Mar 19, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies hat and bat lays at home plate against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The Philadelphia Phillies had a rough 2016, as was to be expected, but there were moments of hope, especially early in the season. What can the minor league system offer for 2017?
An Introduction
Our minor league top 10 series is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call to the Pen.
He has pored over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. These lists are based out of those conversations.
Each system will have prospects from 10 to 1, and then finish with one newcomer to the system that is worth keeping an eye on that is not in the top 10 at this time.
Conversations are certainly encouraged in the comments section on each system as we go along!
Phillies System Review
Looking around the game, you’ll have trouble finding many systems deeper than the Phillies. As I have put together these top 10s, I’m also putting together a top 100 list that will come out later this month along with organizational rankings to follow those.
Philadelphia has built up a system that is among what I believe to be the six elite systems in the game. I’ve not sat down to truly decide how I want to rank those six, but it would not surprise me at all if the Phillies were #1 overall in the end.
The big difference for the Phillies and many other organizations that put the focus that they have into their minor league system is that the Phillies will also have the ability to make significant financial commitments to those players that they want to keep around long-term.
What is incredible to consider is that Philadelphia has absolutely zero players under contract after 2017. The team will have every ability to choose to invest in the 2017-2018 free agent class or go with their system for the 2018 season and then attack that monster 2018 free agent class that could include Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Adam Jones, A.J. Pollock, and possible opt outs of David Price and Clayton Kershaw.
This is a team set up for a long, long time. Let’s take a look at the top 10 list!
Birthdate: 5/14/93 (23 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, AAA, MLB Stats in 2016: .302/.372/.451, 6 HR, 36 SB (minor league stats)
Roman Quinn is a guy who was drafted in 2011 as one of the “old Phillies” picks – lots and lots of upside, but raw tools that could either explode or flame out, likely with little in between.
Instead, he’s been the rare “in between” guy who has worked his way up the system step by step, earning his way up the ladder while moving positions from shortstop to center field.
(Quinn) has very good contact ability along with speed that is a true 80 on the scouting 20 to 80 scale
Quinn’s move defensively was predicated on the presence of first Jimmy Rollins and then other more-highly-rated shortstop prospects in the system, and it could not have gone better. Quinn has excellent reads in center and possesses a fringe-plus arm that plays up due to his tremendous accuracy from center field.
Offensively, Quinn has long been viewed as the “perfect #2 hole hitter” in the eyes of scouts. He has very good contact ability along with speed that is a true 80 on the scouting 20 to 80 scale.
The biggest issue for Quinn has been quite simple, his health. He’s struggled to play 100 games in a season due to consistent significant injuries that seem to plague him.
Quinn will likely get a chance to claim a spot in the Phillies starting lineup for 2017, and his switch-hitting ability and speed could be a catalyst in the Phillie lineup.
Birthdate: 12/18/96 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: short season A Stats in 2016: 64 2/3 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.02 BB%, 12.78 K%
Medina is a guy who many may not be aware of, but he is a guy who has the ability to be the best pitcher in the Phillies system, and that’s saying a lot in this loaded system.
While other arms are more explosive, Medina showed exceptional ability in his stability on the mound. He was able to carve through hitters coming out of college with his stuff, generating a ton of weak contact.
However, in spite of being a “smaller” righty, (Medina) gets tremendous sink on his fastball that runs up to 96 and sits 90-93.
Medina is not a guy who physically intimidates anyone at 6’1″ and under 200 pounds. However, in spite of being a “smaller” righty, he gets tremendous sink on his fastball that runs up to 96 and sits 90-93.
He has taken a big step forward with his change as it has tremendous arm deception and movement that mimics the fastball, getting great sink on his change, and generating a ton of weak contact and even swing and miss off the change.
His curve is a pitch with an incredible spin rate, but it doesn’t really have a ton of depth to get swing and miss.
Medina may not be a guy who projects as a #1 type of starter, but he may have the best floor in the entire system as his three pitches should allow him to eat a ton of innings, and likely move quickly through the system.
