Feb 23, 2016; Viera, FL, USA; A grounds keeper spray paints a Washington Nationals logo during a work out at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals finished short of their pursuit of the World Series in 2016. After some big offseason moves, what is left on the farm to help in 2017?
An Introduction
Our minor league top 10 series is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call to the Pen.
He has pored over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. These lists are based out of those conversations.
Each system will have prospects from 10 to 1, and then finish with one newcomer to the system that is worth keeping an eye on that is not in the top 10 at this time.
Conversations are certainly encouraged in the comments section on each system as we go along!
The Nationals have bid high on tools on the international market and been willing to take risks in the draft
Nationals System Review
Washington pushed their chips in to the center of the table with their trade for Adam Eaton this offseason, trading three of the guys who would have been top six guys on this list in their deal for Adam Eaton, and they’re still in talks to find yet another piece to really push all-in for the 2017-2018 seasons before they start to see guys like Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, and others hit free agency after the next two seasons.
The Nationals have bid high on tools on the international market and been willing to take risks in the draft on guys who had Tommy John surgery or have seen either a performance spike or drop just before drafting, usually a yellow flag to most teams.
This has led to a lot of high-ceiling prospects in the Nationals system, but they’ve also seen many of those guys flame out as well before they hit the upper minors.
The Nationals have actually seen some of the most successful players in their development be guys who were more high-floor than high-ceiling types, guys who have developed along the way as solid fourth outfielder types or back end starters.
While the Nationals have this window, it makes sense to push all in, especially with their financial position in the future in limbo currently.
Birthdate: 8/28/94 (22 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: short season A, low A, high A Stats in 2016: .296/.349/.401, 4 HR, 25 SB
Gutierrez was signed by the Nationals from the Dominican in April of 2013, and he’s worked his way up the system as an under-the-radar guy the whole way.
All Gutierrez has done along the way is hit and field well, which is why it’s surprising that his name is rarely mentioned among Nationals prospects. In fact, this is me going completely on a limb as none of the scouts and guys I talked with mentioned Gutierrez as a guy to consider in my top 10, but I’d seen quite a bit of him at Hagerstown and thought he had a place on this list after the Adam Eaton trade opened some spots.
All Gutierrez has done along the way is hit and field well
Gutierrez has a short, compact stroke from the right side that generates a ton of contact, but it does not result in a ton of power, though he is physically strong and can put on a show in batting practice.
He is a better athlete than his average speed grade would indicate, but that’s mostly due to below-average first-step quickness. He has very solid speed at top gear, and he has shown good instincts on the bases, allowing him to steal well, even without great first steps.
Defensively, Gutierrez has solid hands and an excellent arm that should profile as a plus defender at third base. His overall athleticism would also play well in an outfield corner if such a move was needed.
Gutierrez has shown an ability to limit strikeouts in his short pro career thus far, and if he can add in taking some more walks on top of that, he could really jump up lists like this one.
Gutierrez will likely open the 2017 season in high A.
Birthdate: 1/5/92 (24 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA, MLB Stats in 2016: 124 2/3 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.58 BB%, 20.49 K% (minor league stats only)
Perhaps it’s prospect fatigue, perhaps it’s that he’s moved back and forth from the Nationals elsewhere in trades, perhaps it’s that he’s not overwhelmed with numbers in the minor leagues, but for some odd reason, everyone seems to have written off Cole.
A lanky 6’5″ righty, Cole has a solid four-pitch mix that has always been one that get rave reviews for its blend more than its elite quality. He’s never been a guy who’s likely to profile as an ace, but his quality control should give him a chance to be a solid back-end starter.
He may not profile as an ace, but Cole should be a guy to keep an eye on
Cole has a fastball that sits in the low-90s and can run up to 95-96 with excellent location and good plane from his long arms. He works his change up well off of the fastball, getting plenty of weak contact on the pitch from both sides of the plate.
Cole’s slider and curve are both average pitches, but he does locate them well to get swings on the slider and weak pop ups on the curve when he’s going well.
