Oct 1, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; A detailed view of the San Diego Padres logo on the field before the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 1, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; A detailed view of the San Diego Padres logo on the field before the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /
After making a big splash for the playoffs in 2015, the San Diego Padres tore down the team and began a rebuilding process. How have they done?
An Introduction
Our minor league top 10 series is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call To The Pen.
He has poured over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. These lists are based out of those conversations.
Each system will have prospects from 10 to 1, and then finish with one newcomer to the system that is worth keeping an eye on that is not in the top 10 at this time.
Conversations are certainly encouraged in the comments section on each system as we go along!
it’s hard to argue against the Padres having the most ceiling of any farm system in baseball
Padres System Review
We’ll just say that a roller coaster ride may have been more smooth lately than being a Padres fan, with the ups and downs that have persisted in the Padres’ approach in the last few years.
After hiring A.J. Preller away from the Texas Rangers in 2014, the Padres went on a spending/trading spree to build up their team for playoff contention in 2015. That approach failed in dramatic fashion, as the team lost 88 games and actually went through three managers on the season.
That season reportedly cost the Padres significant money, which led to a massive rebuilding effort as the team traded off any and all viable assets, attempting to acquire prospects in return.
The team also made a major splash in both free agency and the draft this season, which has also added significant players to their overall farm system.
As I put together my farm system rankings, it’s hard to argue against the Padres having the most ceiling of any farm system in baseball. The issue is that they have nearly no prospects at the AA/AAA levels right now. You’ll see two on this top ten list, but they’ll both be in the majors in 2017, leaving a big hole in the upper minors as far as talent goes.
When I started putting together possible players for the top 10 for the Padres, I had 26 players I was considering. There was one who was over 23 years old, and he did end up making the list. Nearly every single player was 20 or younger, which speaks to the bright future of the organization, but also to the volatility and the length that this rebuild is likely going to take for Padres fans.
While San Diego has seen teams like the Yankees and Brewers recently rebuild their farm systems with major league ready players in a matter of one or two years, their approach to overload the lower levels with talent gives them arguably the deepest system in the game, but also one that Padres fans will be waiting a while to see results from.
Birthdate: 6/3/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: high A, AAA Stats in 2016: .333/.404/.446, 6 HR, 8 SB
Urias slipped a bit under the radar coming out of Mexico in 2013, not signing until December of his first eligible year, rather than July like most 16 year olds would from Latin America.
He’s certainly shown that this was an oversight ever since getting a chance to show himself, really leaping forward with his plus hit tool in the Midwest League in 2015 in his first full season of ball.
Urias showed that his small size does not stop him from making solid contact
He followed that up in 2016 with an excellent season in the Cal League before being promoted to help with El Paso’s playoff push in the Pacific Coast League as they won the PCL title in 2016.
Urias showed that his small size does not stop him from making solid contact and even knocking out a home run in the PCL in his 9 at bats at that level. He was able to hit 26 doubles and 5 triples to go with his 5 home runs in the Cal League on the season.
Urias has exceptional bat control and pitch recognition at the plate. He had a 45/37 BB/K ratio over 475 at bats between the levels in 2016. He doesn’t have exceptional speed nor power to go with that contact, but getting on base at that rate with his average speed allows him to score plenty of runs.
He’s a very “gritty” player in the field, with many seeing him as a future utility type, but he’s got enough range and hands to work at second base as well, and he uses his baseball smarts well in the field and on the bases.
Urias will likely head to AA in 2017, opening the season at 19 and not even turning 20 until mid-season.
Birthdate: 5/23/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, short season A, low A Stats in 2016: 62 1/3 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.13 BB%, 22.43 K%
Allen excelled at the highly-regarded IMG Academy for the high school squad. The Red Sox paid significantly over-slot in order to sign him away from his commitment to South Carolina after drafting him in the 8th round.
Allen saw an uptick in his velocity turn his excellent pitchability into a truly elite prospect. After really impressing in his draft season for the Red Sox, he was traded as part of the Craig Kimbrel trade.