Medina will start 2017 in full-season ball, and it would surprise no one with his mound presence and sinking stuff if he was in high-A to finish the year.
Birthdate: 9/23/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: short season A Stats in 2016: .200/.254/.292, 2 HR; 5 SB
Signed out of Venezuela in 2014 for just under a million dollars in bonus money, Gamboa made the leap straight to the GCL in his first year, and while the bat wasn’t great there, his glove was incredible.
Then he jumped advanced rookie ball and went to the New York-Penn League, and he was incredibly impressive in the field, flashing range that could be rated as plus at least along with a plus arm as well.
(Gamboa) has continued to show improvements in his ability to make contact, his ability to generate power, and his overall idea at the plate
Gamboa has been pushed by the Phillies beyond where his bat has been ready, but he has continued to show improvements in his ability to make contact, his ability to generate power, and his overall idea at the plate.
He faced mostly guys who were coming out of college in 2016 in the NYPL as an 18-year-old. He’ll be 19 in 2016, and he’ll likely be in full-season Lakeland.
Gamboa is a guy who may not be on a ton of Phillies lists for sure, but every person I talked to about the system brought him up without me prompting his name, and that’s not true of a number of guys above him (though, many of them would likely be “assumed” prospects by many scouts).
It will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle him and let him develop his bat, especially with Gamboa being a legit shortstop defensively. They should have time to let him develop with Crawford being defensively ready at shortstop for a while.
Birthdate: 7/29/98 (18 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie Stats in 2016: 54 IP, 0.50 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 4.12 BB%, 22.68 K%
The ace of the Phillies’ excellent GCL team, Sanchez has an elite overall mix of pitches for a guy who turned 18 during the season.
Sanchez works with a fastball that works in the mid-90s and can touch triple digits. That alone was tough for GCL hitters to get ahold of, but his change was far better than advertised to pair with that change.
Sanchez is still raw on the mound, having taken a transition to the mound from the infield late in his “development”, signing for just $35K due to this. The Phillies may have stolen a gem here, though.
As Sanchez continues to develop his curve and his feel for the mound, he will become more and more dominant. It was impressive that he was able to keep the ball in the zone so well, and he flashed two different curves that got a lot of notice from scouts that I talked with.
Considering he’s only pitched now for about 2-2 1/2 years, Sanchez has already taken huge steps, and it’s still a “sky is the limit” sort of outlook for his future.
Sanchez should be at the New York-Penn League by the end of 2017, but no one would be surprised if he made it to low-A.
Birthdate: 6/11/93 (23 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: AA, MLB Stats in 2016: .285/.325/.458, 15 HR, 3 SB (minor league stats only)
Those who have been following prospects for some time know Alfaro as Jason Parks’ favorite prospect in the Rangers system since he was signed in 2010 by Texas.
When you watch Alfaro in the box, it’s easy to see what those who love him see – his power is a thing of beauty. When he hits the ball right, it doesn’t jump off of his bat, it explodes.
Then he steps behind the plate, and while his fielding is good, the second someone is foolish enough to run on him and he gets out of his crouch, you hear the crowd collectively breath in their anticipation of his incredible arm, expecting to see a big-time throw.
When you watch Alfaro in the box, it’s easy to see what those who love him see
Alfaro has struggled to develop enough in his other tools to become a viable major league prospect, but he’s shown more ability to make contact throughout the zone, allowing his powerful contact to also bring him a solid batting average as well.
You’d like to see more walks on Alfaro’s resume, but he’s brought down his strikeout rate quite drastically, and that’s a big step for him. He also has shown the ability to take pitches within an at bat, though he rarely ends the at bat walking toward first.
Alfaro will likely get a chance to show his ability in the majors in 2017, but he’ll likely spend his season in AAA, behind multiple very solid catchers in Andrew Knapp and Cameron Rupp.
Birthdate: 6/25/95 (21 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: low A Stats in 2016: 114 2/3 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.98 BB%, 25.95 K%
When you cover another team, it’s considered bad form to be a fan of an opponent’s player. Yet, when I called South Atlantic League scouts for teams and independent, they all raved about Kilome, such that he was a very strong consideration as high as #3.
