Predicting the 2021 MLB Playoffs
Reporting from the 2020 Baseball Winter Meetings, predictions for the upcoming 2021 baseball season have a lot of familiar teams back in the playoffs and shortstops continue to win MVP awards. The World Series picks for 2021 looks a lot like 2020 in the NL but the re-emergence of a former dynasty in the AL should make for an interesting World Series.
December 20, 2020 – The Winter Meetings in Bismarck, North Dakota have just wrapped up and were the longest Winter Meetings in history as Bismarck Municipal Airport was closed due to nine feet of snow overnight and teams were forced to keep talking until they were allowed to fly home 48 hours after baseball’s executives had all originally planned. No one was complaining though as these meetings are setting the stage for 2021 to be one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory.
All eyes are on the New York Yankees and their new manager Derek Jeter. Jeter is expected to be a slam-dunk selection to join Cooperstown’s elite, as the Hall of Fame will announce in a couple of weeks whether or not Jeter will join recent entrants Ken Griffey Jr (2016) and Chipper Jones (2018) as stars getting into the Hall on the first attempt. It will be expected that Jeter will just miss getting 100% of the ballots in his favor, as e-mail leaks from two suspicious voters from Boston have conspired to ensure he doesn’t enter the hall unanimously.
The MLB Expansion Committee will meet in Spring Training to recommend two new teams to begin play in 2022 and transform each league’s three divisions of five teams to four divisions of four. In a bid to stay relevant, the Tampa Bay Rays wanted divisions determined by payroll spent instead of geography but were out-voted 29-1 which often happens. Nobel Peace Prize 2019 Winner Donald J. Trump has been active with his latest campaign “Make America’s Neighbors Great At Baseball” and has been using Twitter 2.0 to push hard for expansion candidates Mexico City and an open-for-business Havana to be welcomed to the Majors, although the front runners still appear to be a re-born Montreal Expos and the Los Angeles Empire of Riverside with Charlotte, Nashville and Portland trailing slightly, although all would be fantastic markets for pro sports.
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In other news making the rounds ahead of the 2021 season, Giants’ first baseman and living legend Buster Posey has been asked to practice in left field to make room in the Giants’ infield for a top prospect and it is hard for many to remember a time he was ever a catcher. Mike Trout is still waiting for the Angels to surround him with adequate talent but continues to put up historic numbers and has finished first or second in AL MVP voting in the past nine seasons and Bobby Bonilla only has 15 years left of getting paid on his contract even though he retired in 2001.
So who is the front runner to get to the 2021 World Series? It looks like the teams that make the playoffs will be some familiar faces. The evaluation criteria for predicting the 2021 playoff teams are as follows:
- Current stars hitting their prime and forecasting statistics based on what they have accomplished in their careers so far.
- Elite prospects who are projected to be two to three years into their career and contributing like the young players of 2016 did.
- Ability of the Front Office to stay in front of the curve.
- Money and anticipating that RSN (Regional Sports Networks) will continue to pay current fees and bigger markets will continue to have a financial advantage.
The Wild Card Round
NL: All season long it is predicted that two teams from the NL East will go toe to toe for the division crown. Constructed using different tactics, the top of the Phillies order – leadoff hitter and CF Odubel Herrerra, all-star SS J.P. Crawford and last year’s HR derby champion Maikel Franco – will keep Philadelphia (91-71) within striking distance most of the season of the New York Mets (89-73) and their vaunted rotation of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz and allow them to overcome them by two games in the last week of September when all is said and done.
The Mets will regret not taking the division and lose to the Milwaukee Brewers (88-74) and the best outfield in the NL made up of Brett Phillips, Lewis Brinson and Corey Ray. SS Orlando Arcia will set the table for the Brewers lineup and despite finishing sixteen games behind the NL Central leaders, Milwaukee won’t apologize for making the playoffs and will go to Citi Field for the Wild Card game and come out with a win with lefty Josh Hader throwing a complete game 4-hitter to knock out the Mets.
AL: Getting to extra innings in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series is the closest Cleveland has come to getting the elusive championship that is now seventy-two seasons and counting. The last few seasons injuries have derailed their chances of post-season success but in 2021, Cleveland (93-69) will be one of the wild-card teams with a typical well-balanced Cleveland-style team. AL MVP prediction SS Francisco Lindor (with four-time MVP Trout coming in second) will lead the offense alongside CF Tyler Naquin and young slugging 1B Bobby Bradley. In the Wild Card game, Cleveland will take on the Boston Red Sox (93-69) and the core four players they have had for years: RF Mookie Betts, CF Andrew Benintendi, SS Xander Bogaerts and recently re-signed ace SP Chris Sale. Despite Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski’s big moves at the Winter Meetings every year, this year those moves won’t pay off either as Cleveland will rally to beat the Red Sox in the winner-take-all wild card and advance to the divisional round to play the dreaded New York Yankees.
2021 Divisional Round (AL)
New York Yankees (4), Cleveland (2)
Uncharacteristically in fourth place in the AL East in 2016, the New York Yankees traded two relievers for talent that has become the heart of the current team. SS Gleyber Torres, OF Billy McKinney, OF Clint Frazier and SP Justus Sheffield were elite prospects added to 2B Jorge Mateo and OF Blake Rutherford to form one of the best young cores in baseball. Building in an organic way with prospects is not the usual way the Yankees go about their business and with all of these arbitration-eligible players on the roster, the Yankees had over $100 million per season available for payroll to chase a big bat and augment their oodles of young talent. Of course, the July 31st 2018 trade of SS Starlin Castro, OF Aaron Judge and SP James Kaprielian and cash to the Washington Nationals for free agent-to-be DH Bryce Harper and his subsequent signing to baseball’s first $400 million contract was the kind of splash of cash that traditional Yankee fans were used to seeing. The new Murderers’ Row and 1-2 punch of Sheffield and Luis Severino will see the Yankees (98-64) cruise to the AL East title by five games over their rivals from Boston.
