, the number of players acquired in a trade would depend on the caliber of players. Baseball America has right-handed pitcher Francis Martes as the Astros’ #1 prospect. Outfielder Kyle Tucker is #2. To land Archer, the Astros would likely have to include one or both of those players, plus more. It really depends if they want to go “all in” for 2017 or look elsewhere for a pitcher who won’t demand such a hefty price.