MLB Players Poised to Rebound in 2017
By Nick Fustor
Dallas Keuchel
Two spectacualr seasons in 2014 and 2015 pushed Dallas Keuchel to the forefront of the conversation for best pitcher in the American League. After winning the Cy Young in 2015, it looked as if Keuchel was unstoppable. But then Keuchel stumbled out of the gate in 2016 and never gained enough consistency to lead the Astros pitching staff to prominence.
Much was maligned about Keuchel and his struggles in 2016, but his numbers indicate better days will come in 2017. Keuchel finished with a 4.55 ERA, but his 3.87 FIP (fielding independent pitching) proves he was a far better pitcher than many believed. The lefty was unluckier than 2015 with a .304 BABIP this season, as compared to .269 in 2015, but his command was ultimately what led to his struggles.
Keuchel’s 8.38 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 in 2015 dipped to 7.71 and 2.57 in 2016, respectively. While those numbers in 2016 aren’t bad by any means, his command led to a weaker overall performance. Additionally, he threw nearly six percent fewer fastballs in 2016 while throwing about four percent more cutters. A dip in velocity of nearly one mile per hour on each of his pitches made it much easier for hitters to predict and hit his pitches.
The 28-year-old was ultimately shut down in September after lingering soreness kept him out for a few starts in late August, so Keuchel’s struggles could be blamed on a larger workload in 2015. His previous career-high in innings was 200 in 2014, and that increased to 232 in 2015.
Ultimately, Keuchel performed far better down the stretch this season than he did to start the year, and it’s likely that fatigue and a dip in velocity led to his struggles. Watch for Keuchel to return to form fairly quickly to start next season on a contending Astros roster.