Allen saw an uptick in his velocity turn his excellent pitchability into a truly elite prospect
Allen works with a fastball that touches 95 and sits 90-92. He has excellent late life on the pitch both in sink and late arm side run in the games I watched. That makes it near impossible for hitters to square up his fastball.
Allen utilizes a three-pitch mix of off speed pitches, featuring a curve, slider, and change that each are above-average. His above-average control allows him to utilize all four of his pitches extremely well to get hitters out, whether through weak contact or strikeout.
Allen projects as more of a mid-rotation starter than a frontline guy, but he should be able to move quickly through the system once he is healthy.
He’ll likely open 2017 in the rotation in the high-A California League affiliate.
Birthdate: 1/2/99 (17 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, short season A Stats in 2016: .273/.311/.432, 4 HR, 15 SB
Acquired from the White Sox in the James Shields deal this season, Tatis truly has shown to be an incredible prospect that could even surpass the major league production of his father, Fernando Tatis.
Tatis has a messy swing right now, but he still has excellent bat speed when in the zone. He’s long in his arms and legs, and he struggles to get everything all together, but when he does, the ball absolutely explodes off of his bat, arguably giving him the best raw power in the entire system, which is saying a lot in this high-ceiling system.
giving (Tatis) the best raw power in the entire system, which is saying a lot in this high-ceiling system
Tatis has been around the game significantly, and you can see that in his baseball smarts on the field. He is probably not going to be a shortstop long-term, but he’s so smart on the field right now that he’s able to make it work.
Tatis will likely end up moving to third base eventually, and he has a plus-plus arm that will play very well with his quick instincts at the position to be an elite defender at the position.
He’ll likely end up being sent to low A Midwest League in 2017, and in that league, he’ll be one of the youngest at 18 years old.
Birthdate: 1/9/96 (20 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: low A Stats in 2016: 105 1/3 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 4.54 BB%, 20.41 K%
Nix was caught up in the whole Brady Aiken saga with the Houston Astros in 2014, losing a $1.5M bonus as a 5th round selection when Aiken couldn’t come to agreement. Instead, the Padres selected him in the 3rd round in 2015 and signed for just $900K instead.
Nix is a physically well-developed pitcher at 6’4 and 220ish pounds. He has the typical plus fastball and fringe-plus curve combination that would make an ideal closer candidate, but the Padres still believe he could be an excellent starter.
Nix works with a fastball that has excellent late sinking life
Nix has a max-effort delivery that can sometimes throw him off in his mechanics, which hurts his control at times. He’s really seen major strides in that area this year, allowing him to get much deeper into games.
Nix works with a fastball that has excellent late sinking life. When he is able to stay steady in his mechanics, he has excellent plane on the fastball to make it extremely difficult to get loft on his fastball.
His change took a big step forward with his more steady mechanics this year, flashing plus, but certainly sitting as an above-average pitch that he could get excellent downward plane on as he was able to stay tall in his delivery.
Nix will likely start with the high-A California League in 2017.
Birthdate: 1/8/96 (20 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: low A Stats in 2016: 42 1/3 IP, 0.85 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 3.27 BB%, 46.41 K%
After being selected in the 8th round out of high school in Texas in 2015 by the Marlins, many were curious what to expect from Paddack when he hit pro ball as his best pitch in high school was his change.
That change only played up even more in pro ball. Paddack’s plus control allowed him to carve through hitters in the GCL in 2015. The Marlins moved him to full-season ball in 2016 in the South Atlantic League, and it was no different, as hitters there only were able to muster a .098 batting average against Paddack before he was traded to the Padres for Fernando Rodney.
Paddack has a projectable 6’4 frame that he’s filling out into now
After the trade, he struggled with soreness, and the Padres eventually shut him down after he’d had an even lower ERA in the low-A Midwest League for the Padres. He then required Tommy John surgery.
