Pittsburgh Pirates Signing of Daniel Hudson an Underrated Move

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been straddling the middle ground this winter, debating whether or not to trade away the face of the franchise in Andrew McCutchen while not making any other splashy moves that will vault them into contention in a seemingly unwindable division. The signing of Daniel Hudson won’t tip the scales too far towards contention, but it will be a move that should pay significant dividends.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jeff Passan, the Pittsburgh Pirates made a move on Monday to improve their pitching staff.

Hudson may be best known for his role in Passan’s book “The Arm” released earlier this year. Hudson was one of the players that was featured while recovering from Tommy John surgery (he has had two of them) and goes into some depth on what it takes both emotionally and physically to return to the mound.

After a seemingly rough 2016 campaign, Hudson’s suitors weren’t necessarily lining up. His 5.22 ERA was inflated by a rough seven innings in July in which he gave up 15 earned runs, which is almost the equivalent of what he allowed in every other month combined (20). It should also be noted that he was pitching as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark. The defense that has played behind him hasn’t done his ERA many favors either, as his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from last year was nearly a run and a half lower at 3.81. A smaller discrepancy also occurred in 2015 when his ERA was a much more respectable 3.86 and his FIP was 3.49.

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According to Statcast, he produces well below league average exit velocity against (85.40 compared to the average of 90.13), except for when he comes down and inside to right-handed batters. Seemingly anything middle-in is leaving with an exit velocity of 95 mph+ unless it’s belt-high.

On the flip side, he does collect a lot of his strikeouts up and in to righties, especially if he goes outside of the zone. 35 of his 58 strikeouts (60.34%) came on pitches in quadrants outside of the strike zone, which suggests that he doesn’t have the “stuff” to straight up challenge hitters, but instead has to pitch his way through frames.

The key to the Hudson signing from the Pittsburgh Pirates vantage point will be their pitching coach, Ray Searage, who has been getting the most out of his pitchers for years. Without Searage, Ivan Nova wouldn’t have the same upside on the free agent market that he does right now. The list of pitchers that have turned their careers around with Searage is impressive: A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez among others.

Since coming back from Tommy John, Hudson has been used primarily as a reliever, making just one start in a three year stint. With an above average spin rate on his fastball (2,366 rpm compared to big league average of 2,241) and a changeup that produces the most swings and misses by percentage of any of his pitches, Searage has plenty to work with in a pitcher like Hudson.

The problem with Hudson’s changeup is that opposing batters also hit .390 off of it, even though it generated the lowest exit velocity out of any of Hudson’s offerings (83.7 mph). The 18.2% of the time that he used his off-speed weapon in 2016 was also the lowest percentage that he has thrown the pitch in his seven year career.

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Think of Daniel Hudson as a jigsaw puzzle. The tools are there for an extremely effective relief option when he dons a Pirate uniform. It will be up to Ray Searage to assemble the pieces like he has done so many times in the past and make this signing an under-the-radar gem.