Hall of Fame: Just One Slam-Dunk Each of Next Three Years
The Baseball Hall of Fame will see a number of great players voted on over the next three years, but only one each year is a slam-dunk for first ballot enshrinement.
There is a great deal of discussion taking place right now in regards to voting on Baseball Hall of Fame ballots.
A number of truly worthy candidates are on this year’s ballot, players who should absolutely find themselves enshrined one day. These include the greatest player who I ever saw in person, Barry Bonds. He still may fall just short this year as voters continue to evaluate his PED usage.
There would appear to be four men at the current time who stand a reasonable chance of gaining enshrinement in the summer of 2017.
When results of the BBWAA voting are released in three weeks we could very well find as many as four players elected. Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Trevor Hoffman, and Ivan Rodriguez each could gain that measure of baseball immortality.
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Of those players, only Rodriguez is a first ballot nominee, and the result for ‘Pudge’ is likely to be a close one.
Bagwell is in his 7th season on the ballot. Voters have struggled with his possible PED involvement. Raines is in his 10th and final year on the regular ballot. Some struggle with his use of cocaine during the 1980’s. Hoffman is in this 2nd year on the ballot. A number of voters still struggle with the importance of the closer position.
Of the players who will enter the voting process for the first time between 2018-2020, only one player each year would appear to be a no doubt, first ballot Hall of Famer.
Let’s examine each ballot for the first time nominees, and make that obvious call to the Hall.
2018 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME BALLOT
There are a handful of players who enter the Baseball Hall of Fame voting process a year from now who I believe should be enshrined. But most of these will not become first ballot Hall of Famers.
Leading this group is shortstop Omar Vizquel, an 11x Gold Glove Award winner. Over his 24-year career, Vizquel played more games (2,709) at the shortstop position than anyone in big league history.
Another is affable slugger Jim Thome. A fan favorite everywhere he played, Thome has been enshrined by both the Cleveland Indians and Philadelphia Phillies in their team halls of fame. ‘Big Jim’ bashed 612 home runs over his 22-year career.
It may only take 2-3 voting years for each of those players to make the Hall. For other worthy players such as Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen, and Jamie Moyer the wait may be much longer.
The one player who will not have to wait at all is Atlanta Braves icon Chipper Jones. The resume includes a World Series championship, National League MVP, and 8 NL All-Star games. Jones also won 2 Silver Sluggers, and had five Top 10 NL MVP vote finishes. He is the lone first ballot honoree in this group.
2019 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME BALLOT
Something tells me that once they are eligible and on the ballot, over the next decade this group is going to be hotly debated.
Roy Halladay won the Cy Young Award in both the National and American Leagues with the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays respectively. He also finished as the runner-up for the award on two other occasions. ‘Doc’ tossed a Perfect Game and a playoff no-hitter. But I don’t believe he will be a first ballot HOFer.
Another worthy pitcher who will probably not make it the first time out is Andy Pettitte. The lefty has 256 career wins and recognition as one of the New York Yankees “Core Four” greats. He will likely make it. He is just going to have to wait a year or two.
A trio of truly outstanding hitters in 7x All-Star Michael Young, 6x All-Star Lance Berkman, and 5x All-Star Todd Helton will not make it on the first ballot. They will become major discussion pieces during the 2020’s. That is, as long as any of them fails to gain election.
ENTER SANDMAN
One player who will need little to no discussion will be the greatest closer in the history of the game, Mariano Rivera. The 13x AL All-Star finished among the Top Five in AL Cy Young Award voting five times. Furthermore, Rivera received MVP Award votes in nine seasons.
His 651 Saves are far and away the most in big league history. Rivera was the 1999 World Series Most Valuable Player as well as the 2003 ALCS MVP.
Rivera also took home the 2013 AL Comeback Player of the Year among numerous other career accolades. As one of that Yankees “Core Four” he helped lead the club to five World Series titles over his 19-year career.
2020 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME BALLOT
This ballot is not full of strong first time candidates. Arguments will be made over the ensuing years, however, for players such as Paul Konerko, Cliff Lee, and Alfonso Soriano.
The one player who will take no debate, and who will make it the first time out, is iconic New York Yankees shortstop and 2003-14 team captain Derek Jeter.
The 1996 AL Rookie of the Year was a 14x All-Star, won five Gold Glove Awards, and five Silver Slugger Awards. He finished among the Top 10 in AL MVP voting eight times. His 3,465 career hits put him at the top of the list for baseball’s most iconic franchise.
Jeter’s first ballot election will make it two straight years for one of those “Core Four” Yankees players. Jeter helped lead the club to the same five World Series titles over his 20-year career as Rivera. He was the Most Valuable Player of the 2000 World Series.
WILL JETER BE THE FIRST 100% HONOREE?
The one question that will hang out there is whether Jeter will become the first player to ever be named on 100% of the Hall of Fame voters ballots. The current record holder is Ken Griffey Jr, who last year was named on 99.32% of the voters ballots.
437 of 440 voters chose to cast a ballot for ‘Junior’, who was every bit as popular a player and as obvious a Hall of Famer as Jeter. So the question you need to ask is, why did three people leave him off their ballots?
The likelihood is that Jeter will approach, maybe even surpass, Griffey’s total, but that he will not be the only player to ever receive that 100% support.
Next: PHILOGRAPHY - PLAYING CAREER OF BOB BOONE
These next three years will see many more players nominated for the Baseball Hall of Fame than are named here. Players who had strong careers, but who stand little chance of enshrinement, include the likes of Hideki Matsui, Roy Oswalt, Bobby Abreu, Chris Carpenter, and Josh Beckett.
The Baseball Hall of Fame is the greatest individual honor that any player can receive. While these players were indeed All-Stars and some were World Series and award winners, the totality of their careers is likely to leave them on the outside looking in at Cooperstown.