St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Prospects For 2017

The St. Louis Cardinals uncharacteristically missed the playoffs in 2016. Do they have pieces from the farm that can help them get back to the postseason in 2017?

An Introduction

Our minor league top 10 series is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call To The Pen.

He has poured over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. These lists are based out of those conversations.

Each system will have prospects from 10 to 1, and then finish with one newcomer to the system that is worth keeping an eye on that is not in the top 10 at this time.

Conversations are certainly encouraged in the comments section on each system as we go along!

The team consistently has a farm system that produces useful pieces for the major league club as well as trade chips to help fill holes as needed.

Cardinals System Review

It’s hard to say much negative about how the St. Louis Cardinals have built and run their overall system over the last number of years (outside of their computer usage!).

The team consistently has a farm system that produces useful pieces for the major league club as well as trade chips to help fill holes as needed.

In the last few years, the Cardinals have seen the seeming stranglehold they had on the NL Central begin to fade away as the Pittsburgh Pirates built themselves up into perennial contenders, and then the Chicago Cubs built up to the point of winning the 2016 World Series.

With the Milwaukee Brewers having one of the elite farm systems in the entire game and looking poised to make a leap forward in 2017, the Cardinals will need to use their system well to stay on top.

While there is one elite guy in the system right now, that’s not the true shining grade in this system overall. The outstanding mark the Cardinals get is in their development history and their substantial depth.

The Cardinals tend to draft and develop a certain type of player that will contribute well to their major league model, and while that doesn’t always produce elite prospects, it has shown to be a successful model for them.

Let’s take a look at their top 10!

Next: #10

10. Magneuris Sierra, OF

Birthdate: 4/7/96 (20 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: low A
Stats in 2016: .307/.335/.395, 3 HR, 31 SB

Sierra is one of the most athletically gifted players in the Cardinals system, regardless of position, and certainly he is one of the most exciting outfielders in the system to watch.

At just 20 years old, Sierra really put up very solid numbers in full season A-ball this season, showing excellent speed and instincts on the bases along with the defense that allow people to dream on a possible future center field future for him.

While Sierra has shown the elite speed, he does have future power in his frame as well. His swing generates loud contact, but so far that has resulted in big doubles numbers (29 doubles and 4 triples in 524 at bats in 2016). He may not be a 20+ home run guy, but he has the ability to hit double digits at peak.

Sierra’s game is generated by his speed, however, and right now, he uses that speed in his contact as well, which has led to some needs in his pitch recognition as he’s been quite aggressive at the plate, working to create contact and use his speed to get on base rather than working a walk.

As he can learn to work the count, I truly could see a similar type of player as Kenny Lofton in Magneuris Sierra, but he has a long way to go to get there. For now, Cardinal fans that have a chance should watch him whenever they can as he is a joy to watch play the game.

Sierra should get the push to high-A in 2017 and as he builds that pitch recognition, you’ll see him jump forward to the upper minors.

Next: #9

9. Dylan Carlson, OF

Birthdate: 10/23/98 (18 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie
Stats in 2016: .251/.313/.404, 3 HR, 4 SB

When Carlson’s name was called with the 33rd overall selection, many thought the Cardinals were saving money for other picks rather than picking a guy they truly wanted that early.

Instead, Carlson came out and flashed tools that were certainly viable as a first round selection. He is a switch-hitter with the build to have solid power along with above average speed.

(Carlson) is a switch-hitter with the build to have solid power along with above average speed

Carlson could work well in an outfield corner, but he has the instincts and base athleticism that he’s currently playing center. His arm is above average and could handle right, but he’d probably be more well-suited in left.

Carlson is the son of a coach and has a very high baseball IQ and has the baseball rat mentality that really has allowed him to play up his raw tools thus far. As he keeps working hard, he will be able to play up and develop those tools to their maximum.

Carlson should see short-season ball to allow him to keep developing in 2017, very likely advanced rookie ball or short-season A ball.

Next: #8

8. Junior Fernandez, RHP

Birthdate: 3/2/97 (19 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: low A, high A
Stats in 2016: 122 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.1 BB%, 16.45 K%

Many saw Fernandez light up radar guns in 2015, touching triple digits with his four-seam fastball and regularly touching upper 90s with the pitch late in games.

What velocity hounds didn’t seem to pick up in Fernandez was that his four-seam is really Fernandez’s secondary fastball, and when he did not rack up a ton of strikeouts this season with that velocity, he was immediately written off, in spite of making big strides.

Many saw Fernandez light up radar guns in 2015, touching triple digits with his four-seam fastball and regularly touching upper 90s

The primary fastball Fernandez uses is his two-seam fastball, which works a few MPH slower, but it has tremendous sink and is extremely hard for hitters to drive.

His primary off speed pitch is a plus change that has excellent sink in its own right, allowing Fernandez to attack hitters at multiple speeds low in the zone and generate ground outs.