Cole got eight starts in the big leagues in 2016, and from my viewing, he was pressing in those starts, as his typical easy, free-flowing delivery seemed tempo’d and forced. As a result, he didn’t get the extension on his pitches, leaving them up in the zone, and he saw plenty of them get hit well.
He may not profile as an ace, but Cole should be a guy to keep an eye on, especially in trade talks, as he could be a guy to step into the back end of a lot of rotations in baseball right now and do quite well.
Cole is likely going to be returning to AAA with no openings in the Washington rotation, unless he’s traded before season’s beginning.
Birthdate: 8/15/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie Stats in 2016: .277/.307/.349, 1 HR, 1 SB
Franco shuffled a bit since coming stateside in 2015, repeating the GCL this year after having a solid year there last year, primarily due to a late start this year due to some back issues, reportedly.
He struggled to show the same offensive prowess he displayed in 2015 in his repeat of GCL this season, especially in the power department, which is to be his calling card offensively.
With excellent build and quick twitch to his swing, Franco profiles for plus power
Franco split time in the DSL between short and third, but his future pro home is most likely third base, with a plus arm and excellent instincts for the position. That was one area of his game unaffected this season by the injury was the defense, as many raved about his abilities at the hot corner.
With excellent build and quick twitch to his swing, Franco profiles for plus power, and he’s shown such in the batting cage, but he’s struggled to put it together in games, especially this season with the back issues.
He’s got a very quick bat, but he does have a bit of a long path to the plate, which could lead to some contact issues down the road against more advanced pitching, but it should still allow him to profile as a guy who could hit .250-.260 with solid power, which is no slouch with the glove he should bring to third.
Franco needs to stay healthy, and the Nationals will ease him along as he shows he’s ready, likely spending another year in short-season ball this year.
Birthdate: 6/1/94 (22 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: high A, AA Stats in 2016: .276/.332/.374, 3 HR, 39 SB
Stevenson was the second round selection of the Nationals in the 2015 draft after a very solid career at LSU, where he outplayed teammate Alex Bregman in most statistical categories.
He was drafted primarily for his plus speed and elite defense, and both of those have kept up as a pro, flashing elite routes to balls in center field and showing very good instincts on the base paths, both in stealing bases and in base running.
Stevenson drew rave reviews at the Arizona Fall League this season for his exceptional defense in center field
Stevenson drew rave reviews at the Arizona Fall League this season for his exceptional defense in center field as well as the strides he’s made in his pitch recognition and contact ability, which should allow him to profile near the top of the lineup, where his speed can truly be an asset.
While Stevenson does not exhibit home run power, he’s shown an ability to barrel balls into gaps and use his speed well to turn that into extra bases, totaling 33 non-HR extra base hits with 23 doubles and 10 triples last season.
Stevenson will start his 2017 in AAA most likely, but even with the addition of Adam Eaton to the Nationals outfield, he may be the best center fielder from the major leagues on down through the system.
Birthdate: 12/10/94 (22 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: short season A Stats in 2016: .230/.305/.341, 1 HR, 2 SB
Neuse had a lot of high school draft buzz, but he had a strong commitment to Oklahoma, so he was essentially ignored in the draft. He had two “meh” years with Oklahoma before one monster season in his draft year, when he hit .360/.465/.646 for the Sooners.
The Nationals drafted Neuse in the second round and sent him to the New York-Penn League, where Neuse found more results in his first two collegiate seasons – not bad, but not exactly standout, either.
Neuse has a very solid swing from the right side, keeping the bat in the zone for quite some time, which should allow for excellent contact ability against premium breaking stuff.
Neuse has a very solid arm defensively, but his instincts at third are still a work in progress after moving over from playing shortstop in college. If he does not work at third, his arm strength is certainly such that he could handle the outfield.
Neuse is a solid all-around athlete, and if he can make the same adjustments in pitch recognition at the pro level that he made at the collegiate level in his final year, he’s a guy who has above-average power and speed to play up to a 15/15 or 20/20 HR/SB sort of guy.
Neuse will likely be moved up to full-season ball in 2017.
Birthdate: 6/26/92 (24 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA Stats in 2016: 157 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.64 BB%, 20.15 K%
In a system with big arms the last few seasons in Lucas Giolito, Joe Ross, Reynaldo Lopez, and the like, it was easy to see why a guy like Voth would get lost in the shuffle.