Kilome is a guy who is listed much differently than his true size. He’s a full 6’6″, but his listed 175 pounds is probably as much as 40 pounds under his current weight, and it is all good weight as he looks physically impressive on the mound.
The Phillies have let Kilome move slowly as he adjusts to his added musculature and, with it, added velocity. That patience was rewarded this season as things came together for Kilome, and he should explode up the system in 2017.
The Phillies have let Kilome move slowly as he adjusts to his added musculature
Kilome runs his fastball to triple digits with multiple reports from scouts of 101-102 on their guns during the year. He sits 93-96, and one scout said that number is more accurately 92-98 as he is able to add and take away velocity on his fastball very well, which is huge.
His curve is his second pitch, and he is getting on top of that pitch much more consistently, and it has really shown good depth this year, becoming a swing and miss pitch.
The change may be his third pitch, but it took a big step forward in 2016, showing above-average arm deception and the ability to generate a bunch of weak contact with the pitch, especially coming from his 6’6″ plane.
Kilome is one of a few guys in low-A ball that I could absolutely use the words “future ace” on and not blink. He has that level of upside, and he is a very, very special talent.
The Phillies will likely start Kilome at high-A, but it would not surprise me at all if he jumps up multiple levels in 2017 after getting his physicality under him in 2016.
Birthdate: 11/18/98 (18 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie Stats in 2016: .231/.325/.434, 8 HR, 8 SB
Ortiz is listed at 6’3″ and 215 pounds. That’s likely about an inch or two short and about 30-45 pounds short of his actual size. After just being signed in 2015, he made his pro debut in 2016 in GCL, and he showed impressive athleticism at his size.
The raw tools are pretty skewed toward power for Ortiz, and that was the reason the Phillies gave him $4M to sign and even traded away prospects in order to get the room in their free agent budget to bring him in without penalty.
(Ortiz) made his pro debut in 2016 in GCL, and he showed impressive athleticism at his size
We won’t get to see Ortiz for a while, and the physical body is likely already where it will be (hopefully!!). However, Ortiz has shown more already from his time in the GCL than anyone expected from him athletically.
Ortiz is not a guy who will ever win a Gold Glove in right field, but he has the instincts to make all the plays needed with a very good arm in right field.
He does have been strikeout tendencies at the plate to work on and he can fall in love with his pull power, Ortiz has a more advanced approach than many believed when he was signed. Add in the surprising instincts he showed on the bases, and he could be quite a valuable offensive piece.
Of course, if the National League added the designated hitter, or Ortiz was used in a deal to an American League club, his size won’t matter, but for now, it is something he’ll have to consistently be working on to stay in the kind of shape that can keep up all of the high praise he received this year.
He’ll still be in partial-season leagues this year, but if he continues with the impressive play he had, Ortiz could end up finishing in full-season ball.
Birthdate: 9/8/93 (23 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA Stats in 2016: .258/.287/.427, 13 HR, 6 SB
If there’s a player with more raw talent in the Phillies system than Williams, it’d be hard to identify exactly who that would be. However, most of the guys with the distance between their raw talent and realized skills that Williams has are playing in low-A, not in AAA ball.
Williams has plus grades on his contact ability, his raw power, and his speed. When he makes contact with a ball, it explodes off of his bat, and he can turn many singles into doubles with his blazing speed.
Williams was acquired by the Phillies in the Cole Hamels trade with the Rangers, and he’s shown many of the same struggles in the Phillies organization that plagued him with Texas, specifically a lack of focus and a struggle to show patience at the plate.
With even a modicum of patience, Williams would be an elite offensive prospect in the entire game, as his power/speed combination along with his extremely quick bat would allow him to be a consistent high-average hitter.
Instead, he chases pitches frequently, leading to a high strikeout rate and ends up with a batting average well below his talent level that he should be able to show.
Williams has the legit skill to play center, but he has shown some issue with consistent effort in center and therefore has been assumed to be a more likely left fielder due to an average arm.
