MLB Free Agency: Predicting When Trumbo, Bautista and Napoli Will Sign

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The MLB offseason has been a hectic frenzy so far, yet three big power bats still have not made a decision. Heading into the new year, these three are certain to find a home, and find one fast.

With power hitters making up the majority of MLB free agent talent, it is a surprise to see three of the best bats still available. Sure, there are question marks hovering over all three of these guys, but the fact that it has taken so long is baffling. Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista and Mike Napoli are perhaps three of the four best power hitters available on the free agent market. With Edwin Encarnacion already signed, it brings up the question: when will these guys sign – and with whom?

Of course, the margin of error with these predictions is very large. So for all we know, all three of these players could very well sign contracts as soon as tomorrow. However, with past trends and the current landscape of the free agency pool, a good prediction is much easier to formulate.

Mark Trumbo

Mark Trumbo likely won’t be the first to sign out of the three, but definitely won’t be the last. Trumbo likely was feeling out the market, waiting for other sluggers like Encarnacion to sign in order to evaluate his own worth. Now that Encarnacion has found his home in Cleveland, Trumbo and teams realize the contract it will take to secure the slugger’s talents. While Trumbo may not get as much as Encarnacion, it is plausible to think that Trumbo can get close to that number.

Trumbo has several suitors that he can find himself on next season. The Baltimore Orioles at this point seem like the leading candidates to re-sign Trumbo, as they could use his services more than anyone. Other possible suitors are present, as Trumbo may very well find himself returning to either the Los Angeles Angels or Seattle Mariners. Outside options, such as the Atlanta Braves or New York Yankees, are always prevalent when discussing where Trumbo will end up. Regardless, with several suitors it is hard to see Trumbo on the market much longer.

With that being said, Trumbo will undoubtedly be signed before the end of January. Whatever team ends up landing Trumbo will most definitely want to insert him into the system as soon as possible and avoid any possible hiccups heading into spring training. With the market price already set for Trumbo, he has nothing else to wait for besides the offers from ball clubs. Trumbo shouldn’t wait too long or his value will diminish, so a January signing seems like the most likely outcome.

Jose Bautista

Jose Bautista seemed like one of the most lucrative options heading into this offseason, but now the slugger seems to be fading into the background. Bautista’s insane demands mixed with his increasing age and decline in production have only hurt his case. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Jose Bautista was seeking a contract upwards of five years and $150 million. For someone who is 36 years old, that contract seems like perhaps the most perplexing request that can be made by a player. Obviously Bautista won’t get that kind of money from any MLB club, but that does not mean he will remain unsigned.

Bautista does not have as many suitors as he thinks he does. Possible teams that Bautista could see himself on are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, or remaining in Toronto with the Blue Jays. None of these teams will offer Bautista the money he is requesting; however, Bautista would most likely get more money with a deal outside of Toronto. If Bautista stays in Toronto, they will recognize that he could not find a deal elsewhere, and that will significantly hurt Bautista’s chances of getting any sort of big payday.

Therefore, I think Bautista will take the longest to sign out of the trio. Bautista will likely demand more money than is being offered and will continue to think that he could get that money from other suitors. This will cause Bautista to have a lockout of his own, so we shouldn’t be surprised if he cannot find a deal until late February or early March. Especially with the likes of Napoli and Trumbo likely receiving good money, Bautista would be wiser to sign now – but that likely won’t be the case.

Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli is perhaps the best option for any team out of the trio, if we are being realistic. It’s not that Napoli is far better than his counterparts. Instead, a team can likely lock down his talents for a season or two without overspending. It’s easy to assume that Napoli has regressed significantly because of his age. However, 2017 saw Napoli slug a career high in home runs and runs batted in. He did have a career high in strike outs, but at his likely cost Napoli will be a steal for any AL club looking for a first baseman or designated hitter.

The obvious fit for Mike Napoli would be in Arlington with a return to the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have a significant hole at first base with the loss of Mitch Moreland, and with an always hurt Joey Gallo their designated hitter spot could use some work as well. Other options such as the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays are also possible. However, I’m sure in the end stages of his career Napoli will seek to be a part of a playoff caliber team, not a rebuild. Therefore, seeing Mike Napoli return to Texas for his final swan song at the MLB level seems the most likely.

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As for when they get it done, well, that can happen any day now. I personally believe that Napoli will come to terms with a club before both Trumbo and Bautista. With such a perfect blueprint set up for his return to Texas, it is hard to see the deal being prolonged more than a week or so. If the Rangers are as interested as it seems, this will be a very easy deal for both sides. Expect to hear the news of Mike Napoli signing any day now – and remember you heard it here first.

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