Philadelphia Phillies Have Options With Odubel Herrera

The Philadelphia Phillies inked Odubel Herrera to an extension earlier this week, buying out his arbitration years and getting the possibility of an extra three years for $30.5M in guaranteed money. This makes Herrera either a low-cost centerpiece to the team, a valuable trade chip, or a low cost bust.

The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Herrera in the Rule 5 Draft a couple of years back, so the success that he has had in his first two big league seasons has been a welcome surprise. The one big cause for concern is that he has been utilizing a high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) in those two years, and if that drops off, will his production at the plate follow suit? In 2015 his BABIP was a ridiculous .387 while he hit for a .297 average and in 2016 his BABIP fell by a fair amount, down to .349, but his average was still fairly good at .286. His wRC+ was almost identical in both seasons at 111 and 110.

In those two seasons, he has been good for a combined 7.8 fWAR, which ranks 11th in baseball among outfielders in that span. That’s not too far behind George Springer‘s 8.3 fWAR.

The one player that has consistently come to mind since Herrera signed his deal has been Adam Eaton, however. Over the past two seasons Eaton has accrued a 9.7 fWAR in his fourth and fifth big league seasons at the ages of 26 and 27. Herrera is still just 24 and will be entering his age 25 season in 2017. Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece on the Herrera deal a couple of days ago, comparing the two players and their contracts, and they’re eerily similar at the point of their extensions. Here’s the thing though: While Eaton has been productive the past two years, holding fWARs of 3.1, 3.7 and 6.0 from 2014 to 2016, Herrera has already outperformed all but Eaton’s breakout 2016 campaign with totals of 4.0 and 3.8.

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That could mean that Herrera is due for a breakout season of his own in the next couple of years, and that could make him a hot commodity on the trade market. Eaton was worth the cost of the #3 and #38 prospects in baseball to the Washington Nationals.

At the moment, the biggest centerfield free agent for next winter is likely to be Lorenzo Cain. He’s also the beginning and end of that list. If a team is looking for a solid option to roam the outfield, they could be calling the Phillies about Herrera, and now, with the Eaton trade and the Herrera contract extension, the ball would certainly be in the Phillies court in terms of negotiations.

Of course, whether or not Herrera hits the market could depend on how well he, and the Phils do in 2017. If Philadelphia takes another step forward and finish at roughly .500, they may be less inclined to start collecting prospects again while losing a big piece of their offense. If they repeat with another 71-win season, however, that could indicate that the rebuild still has another year or two before we start seeing results on the field, and Herrera’s name could certainly come up.

Next: White Sox Avoid Arbitration With Abreu

There is potentially a lot at play here over the next twelve months or so, but at the very least Odubel Herrera has guaranteed himself a life-changing sum of money.