Paddack has a projectable 6’4 frame that he’s filling out into now, and he had some inconsistencies in his fastball velocity from his previous normal low-90s to a mid-90s sitting velocity, even touching 97. This was expected with his body filling into its frame.
Paddack’s change may be one of the best in the entire minor leagues, rating as a plus-plus change with excellent sink. He also has a curve that’s an average pitch that he locates extremely well.
Paddack will likely miss all of 2017 in TJS recovery but open 2018 in high-A, and with his excellent command/control, he could move very quickly through the Padres system.
Birthdate: 2/10/95 (21 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, short season A, low A Stats in 2016: 37 IP, 5.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 5 BB%, 28.75 K%
Like father Paul Quantrill, Cal has an excellent fastball, but he also brings a full starter’s repertoire to the table that had him rated as one of the best prospects in college before having Tommy John surgery as a sophomore.
Quantrill did not end up pitching at all in college in 2016, but the Padres had seen enough in workouts with Quantrill in front of their scouts in house to make him the #8 overall selection in the 2016 draft.
When he’s healthy, Quantrill has a four-pitch mix that will keep free passes off the bases and also force weak contact frequently. He has a fastball that runs to 97 but sits more 91-94 with plenty of sink and late movement.
When he’s healthy, Quantrill has a four-pitch mix that will keep free passes off the bases and also force weak contact frequently
Quantrill works with a curve and a slider, both of which generate weak contact, and the curve is an excellent swing and miss pitch. His change has excellent sink to mimic the fastball as well.
Though he’s lean, Quantrill has the make up and pitch mix to be a guy who would fit as a #2/3 starter that could eat a ton of high-quality innings.
I would imagine the Padres start Quantrill in full-season ball, whether that’s the Midwest League or California League will be interesting, though once fully healthy, Quantrill should move quickly up the system.
Next: #4
Sep 27, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Hunter Renfroe (71) hits a three run home run during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /
4. Hunter Renfroe, OF
Birthdate: 1/28/92 (24 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA, MLB Stats in 2016: .306/.336/.557, 30 HR, 5 SB
Renfroe was the 13th overall selection in 2013 by the Padres out of Mississippi State after an up and down college career that he finished strong.
Renfroe has moved up step by step in the minor leagues, but he has been consistent in his performance all along, flashing big power and a big arm since he came into pro ball, including his major league debut, when he hit 4 home runs in just 35 at bats.
(Renfroe) has been consistent in his performance all along, flashing big power and a big arm since he came into pro ball
Renfroe has the traditional right field profile with his power and arm, but he also has a quick bat through the zone that should allow him to produce consistent contact rates along with big power. His pitch recognition can wane at times and he can get a little pull-happy, but he has good bat-to-ball skills.
Defensively, Renfroe won’t be a guy to lead the team in stolen bases, but he uses good speed in the field to cover ground just like he does on the base paths once underway. He is athletic and can leap well as well.
Renfroe should be the opening day right fielder in San Diego in 2017.
Next: #3
3. Adrian Morejon, LHP
Birthdate: 2/27/99 (17 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: none Stats in 2016: none
Arguably the best arm to have left Cuba since Aroldis Chapman, Morejon was considered by many to be the best overall prospect by many in the 2016-2017 international free agent market, even ahead of “super prospect” Kevin Maitan.
Morejon comes from the left side with a mix of pitches that has not been seen in this country very often, as he mixes in a knuckle ball into a plus mix of pitches.
Morejon can touch 96 with his fastball and sits more in the low-90s with tremendous control for a teenager. He also works with a plus curve and change, which is incredible to see a teenager have the feel he does for both pitches.
The knuckler is more of a power knuckle ball in the lines of R.A. Dickey, but the incredible part is that he seems to have the ability to mix in the knuckler with his other pitches in a sequence, something almost never seen with a typical knuckleballer.
Morejon quite simply has #1/ace upside if it comes together at even the 90% level with his pitch mix and talent level. The Padres will certainly let him move slowly up the system to ensure he is experiencing success as he goes, but he is someone that is truly special.