After all, Voth is not a guy who has an elite pitch, with none of his pitches ranking as a plus offering. He’s not big, at 6’2″ and 210-220 pounds, and he’s not a guy who racks up stats to blow anyone away either.
Voth has just been consistently good every single step of the way and been adding more and more to his development as he has progressed
Voth has just been consistently good every single step of the way and been adding more and more to his development as he has progressed up the system in a very under-the-radar way.
Usually operating around 89-92 with his fastball, Voth doesn’t blow the pitch buy anyone, but he has good cutting action on the pitch and natural deception in his delivery to get weak contact on the pitch. He can top the pitch out around 95.
His slider is a solid pitch, getting swings and misses when he is able to stay on top of the pitch and get excellent late break. His change has excellent deception in arm angle and gets weak contact for him as well.
Voth’s best attribute is his control. He may not have a standard delivery, but he repeats it very well and that allows him to have all of his stuff play up even further.
One of those guys who won’t likely sparkle due to raw stuff, Voth is a guy who has a high likelihood of being a solid mid-rotation starter down the road, whether that’s for the Nationals or for someone else. He definitely made an impression in the AFL this season with many teams on hand to see, so he could be used by the Nats in trade discussions.
Voth has had a full season in AAA at this point, so there’s not much left for him to prove there, but that might be where he has to return without an opening in the Nationals rotation.
Birthdate: 9/3/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie Stats in 2016: .244/.323/.452, 4 HR, 1 SB
Possibly the best last name in baseball, Kieboom has two other brothers that play the game, including brother Spencer Kieboom, who is in the Nationals system as a catcher.
Kieboom turned plenty of heads last summer before his senior year of high school on the showcase circuit when he handled premier velocity and breaking stuff with ease in making solid and powerful contact.
Kieboom’s biggest offensive attribute is his bat speed
Kieboom is one of what could be up to four third basemen on the Nationals list, which leads to a big of a logjam in the system at the position, but Kieboom won’t have to move immediately, as he has the hands and current range to keep playing short, though his solid arm will allow him to move to third if he fills out to the point where he requires a move off short.
Kieboom’s biggest offensive attribute is his bat speed. He is able to make solid contact with pitches throughout the hitting zone due to the bat speed, and he flashes plus raw power that has translated to gap power mostly in game so far.
Kieboom will most likely open 2017 with a short season team, but it wouldn’t surprise if he hits well to see him finish in one of Washington’s full-season affiliates.
Birthdate: 2/25/93 (23 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: high A, AA Stats in 2016: 121 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 5.79 BB%, 24.55 K%
Considered a possible top 10 overall selection in the 2014 draft before having Tommy John surgery just before the draft, Fedde fell to the Nationals at the 18th overall selection, and like Lucas Giolito before him, he’s benefited from the patient approach of the Nationals system.
Fedde has a solid three pitch mix that he’s worked to fill out more to become more able to solidly control. With his 6’4″ frame, he was often getting off in his delivery and putting excess stress on his arm to overcome that.
As he’s recovered from the surgery, he did well to fill out his long frame, and he’s shown up with excellent mechanics, repeating them very well in 2016 across two levels.
Fedde’s fastball runs up to 96-97, but it typically sits more in the 91-93 range in game, and he gets good extension to the plate, so the ball tends to appear even faster to hitters.
He has a very solid slider that he runs in the low 80s with excellent depth to miss bats. His slider has benefited the most from his repeated mechanics, and thus his strikeout rate as well.
Fedde’s change is what has kept him in the eye as a future starter as he has a very solid change that creates weak contact. He can get lackadaisical with the pitch and telegraph it a bit, but when he focuses on the arm deception of the pitch, it’s extremely hard for hitters to square up as they don’t get a good read on it until the last minute.
Fedde had a solid 2016 in his first full season back from TJS, and he’ll likely be eased back in innings some by the Nationals still in 2017, starting in AA and pushing to AAA with a possible late season call up.
