Pedro Alvarez: Consolation Prize or Diamond in the Rough?

As free agent power hitters continue to come off the board, someone will presumably have to “settle” for Pedro Alvarez. What can we expect from the slugger in 2017?

With Edwin Encarnacion signed by the Cleveland Indians, the free agent market’s remaining bona fide power hitters are gradually dwindling. Once the likes of Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista and Mike Napoli also shuffle off to their next destinations, it might seem like slim pickings for teams in need of offense.

There should, however, be some intriguing options left to consider, including slugger Pedro Alvarez. After six seasons with the Pirates, the 29-year-old put his bat to work for the Orioles in 2016. Though limited to 109 games, Alvarez did have an opportunity to showcase his talents at the plate last season – the good and the bad.

Since his debut, Alvarez has pretty much been your quintessential all-or-nothing power hitter. A guy who will strike out every three or four at bats like clockwork, but still has a decent shot at popping 30 or more homers over a full campaign. Alvarez has posted an ugly 28.7 percent strikeout rate over his seven-year big league career to go along with a .238/.311/.449 slash line. But over the last five seasons, he has averaged 27 home runs per year, topping out at an NL-leading 36 long balls in 2013. Of course, Alvarez also led the league with 186 strikeouts that season.

Despite limited playing time, Alvarez clubbed 22 round-trippers for a homer-happy O’s squad in 2016. With more games under his belt, he should have had little trouble notching the third 30+ home run campaign of his career, particularly at Camden Yards. In 376 plate appearances, Alvarez managed a .249/.322/.504 line, which marked improvements across the board over the past few seasons. In fact, his .826 OPS was a personal best by a fair margin.

Though Alvarez still struck out 25.8 percent of the time in 2016, that was markedly better than recent seasons, such as in 2012 when he whiffed at a 30.7 percent rate. He’s still going down on strikes quite frequently, but teams will take any progress in that regard. Alvarez has also maintained a solid walk rate around 10 percent the past three years.

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Unfortunately, Alvarez doesn’t help his case at all with his defense… or lack thereof. When in the field, he’s primarily played third base along with some first. He has generated a negative UZR/150 at either position in every season of his career, and a negative DRS (defensive runs saved) each year except for 2013 at third base. Naturally, Alvarez made the vast majority of his appearances this year for the Orioles at designated hitter.

On an AL club where he can DH full-time, or in a situation where he can platoon against right-handers (.801 career OPS vs. righties, .606 OPS vs. lefties), Alvarez could bring some legitimate value. Given his obvious limitations, he’s probably looking a one-year deal similar to the one he got last offseason from Baltimore. A reunion with the Orioles still seems like a possibility, whether they re-sign Mark Trumbo or not. If they don’t retain the league’s reigning home run king, bringing back Alvarez could be even more important as a way to mitigate the loss of offensive firepower.

The Toronto Blue Jays, another AL East club, could be a potential suitor as well, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman. If things don’t work out between the Jays and Jose Bautista, perhaps Alvarez could become an option. But for now it seems like only a matter of time before Toronto and Bautista finally make their way back to each other.

Next: Jays Making Push for Bautista

If healthy, Alvarez is still a decent bet to add 25-30 homers to your lineup, a skill that always has value in Major League Baseball. He won’t be at the top of anyone’s wish list until later in the winter, but in the right circumstances Alvarez could raise a few eyebrows next season.

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