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MLB: Five Aging Stars Primed to Decline in 2017

By Adam Tabakin

Sep 21, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Carlos Beltran (36) hits a two run home run during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 21, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Carlos Beltran (36) hits a two run home run during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 20, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) hits a RBI ground out in the fourth inning against the Chicago Cubs in game five of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. MLB. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 20, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) hits a RBI ground out in the fourth inning against the Chicago Cubs in game five of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. MLB. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /

Adrian Gonzalez – Los Angeles Dodgers – Born: May 8, 1982

Adrian Gonzalez, entering his age-35 season, has displayed remarkable durability in his 11 full MLB seasons starting with his tenure as a San Diego Padre back in 2006. That year he played in 156 games with 631 plate appearances, each of those figures matched or surpassed in the 10 subsequent seasons.

Gonzalez’s average season during this span saw him hitting .292/.364/.495, good for a 135 OPS+, with 27 home runs and 102 RBI. His defense at first base has been consistently strong, earning him four gold gloves. 2016 marked a noticeable decline for the Dodgers’ cleanup hitter, as his 113 OPS+ was the lowest of his career and his defense regressed to somewhere around average.

Last season may have been the start of a trend as opposed to a blip in the radar for Gonzalez. While his batting average increased slightly in 2016 from the previous two seasons, his batting average on balls in play surged 34 points to .328, 10 points above his career average. This suggests further regression is possible.

Gonzalez’s batted ball tendencies also show cause for concern. While his line drive percentage of 26.4% was a career-high, his ground ball percentage surged to 46.2% while his fly ball percentage plummeted to 27.5%. As Gonzalez ages and loses speed (though he never had much to begin with), more ground balls will equal more outs. He is hitting the ball with less authority, as his hard-hit percentage of 32.8% was the second-lowest of his career.

Adrian Gonzalez will still be an adequate major league first baseman, though his 2015 all-star appearance will almost certainly go down as his last.

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