Pittsburgh Pirates: To Rebuild or Not to Rebuild
The Pittsburgh Pirates won 98 games in 2015, but they are now stuck in an odd place. Should they rebuild or go for it?
A hotly debated topic is whether teams in the same division as a powerhouse should elect to rebuild over going for it if given the opportunity. On one hand, it makes sense that less games will be won and playoff chances decrease with better opponents within the division. On the other hand, assuming that a team within the division will be better than your team in any given year isn’t a great outlook to have about a season. With the Wild Card being easier to grab and yet more fluky to give meaning to, teams caught in the middle have even tougher decisions to make. The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of those teams in the middle.
The Chicago Cubs won the World Series in 2016, as I’m sure you know. They also won over a 100 games in the regular season while the Cardinals and Pirates both missed out on the postseason. This coming just one year after all three teams were in the playoffs, the Cubs having the worst record of the three. It’s certainly no shocker that the Cubs were very good this past season. They have an incredible amount of young talent that was helped along by a great defense and pitching staff. The bigger question is what happened to the Pirates that they fell off so badly and is it fixable this offseason?
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First off, the Pirates were heavily reliant on two players during their successful 2015 season: Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole. Both were among the best at their respective positions. In 2016, that was not the case at all. Both Cole and McCutchen had very poor seasons, which put far too much pressure on the supporting cast.
Cole went from 5.4 fWAR in 2015 to just 2.5 in 2016. Some of that was due to injuries (he pitched almost 100 fewer innings), but he simply wasn’t there to provide the spark they needed. It meant that they were reliant on resurgent prospect Jameson Taillon, Francisco Liriano who they traded away midseason, and the likes of Chad Kuhl and Jon Niese. Not a single Pirates pitcher reached the minimum innings required to be a “qualified” pitcher.
As for McCutchen, he followed his 5.8 fWAR, 146 wRC+, and 5th place MVP 2015 season with a 0.7 fWAR and 106 wRC+ season. That’s a ginormous drop in WAR, which is mostly due to defensive metrics absolutely ripping McCutchen to shreds this past season. That may or may not be fair because, as we know, defensive metrics are the least accurate of baseball statistics. Regardless, there was a large drop off in offensive production as well. He went from well above average at 146 wRC+ to barely above average 106.
With that said, everything we know about McCutchen and Cole tells us that the down year will not last for either star of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Bounce-back seasons from both of those players will surely provide more wins in the coming season. They will also likely see improvements and greater value from both Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow in the rotation.
The question still remains: should they rebuild or not? Their farm system isn’t overflowing with talent, but it’s not completely barren either. And yet, it doesn’t appear as though they will be able to construct a roster as flashy on paper as their division rival Cubs.
If the Pittsburgh Pirates were going to rebuild, that would likely include trading Andrew McCutchen away. From the moment rumors around such a trade arose, I was confused. Selling low and buying high isn’t as prominent in the current game of smart front offices, but this would be a horrible case of selling low for the Pirates. Sure, teams know that McCutchen is a former MVP, who has put up great seasons in every year except 2016. But the fact remains that teams aren’t going to give up quite the same amount of talent for a 0.7 fWAR player as they would for an 8.4 fWAR MVP player.
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No other Pirates players are good candidates to be traded as part of a rebuild. The Pirates would receive a few very good prospects, lose some more games, and maybe get a few good draft picks. It could serve as a useful little retool, allowing the pitching prospects to develop while future positional stars Austin Meadows and Josh Bell to receive some playing time. The one remaining problem would be that their true ace, Gerrit Cole, is on the final year of his contract. He may not be willing to stick around for a rebuild, even a quick one.
That leads us to consider the possibilities of really going for it in this season. The Cubs are still very, very good, but they’re not quite the juggernaut they were last season. The Cardinals have improved, but don’t appear to be better than they were in 2015. There’s no reason to believe that the Pirates cannot return to being just as competitive within the division as they were in 2015. They would, however, have to make some moves to get there.
One move would be adding a cost-controlled starter. Jose Quintana and Chris Archer are the two names that have been circulated throughout the offseason. Either one would make sense, but they have been rumored to be more closely in on Quintana than Archer. Quintana would immediately make the Pirates rotation much better. It would also protect them from their season being ended by a single pitching injury. Depth can be incredibly valuable, and Quintana would add very good depth at the top of the rotation.
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Add on that McCutchen looks to be better, Ivan Nova is a fine addition, and they have a good set of position players elsewhere and the Pirates are in good shape to compete for a Wild Card spot. Essentially, as the Pirates make this decision they will have to weigh the pros and cons of simply winning a chance to play in the Wild Card game. Arguments could be made for either side. If the Pirates rebuild, they could build a roster that is among the best in the league. If they opt to continue to pursue winning in the current window, they could reach the postseason and perhaps make some magic happen.