Joey Votto has been the best player on the Reds for years, but you wouldn’t know it if you listened to Reds announcer Marty Brennaman.
When the topic of Joey Votto comes up, Cincinnati Reds announcer Marty Brennaman gets steamed. He doesn’t want to hear about Joey Votto. The mere thought of Joey Votto, with all those useless walks he draws and runners he doesn’t drive in (whether they’re on base or not), makes Marty Brennaman rage. Hearing about Joey Votto turns Marty Brennaman into that mean old man who yells and shakes his fist when the neighborhood kids hit a ball into his yard. Mention Joey Votto’s contract and Marty Brennaman becomes as angry as an old man trying to send back soup at the deli.
Marty Brennaman was recently on the Reds Hot Stove show on 700 WLW in Cincinnati. A man called in and mentioned that some local and national writers say Joey Votto has a bad contract. Votto signed a 10-year, $225 million contract extension before the 2014 season. The caller didn’t think the contract itself was a bad contract, but it was a bad contract for the Reds because they wouldn’t spend enough money to build a good team around Votto. The idea being that Votto is worth the money he makes, but if the team goes cheap on the rest of the roster, they won’t be successful.
Even before he answered the caller, you could feel the rage-o-meter rising on Marty Brennaman’s forehead. The words “Joey Votto” had been spoken. Marty Brennaman started to complain about the $22 million that Votto will make next year as the rage-o-meter approaches the red zone. The caller interrupts, asking, “How many guys are going to make $22 million next year that can’t do what he does? Just for laughs, look up all-time OPS stats…”
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That does it. The Marty Brennaman rage-o-meter goes full tilt. He says, “Time out here now. I’m not going to get into all that crap. I’m going to tell you this: If I were an owner of a baseball team I would say to him if I could trade him, I’d trade him yesterday. And I would say, hell I can lose 94 games without you just as easily as I could lose 94 games with you. I don’t care about the OPS. I don’t care about none of that. This team made a bad deal when they signed Joey Votto to a 10-year contract. And he’s gonna make $22 million and either next year or the following year he’s going to make $25 million. There’s NO sanity on God’s Earth that justifies this being a good contract.” The Marty Brennaman rage-o-meter is at full tilt status. It’s about to blow. Watch it, caller.
Uh oh. The caller starts to say, “Ok, well Bryce Harper is probably going to make $30….” That’s it. The Marty Brennaman rage-o-meter explodes, shooting rage-o-meter juice everywhere. It’s a horrific mess. Brennaman is yelling at this point, “I don’t give a DAMN about Bryce Harper! . . . We’re done with this Scott. We can argue all night long and you’re dead wrong. You’re never going to convince me this contract is a good contract.”
Whooooooaaaa! Easy there, old timer. Marty Brennaman likes to complain about many of the players on the Reds, but he has a special hatred for Joey Votto. It’s like Joey Votto ran over his dog or spit in his coffee. I don’t think Votto would do that. He seems like a nice enough guy, but maybe he did something to make Marty Brennaman hate him. I know Marty Brennaman hates on-base percentage, and Joey Votto has the best on-base percentage in baseball over the last 10 years, but really, is that enough reason to hate him so much, Marty Brennaman?
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Before there was a Joey Votto to hate, there was Adam Dunn. Back in the 2000s, Marty Brennaman set his angry sights on Adam Dunn and anyone who defended Adam Dunn. Eight years ago, Brennaman railed against a Reds fan who defended Dunn. From 2004 to 2008, Adam Dunn hit .249/.382/.533 and averaged 41 homers and 100 RBI per season. He also walked an average of 111 times per season during this five-year stretch and those walks infuriated Marty Brennaman. The man hates on-base percentage with the passion of a thousand fiery suns.
Adam Dunn could hit, but he was terrible in the field, so he wasn’t as valuable as someone with his hitting ability could have been. Votto doesn’t have Dunn’s deficiencies in the field. Dunn had one season in his career in which he was worth five Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per FanGraphs). Votto has had six seasons worth at least 5 WAR.
When it comes to Votto’s contract, Marty Brennaman has no understanding of how much players are being paid these days. You get the idea that Brennaman wishes this was 1976 and the Big Red Machine was still around being all gritty. He doesn’t understand how Joey Votto could be worth $22 million per year, but in the current economic environment in baseball, Votto has been worth much more than that in each of the last two seasons.
The contract extension that Votto signed in 2012 called for 10 years and $225 million beginning with the 2014 season, when he would be 30 years old. At Votto’s player page at FanGraphs, you can find how much Votto has been worth for each season since 2014.
FanGraphs calculates the value of 1 WAR on the free agent market based on free agent contracts that are signed each year. As an example, for 2016 the value of one Win Above Replacement was almost $8 million. For the first year of Votto’s extension, the 2014 season, 1 WAR was worth $7.6 million. Since 2014, Votto has been worth much more than his salary in two out of three seasons (he was injured in 2014 and only played 62 games).
2014—1.0 WAR, worth $7.6M, paid $12M = -4.4M deficit
2015—7.5 WAR, worth $59.8M, paid $14M = +45.8M surplus
2016—5.0 WAR, worth $39.8M, paid $20M = +19.8M surplus
Total—13.5 WAR, worth $107.2M, paid $46m = +61.2M surplus
Despite how angry Marty Brennaman is and how much he hates Joey Votto and how much he thinks Joey Votto isn’t worth the money he’s being paid, Marty Brennaman is wrong. It doesn’t matter how much he yells or pounds his fists or complains about on-base percentage, he’s wrong.
Consider a recent free agent signing—Edwin Encarnacion, who just signed with Cleveland for $65 million over the next three years. Encarnacion will be 34 years old in 2017, one year older than Votto. He has been worth 8.4 WAR over the last two years. Votto has been worth 12.5 WAR. Encarnacion will make $65 million over the next three years. Votto will make $72 million. Votto’s contract is not out of line with what teams are paying good players these days. Also, Votto is more likely to provide surplus value to the Reds than Encarnacion is to Cleveland.
Looking back, Votto has been worth much more to the Reds than he’s been paid so far and the team is likely to come out ahead on his current 10-yeardeal in the long run. Votto could be a league average player over the next seven years and the Reds will come out about even. More likely, the 33-year-old Votto will be above average for a few years, during which time he’ll continue to provide surplus value. At some point he’ll be league average and then below average, as he ages into his late 30s. When he’s making $25 million per year in his late-30s, he will be costing the Reds money for those years, but they’ll already be way ahead overall. This is how long term contracts work.
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Just because the team hasn’t been any good around Votto doesn’t make Votto worth less money. He has the seventh-most WAR in baseball over the last two years and is projected to be worth around 4 WAR next year. He’s done what he’s been paid to do and more. No amount of rage from Marty Brennaman is going to make that untrue.