Birthdate: 10/25/98 (18 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, short season A Stats in 2016: .368/.420/.553, 5 HR, 5 SB
While Nationals fans see Victor Robles rising to the top of prospect rankings boards this season, they should be on the look out for Soto to do just the same thing next year.
Soto is not the same type of prospect as Robles, as he’s built to be a power hitter from the left side with a smooth swing that can get plenty of excellent contact throughout the strike zone, using the entire field.
He’s also not a center fielder by nature, as his strong arm is more suited for a corner, and he’s a solid runner, but more when under way than through quick first steps, leading to a corner outfield being his best destination.
The reports I had from people who saw him in the NYPL stated that they’d not seen a 17-year-old with an approach as mature as Soto’s come through their league in recent memory.
Soto does have a very unique ability for a teenage power hitter in that he has very solid pitch recognition and zone recognition and the patience to draw a walk, with a 17/29 BB/K ratio on the season, including a 3/4 BB/K rate in 21 AB in the NYPL against mostly guys 3-5 years his senior.
The Nationals pushed Robles to full-season Hagerstown after a similar performance, so it will remain to be seen how the Nationals handle Soto in 2017, but his future is very, very bright.
Birthdate: 5/19/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, low A, high A Stats in 2016: .280/.376/.423, 9 HR, 37 SB
Considering the prices of many Latin America signings and draft bonuses, the fact that Robles was signed for $225K may soon be considered one of the bigger bargains in recent international signings.
Robles has been nothing but impressive at every step since making his debut in 2014 in the DSL. Coming stateside in 2015, he tore through the GCL and even got a promotion to Auburn in the New York-Penn League.
At just 18 on opening day, Robles was one of the youngest players on a full-season roster, but he was also one of the most dynamic, exploding out of the gate with Hagerstown in low-A before being promoted after just 64 games to high-A.
He did catch a bit of injury bug that slowed him down in the Carolina League, but overall his season numbers are incredibly impressive when you consider that he didn’t turn 19 until mid-May of the season. In fact, in all of 2016, he had a total of 12 plate appearances in his 504 against pitchers who were younger than him on the entire season.
Robles will likely be a consensus top 10 prospect in the game this offseason due to his elite blend of contact ability, double-plus speed, and plus defensive ability with a plus arm. The only tool that isn’t currently plus is his power, but he’s even flashed plus raw power in the cage.
The big item left for Robles to check off is his strike zone recognition. He has an aggressive approach, which led to a low number of walks, and while his strikeout rate was not exorbitant by any means, it was still double his walk rate, and he’ll need to keep that in line.
It’s very feasible that Robles opens 2017 in AA as a teenager.
Next: Newcomer to Watch
Newcomer to Keep an Eye On: Jesus Luzardo, LHP
Birthdate: 9/30/97 (19 years old) Level(s) Played in 2016: none Stats in 2016: none
Luzardo fits with the Nationals recent trend of grabbing a top-end talent that needs Tommy John surgery out of high school or college, letting him work in their system during his recovery, and then benefiting from having the high-end talent for a lower draft position than would warrant, typically.
Luzardo this spring was being pushed forward into the top 5 high school lefties in the class, a very probable first round selection, before he needed elbow surgery that wiped away the rest of his senior season. The Nationals picked him up in the third round.
Luzardo was very possibly over-throwing, trying to impress scouts, which is too bad as his natural repertoire has plenty to like.
He’s a physically mature pitcher for 19, going 6’1″ and just over 200 pounds, and his pitch mix and delivery is mature as well, with a heavy, sinking fastball that could touch 93-94 and sat 89-91.
He worked his curve at multiple speeds, and the multiple speeds also led to multiple depths on the curve, giving him different looks to hitters on the pitch.
His change is very possibly his best overall pitch, as he has exceptional arm deception with the pitch, gets very similar movement out of the hand on the pitch, and locates the ball extremely well. This allows him to get plenty of swing and miss on the change.
Luzardo will come into a system that has shown success with Lucas Giolito and Erick Fedde in drafting high schoolers with TJS and building them in their system, so the path for Luzardo is certainly bright.
He’ll likely get his first taste of pro ball when he’s ready to throw in 2017 in rookie league.