Williams will be in major league Spring Training this spring, and the Phillies would love to find the “on” switch to those issues that have remained unable to be switched on in his pro career thus far.
Birthdate: 1/11/95 (21 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: AA, AAA Stats in 2016: .250/.349/.339, 7 HR, 12 SB
This will likely be a bit on the “controversial” side for many Phillies fans, and even on a national level, but the more I talked with guys outside of the system, the more I heard concern on Crawford.
Often I would attribute that to prospect fatigue as a guy who was a top 5-10 prospect in the game didn’t have a major season and people are just dinging the guy to ding him, but the reports weren’t about things you’d usually hear.
Crawford saw a solid season in the field. That is one area that is absolutely not in doubt. He will be an elite fielder without question with excellent instincts at short
Crawford is a guy who has excellent bat control and bat speed, and that’s led many to believe that Crawford will be a guy to not only hit for good average but also solid power in the future.
In my viewings, I really see a lot of Andrelton Simmons in Crawford. That’s an incredibly valuable piece, but it’s not a top 5 prospect in baseball piece. He swings out of his shoes at times, and while he has good strike zone judgement and doesn’t strike out a ton, he rarely makes “best” contact with a pitch.
Crawford for all of his brilliance in the field with an exceptional range also doesn’t flash speed on base to steal or even grab extra bases frequently.
He will likely challenge for the big league job out of Spring Training, but I do see a Simmons/Jose Iglesias future for Crawford, not a Francisco Lindor sort of future.
Birthdate: 5/13/98 (18 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie Stats in 2016: .284/.340/.409, 1 HR, 10 SB
It’s a tough thing to surpass a top 10 overall prospect on a list, even for the #1 overall selection, but Moniak certainly showed everything he would need to in order to make that sort of jump in 2016.
Moniak was a guy who got invites to the summer showcases last summer as a guy who was likely considered a back-end first-round selection type, but then he showed up and hit everything, caught everything, and he seemed to just have all kinds of baseball “feel.”
Moniak offensively is a guy who has a plus hit tool and plus speed that he uses exceptionally well already. He does a solid job of getting an extra base on balls to the outfield consistently.
Moniak’s best present attribute is his center field defense, and many believe that he will project as a Gold Glove caliber defender in center field. He makes excellent reads on the ball and runs tremendous routes, especially for a high schooler. His arm is average, but he plays it up with very high-level accuracy.
Moniak has an athletic build that can be expected to add some power as he progresses.
The Phillies could end up moving Moniak straight to full-season ball in 2017, but he would skip over advanced rookie and the New York-Penn League to get to low-A, and that could be fairly aggressive. However, finishing 2017 in a full-season league would not surprise anyone at all.
Birthdate: 11/16/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie Stats in 2016: 9 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.76 BB%, 21.43 K%
Gowdy was a guy who got a lot of talk early in the first round with his excellent performance as a California high schooler, but he had some fairly high demands in bonus in order to buy him out of his college commitment.
The Phillies were able to save plenty of money due to the structure of the bonus pool on their #1 overall pick of Moniak and applied that toward Gowdy at #42 overall.
Gowdy is a guy who is projectable in his body, but also has a fairly high level of performance already. He’s 6’4″ and very lean at 175ish pounds, but he has broad shoulders that should easily hold more weight as he fills in his frame.
Gowdy may not have any single pitch that gets to a plus-plus level, but he should operate with three on an above-average to plus level, starting with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and can touch 96, though that increased size could certainly increase velocity and lead to a plus fastball.
He works with a slider that has excellent late bite and can generate swing and miss when he gets on top of the pitch, though he has a habit of getting on the side of the pitch with his hand, which leads to some slurve to the pitch.
His change is a solid pitch, especially for a high schooler. He has excellent arm deception and uses location in order to play up the pitch further.
Gowdy did add height late in his high school career, so he still is struggling to be consistent in his delivery. As he fills out and finds that consistency, his control could really tick up, allowing him to profile as a #2/3 starter.
He’ll likely begin the year in extended spring and head to an advanced rookie league in 2017, but it would not surprise if he finished the year in full-season ball.