The slider is a pitch that flashes strike out potential, but he does show some issues with hanging his slider, and if he can work that third pitch down in the zone consistently while using the high-velocity four-seamer up in the zone as an eye-level shifter, he has the opportunity to become a front line type of starter.

After a rough initiation to the Florida State League in 2016, the Cardinals could return Fernandez there to open 2017, and he’d still be one of the youngest players in the league.

Next: #7

7. Sandy Alcantara, RHP

Birthdate: 9/2/95 (21 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: low A, high A
Stats in 2016: 122 2/3 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 11.07 BB%, 28.71 K%

Outside of top prospect Reyes, I think the Cardinals pitcher I heard the most about from scouts was Alcantara. He made a pretty big impression in his 2016 season, only getting better when he bumped up to high-A.

Alcantara is a guy who was signed in 2013 due to his pure velocity, as he’s able to get his fastball up to 101-102 MPH, but due to a lack of movement on the pitch and control issues, he’s struggled to get results with the fastball until this season.

Alcantara is a guy who was signed in 2013 due to his pure velocity, as he’s able to get his fastball up to 101-102 MPH

Interestingly, Alcantara’s best secondary offering is a change up. He has a very good ability to get arm deception with the pitch and some late run on the pitch as well.

Alcantara has been working on two breaking pitches, and each has developed somewhat, though his curve has shown the ability to be a plus pitch for sure with excellent depth with his long arms in his 6’4 frame.

He’ll likely see AA in 2017, whether he opens there or moves there quickly after a start in high-A.

Next: #6

6. Jack Flaherty, RHP

Birthdate: 10/15/95 (21 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: high A
Stats in 2016: 134 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.98 BB%, 22.34 K%

For a guy who came into the 2014 draft with questions about whether he profiled better with the bat or on the mound, Flaherty has truly shown a maturity on the mound that’s impressive, to say the least.

In his second full season, he worked well in high-A as a 20 year old, showing the ability to mix a four-pitch repertoire and figuring out how to use his energy to work deep into games with premier stuff late in the game.

Flaherty has a four pitch mix with just one plus pitch, his change up

Flaherty has a four pitch mix with just one plus pitch, his change up. However, his three other pitches are all above-average pitches, and he shows excellent ability to locate and sequence his pitches, so he plays up beyond a guy with only one true plus offering.

Flaherty has the ability to truly leap forward with his breaking stuff that has shown the ability to be plus pitches. His slider especially is a pitch that has flashed the ability to be a dominant, swing and miss pitch.

Flaherty will make the step up to AA in 2017, and he will have the chance to test his stuff against the hitter-friendly Texas League.

Next: #5

5. Carson Kelly, C

Birthdate: 7/14/94 (22 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: AA, AAA, MLB
Stats in 2016: .289/.343/.395, 6 HR (minor league stats only)

Kelly was drafted as a third baseman who had some power potential, but he has not really developed the bat as he’s moved behind the plate. Instead, he’s become an impressive receiver.

Kelly is a guy that really looks natural behind the plate. He has a plus arm with tremendous footwork behind the plate and the ability to get down to block as well.

At the plate, Kelly was supposed to be a guy who could hit a little but offer big power. Instead, as he’s developed as a catcher, that’s flipped.

Right now, I’d probably put Kelly as a 55 hit and 50 power guy as I do believe the raw power is still there. He has shown surprisingly high ability to recognize pitches and keep his walk rate respectable, and his ability to get the bat through the zone quickly should allow him to have the opportunity to hit for a decent average.

Kelly showed well at the upper minors in 2016, and really has shown defensively to be ready for a big league trial, though there’s some Yadier Molina guy in front of him in the Cardinals clubhouse.

Next: #4

4. Harrison Bader, OF

Birthdate: 6/3/94 (22 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: AA, AAA
Stats in 2016: .267/.335/.452, 19 HR, 13 SB

Bader is a guy who fits the college hitter profile that the Cardinals seem to pursue, guys like Stephen Piscotty, Allen Craig, or Matt Carpenter. Bader has a wide array of skills, but his best attribute coming out of college was considered to be the “professionalism” of his at bats.

Bader has jumped up the ladder in his short time in the system, already reaching AAA in his first full season after being drafted in the third round in 2015.

(Bader) has a solid contact ability, with good bat speed in the zone and excellent ability to apply the barrel to pitches

While the other guys mentioned are most noted for their pure hitting, Bader brings an all-around athleticism to the plate that is rare in the mold of a “Cardinal-type” college hitter.

He has a solid contact ability, with good bat speed in the zone and excellent ability to apply the barrel to pitches as well. He has struggled some with his aggressive approach early in at bats, but he’s also shown that he does know the zone well, just perhaps struggles with pitch type recognition.

