MLB: Ranking the Top Five Starting Rotations

This MLB off-season has been a very active one. We have seen blockbuster deals, record signings, and smaller impact trades. This activity leads to a shift in the landscape of the MLB.

If defense wins championships in football, pitching wins championships in the MLB. Well, sometimes that is the case. In recent years offensive production is what has been winning teams championships. A prime example of this is the 2015 Royals and 2014 Giants. Sure, Madison Bumgarner lead the Giants to the World Series with a historic playoff performance. The thing that doesn’t get recognized is the Giants starting pitching ranked 21st in WAR that season. Nonetheless, when the game comes down to the wire, and all the marbles are on the table, pitching is the best asset at any teams disposal.

With the Winter Meetings coming to close only four days ago, and a lot of off-season remaining, there is still very many moves that could impact this ranking. While there isn’t any notable free agents outside of perhaps Tyson Ross, trade targets like Jose Quintana and Chris Archer can drastically improve a teams starting rotation. With the big name already off the table, Chris Sale, the remaining moves available seem rudimentary at best. Sure, Archer or Quintana could drastically improve a starting rotation, but the teams targeting them likely already have stellar rotations. Ball clubs aren’t looking to build around these guys, instead insert them into an already great system.

Therefore, it may still be too early to rank the best rotations for 2017, however it isn’t absurd to think these rankings remain static. With so little big impact moves remaining, it is hard to see a team jump from pretenders to contenders at this stage in the pitching department. So, with all of that being said, let’s take a look at the best starting rotations in baseball.

5. Washington Nationals

With reigning NL Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer, and potential Cy Young candidate Stephen Strasburg the Nationals are posed to have one of the best rotations in baseball. However, Scherzer and Strasburg isn’t where the Nationals draw the line in terms of talent. Washington also holds respectable assets in Joe Ross, Tanner Roark, and Gio Gonzalez. Each of these men have shown signs of being solid contributors and potentially break out stars, which only makes the outlook in Washington more promising.

The reason the Nationals aren’t higher on this list is because of the question marks surrounding their top two pitchers. Scherzer will be turning 33 next season. While that isn’t old, it can be stated that 2016 was perhaps the last year in his prime. Despite winning the Cy Young, his numbers actually dipped from 2015 to 2016. He had more wins and more strike outs, but issued nearly double the amount of walks and allowed the seventh most amount of home runs (31).

I am not saying that Scherzer will be bad next season by any strech of the imagination. However, as you get older your pitches become more hittable. Scherzer’s biggest asset has been the strike out, and without it he may not be the same.

As for Strasburg, injuries have circled around his head since the moment he stepped on a big league mound. While Strasburg started the season out phenomenal, after he got hurt yet again his numbers seemed to fizzle out. Strasburg has failed to throw more than 150 innings in the last two seasons, and has only thrown more than 200 innings on one occasion.

4. New York Mets

Led by Thor himself, the young pitching staff of the New York Mets has the potential to do something special in 2017. Noah Syndergaaard, Jacob DeGrom, Stephen Matz, and Matt Harvey all are responsible for paving the path to success for New York. We saw a glimpse of what they could do in 2015, reaching the World Series, and after a disappointing 2016 campaign the young arms of New York will pitch with a vengeance.

Noah Syndergaard is already one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he is only 24 years old. Syndergaard led qualified pitchers in WAR, was third in ERA, and fourth in K/9. Syndergaard is doing all of this while he is developing, and seemingly can only improve from here.

Jacob DeGrom just two years ago was in Syndergaard’s shoes, he provided the face of the franchise at a relatively young age. Although DeGrom had a down year in 2016 due to injuries, the sky is the limit for the young pitcher. At only 28 years old, DeGrom is likely entering the best stretch of his career. Steven Matz, who is 25 years old, is in the same boat as DeGrom. Sickened with injury, Matz failed to show us his true potential in 2016. However, at such a young age Matz has all the talent in the world to put up insane numbers along with Syndergaard and DeGrom.

Matt Harvey is perhaps the biggest what if in baseball right now. After a stellar 2013 campaign that ended in injury Harvey has not been the same.  Matt posted a respectable 2015, only to follow-up with a disastrous 2016 campaign. Sickened with injuries since his rise to fame, the only thing remaining for Harvery is question marks. In fact, with so many injuries, the entire staff has question marks – leading to the Mets only being ranked fourth.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

According to Fangraphs 2017 predictions, the Los Angeles Dodgers will lead the league in WAR for starting pitchers. It’s not hard to see why that prediction is justifiable. First, the Dodgers have the best pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw. Forget about what people say about his postseason performance, Kershaw is the best pitcher in the world. If it wasn’t for his back injury Kershaw likely would have taken home yet another Cy Young and would have yet again been in the running for MVP. Leading all pitchers in WAR, despite not being qualified, only shows Kershaw’s true dominance.

Another reason the prediction is so high is because the Dodgers have so many arms listed for starting pitching. Eleven players are listed to contribute for the Dodgers starting rotation in 2017. This isn’t surprising considering the amount of pitchers who pitched for the boys in blue last season. The opening day rotation, as of now, will likely consist of: Kershaw, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, and Alex Wood.

With so many more arms outside of those five it’s easy to see why the Dodgers may have the most valuable staff in baseball. Scott Kazmir can still produce along with the often forgot about Hyun-Jin Ryu and the young prospect Jose De Leon. Trading away some of these arms, especially De Leon, is likely on the radar for the Dodgers. With a need for a second baseman, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some of these arms be dealt.

If Urias can have an exponential growth into his potential, the Dodgers may be number one. However, with Hill’s injury history, Urias’ inexperience, and Maeda’s late season melt down, the Dodgers as of now seem to be the third best rotation in baseball – despite the predictions.

2. Chicago Cubs

While they may be a little thin as of now, the Chicago Cubs still boast the second best starting rotation in baseball. Despite Fangraphs predicting that the trio of arms in Chicago will regress in 2017, I highly doubt that will be the case. Led by Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Jake Arrieta the Cubs boast the second best 1-2-3 punch in baseball. With the 2015 Cy Young winner, and two 2016 finalists, the Cubs boast incredible talent. With veteran Jack Lackey behind him, and a potential move to the rotation for Mike Montgomery, the Cubs look set heading into 2017.

Although Lester’s WAR numbers have been shrinking over the last three years, he had one of the best years in his career in 2016.  Lester posted his lowest ERA, 2.44, along with the most wins and highest left on base percentage. Hitters batted a career low .209 against Lester, the best of his career, he was nothing short of dominant. Although he likely won’t put up the same performance heading into his age 33 season, with two other strong younger arms behind him it won’t be as impactful as Scherzer’s decline would be.

Hendricks had a flash in the pan sort of year in 2016. Because he has never performed like this, many think that he will fail to regain his form in 2017. However, I think this is complete nonsense. At 27 years old he is arguably only getting better, and his playoff performance only showed that. Facing the best teams in the league, Hendricks posted a 1.42 ERA in the 2016 playoffs, hitters only batted .209 against him.

As for Arrieta, I think his 2017 performance will mirror his 2016 performance. I think 2015 was a special year, and it would be very hard to duplicate that. However, he still did phenomenal in 2016, and having a middle rotation guy post a 3.10 ERA is something truly special.