In the divisional round, Cleveland will win the first game at Yankee Stadium but the talent gap will be too large to overcome and former Cleveland prospect Clint Frazier will be named MVP of the series for New York with an OBP of .521 over the course of the six game series.
Houston Astros (4), Chicago White Sox (3)
Looking back to the Winter Meetings in December 2016, the elite prospects acquired by the Chicago White Sox put them in position to contend after a dramatic tear-down that saw a few lean seasons. Barely anyone noticed with the sustained success of their neighbors to the north. With Cuban slugger Yoan Moncada anchoring the lineup and a trio of young starters in Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and flamethrower Michael Kopech who will each win a minimum of 17 games, the talent acquired back in 2016 will push the White Sox to a 2021 AL Central title.
The most fearsome lineup in 2020 will duplicate their success in 2021. Despite calls to trade excess hitting for a couple of strong starters, Houston’s lineup centered around Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, A.J. Reed and Yulieski Gurriel has crushed opposing pitching and fans have flocked to watch a number of games that end 10 – 8. Many wondered if Houston would recover from the free agent defection of hit king Jose Altuve in 2019 after his team options ran out and he signed a 5 year, $150 million dollar deal with the new deep pocket ownership group in Miami. In 2020, Houston fell out of contention in the last week of the regular season. However, in 2021, it is expected that they will not only take the next step and make the playoffs but they will go one step further and face off against the Yankees for the AL pennant.
2021 Divisional Rounds – NL
Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Milwaukee Brewers (0)
The young hitters of the Brewers will be no match for Los Angeles (101-61) as the Dodgers will roll out their rotation of ‘3 Aces’ and sweep the Brewers from the postseason. The 2020 World Series champs are led by long-time leader and multiple Dodger record-holder Clayton Kershaw and his twenty-something fellow Aces – Julio Urias and Jose de Leon – who will dominate the rest of the NL again and will not lose back-to-back series all season. Predicted NL MVP Corey Seager will hit .375 with lineup protection from 1B Cody Bellinger and CF Joc Pederson. While their well-publicized pursuit to acquire Mike Trout and get him to move across town failed at these Winter Meetings, it is not expected to affect team chemistry going forward and the combatants for the NL pennant will be familiar foes as the Dodgers and Cubs have met to represent the NL in three of the last five NL championships. There is no reason not to think that in 2021, the outcome will be four match-ups from the last six.
Chicago Cubs (4), Philadelphia Phillies (1)
The Cubs stormed back after losing the first game of this series to win four straight and set up another NL championship series with the Dodgers. Despite SS J.P. Crawford hitting .600 for the series, the rest of the Phillie bats were stymied and the 3-4-5 hitters for the Cubs (LF Kris Bryant, 1B Anthony Rizzo, C Kyle Schwarber) will be responsible for belting two home runs per game in each of the Cubs’ victories.
Since winning their first World Series in 108 years in 2016, the Cubs (102-60) have played with a relaxed manner and have added two more World Series titles for the Wrigley Faithful; in 2017 over Boston and ending the out of nowhere run of Seattle in 2019. With a record of 104-58, the Cubs have treated the regular season like extended spring training and will spend the season preparing for the inevitable Championship series against the Dodgers. SP Dylan Cease stepped effortlessly into Jake Arrieta’s role as ace and grizzled veteran SP Jon Lester just continues to produce at a high level and took a hometown discount to stay with the Cubs when his giant contract signed in 2014 expired.
Manager Joe Maddon has announced that 2021 will be his last season and his policy of rotating players to keep them fresh will have a last hurrah as well as the Cubs’ manager in waiting for 2022, current bench coach David Ross has said he is going to free up his stable of superstars (LF Kris Bryant, SS Addison Russell, 3B Jeimer Candelario, 2B Ian Happ) to help them compete for individual awards that always seem to go to less deserving players who can build better statistical cases by playing 25 more games per season. The last individual award a Cub player has won came back in 2016 with Kris Bryant’s MVP award due to Maddon’s rotation policy.
2021 World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers (4), New York Yankees (1)
It will be back-to-back championships for the Dodgers as their league-leading payroll has bankrolled another World Series title for L.A. With plenty of references to the three battles in the late 70s-early 80s between the two giant franchises, the first pitch for the 2021 edition of the Series will come from the Dodgers former manager from that era, the 94 year old Tommy Lasorda, who will fire a fastball right down the heart of the plate to great applause at Chavez Ravine. While the games will be close and will reveal the Yankees to be a team on the verge of being the next AL dynasty, there is no competing with the Dodgers rotation as each of the three starters will pitch into the seventh inning. Series MVP Clayton Kershaw – the graybeard of Dodger pitchers – will pitch two complete games and strike out Yankee slugger Bryce Harper 6 times over his two starts, including the final out of Game 5 to keep the World Series in Southern California.
[Note from 2016] In the good ol’ days (like 2010), big market teams did not employ a strategy to stockpile as many of the Top 100 / Elite prospects as possible that the Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs have acquired now to augment their financial advantages. It is tough to see a small-market team like the Moneyball-era A’s or the Extra 2% Rays breaking through in the next five seasons but there will always be innovators to create new organizational strategies. If there is a team that you see building themselves into a 2021 contender that I missed, please leave who you think in the comments and why. It is interesting to speculate about the future that the current General Managers are building.