Morejon is likely going to open in extended spring and go to rookie ball to start his 2017.
Next: #2
Sep 28, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Mannuel Margot (70) dives back to first during the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /
Birthdate: 9/26/94 (22 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA, MLB Stats in 2016: .304/.351/.426, 6 HR, 30 SB (minor league stats only)
Margot was traded by the Red Sox in the 2015-2016 offseason to the Padres in their first “tear down” as a big piece to get Craig Kimbrel to Boston. If the deal was just for Margot alone, there are many in the game who believe that the Padres would have had a steal.
Margot is an elite defensive center fielder, a legit plus fielder who can go get the ball with tremendous range and exceptional reads off the bat. He has an average arm, but he makes it play up by making accurate throws and seemingly always placing himself behind his throws in the field.
Offensively, Margot’s plus contact and plus-plus speed is going to allow him to rack up solid batting averages going forward, but what surprises many is the plate discipline that Margot has, striking out in just around 11% of the time.
While Margot doesn’t walk a ton, he does have good pitch recognition and could quickly spike that rate if he chose to be patient more than attacking pitches for contact. Margot has good strength to his frame and his pitch selection has allowed him to pick the right pitches to unleash his fringe-average power on, and the results have been very positive.
Margot should get the center field job in 2017 in San Diego out of spring training and run with it, literally and figuratively.
Birthdate: 3/9/98 (18 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: low A Stats in 2016: 108 1/3 IP, 4/49 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.54 BB%, 21.55 K%
The primary focus of the major investigation into the misinformation that the Padres were giving teams in pre-trade medical reports, Espinoza was in limbo for about a week as the Red Sox chose not to pursue reversing the deal that sent him to San Diego in exchange for Drew Pomeranz.
Espinoza received plenty of attention as he had a big 2015 in his pro debut when he finished in low-A, really throwing well the entire season, touching triple digits with his fastball and flashing three plus pitches and plus control.
Espinoza’s fastball does reach upper 90s without effort and sits in the mid-90s. The issue with that fastball is that it is fairly flat in movement, and at 6’0 tall, Espinoza doesn’t generate a ton of plane on the ball.
His curve has incredibly tight spin, though he found the pitch would spin hard without great depth when he was more tired as he worked deeper into games this season.
The change is a sinking change that gets excellent weak contact, and he’s shown the ability to locate that pitch throughout the lower half of the zone.
Espinoza showed that perhaps some of the concerns about his size being a future issue could have some merit as he saw his fastball flatten, curve lose depth, and change also flatten out when he got deeper into games this season. With his small frame, many worry that his future will be as a reliever, but he compares quite favorably to Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez.
I could see Espinoza moving to high-A in 2017, and that’s a huge thing for a guy who’s still going to be a teenager for the entire 2017 season.
Next: Newcomer To Watch
Newcomer To Keep An Eye On: Jorge Ona, OF
Birthdate: 12/31/96 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: none Stats in 2016: none
The Padres signed two of the most high-profile Cuban teenagers to enter the major leagues since Yoan Moncada when they inked both Morejon and Ona this season for a reported combined $18 million in signing bonus money.
Ona is a guy who wows scouts just walking on the field with his physical profile. He stands 6′ tall, but he’s listed at 220 pounds, and he’s built like a guy who could play safety in football with the build he has.
Ona has a very mature approach in the batter’s box, having faced quite a bit of breaking stuff already in Cuba, so that will not phase him in his transition to pro ball. However, how he handles premium velocity remains to be seen.
He has an excellent swing with tremendous bat speed within the zone. He has some load before the swing, but it seems akin to a Josh Donaldson/Edwin Encarnacion/Jose Bautista pre-swing load, not anything that puts him to where he couldn’t get through the zone on a 98 MPH fastball.
Ona’s a guy who has a perfect right field profile with a solid ability to handle all three outfield positions and a fringe-plus arm along with plus power and fringe-plus contact ability.
That mature approach may allow the Padres to jump him to full-season ball to start in 2017.