Bader has shown the ability to handle all three outfield positions at an average level, but he doesn’t really have a standout ability at any one outfield spot, which is why he’s typically pegged as a left fielder.

Most likely Bader will open 2017 in AAA Memphis, but he’ll be a guy that the Cardinals look to quickly to fill a role if he continues to show the progress that he has in his system.

Next: #3

3. Luke Weaver, RHP

Birthdate: 8/21/93 (23 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: AA, AAA, MLB
Stats in 2016: 83 IP, 1.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.64 BB%, 27.88 K% (minor league stats only)

The Cardinals took advantage of Weaver’s stuff falling off a bit in his draft season of college to see him fall from an early first round pick to their selection at #27 overall in the 2014 draft.

Weaver’s been able to regain his velocity, sitting in the 92-94 range with his fastball and touching 96-97 at its peak with solid late wiggle on the pitch.

Weaver’s best secondary pitch is his change, which is a tremendous pitch that has arm deception, sink, and a touch of cut that really makes it hard for any hitter to truly square up.

His slider and curve both took a step up in his ability to control the pitches in 2016, which allowed both to get better results, but in my viewing, they’re both more average pitches that play up due to location.

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Weaver’s likely not going to be a guy who will be an ace-type in a rotation, but he has the sort of stuff and build to be a solid mid-rotation guy going forward.

He worked his way to the majors this year, and he did see major league hitters square up his breaking pitches much better than minor league hitters did, though he still saw plenty of swing and miss in his major league time as well.

He’s not in the same build, but I compare Weaver in his attacking style and his results to Giants starter Jeff Samardzija. He could have runs of elite starts and some clunkers, but in the end, he will average out as a solid guy that eats 185-200 innings per year with a touch above average numbers overall.

Weaver should get a shot to compete for a rotation spot in the majors this year, but he did only get one AAA start, so he could head back to Memphis if the MLB rotation is full.

Next: #2

1. Alex Reyes, RHP

Birthdate: 8/29/94 (22 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA, MLB
Stats in 2016: 65 1/3 IP, 4.96 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 11 BB%, 31.96 K% (minor league stats only)

Reyes may have been the first to circumvent the draft by moving to a Latin country and establishing residency in order to get a significant bonus, something multiple players have done since he did this in 2012 after moving from New Jersey to the Dominican.

The Cardinals were more than happy to sign him as an 18 year old with front line stuff in a mid-90s fastball that can reach triple digits along with a tremendous power curve.

Reyes has a very solid change, and he’s been willing to use it ever since signing, which has allowed him to develop his usage, sequencing and control of the pitch.

The biggest issue for Reyes has been his control and command of all of his pitches as he’s filled out into his 6’3 frame, but he’s found that to be much less of an issue since roughly mid-season 2015 when his delivery seemed to “click”, and he’s been able to repeat it well since.

He did have a very good exposure to the big leagues in 2016, used in relief initially and making 5 solid starts for the Cardinals.

Reyes is one of the absolute elite prospects in the game and a guy who profiles as a front line starter. He’ll start the 2017 season in St. Louis.

Next: Newcomer To Watch

Newcomers To Keep An Eye On: Dakota Hudson and Connor Jones, RHPs

Birthdate: Hudson – 9/15/94, Jones – 10/10/94 (both 22 years old)
Level(s) Played in 2016: Hudson – rookie/high-A, Jones – rookie/short season A
Stats in 2016: Hudson – 13 1/3 IP, 0.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 12.07 BB%, 32.76 K%; Jones – 14 2/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 5 BB%, 18.33 K%

I combine Jones and Hudson because they fit together so well in the methodology the Cardinals use in acquiring players like these two.

While not the same pitcher by any means, Hudson and Jones were both highly-regarded college starters coming into the 2016 season with some buzz about each figuring at the end of the top 10 of the draft.

With the Cardinals having multiple picks early due to competitive balance picks and compensation picks for losing free agents, they were set up well to get some big pieces, so getting two falling college starters really fits the Cardinals mold.

Hudson is more of the upside pitcher, with a big plus fastball and plus slider/cutter combination while also throwing a curve and change that rate as above-average.

Hudson has a bit of effort in his delivery that leads some to believe he’ll end up in the bullpen and struggle to sustain consistency deep into games, which is why the Cardinals were able to get him with the 34th overall selection.

Jones fell all the way to the 2nd round with a plus fastball, fringe-plus slider, average curve, and average change pitch mix after being the ace of the College World Series champs his sophomore year.

Many felt Jones was more of a high-floor guy without much projection, but he is a sinker/slider type that could project well in the middle of a rotation and eat innings.

These are the types of guys that slip down boards and end up producing well in the Cardinals system, so it should be interesting to track how each does going forward.

Next: Mariners Top 10 Prospects

Agree? Disagree? Someone you have a question about from the system? Leave a comment down below!