MLB Top 125 Prospects: The Top 25

After reviewing each system’s top 10 prospects, who are the top 125 MLB prospects?

An Introduction

Our minor league top 125 prospect list is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call To The Pen.

He has poured over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. He presented his team top 10 lists starting in November and finishing in December of 2016. Those lists and this top 125 list are based out of those conversations and his own personal scouting.

Each slide will feature five players with a brief write up, a link to their position on the team top 10, where Ben put out a more detailed write up on each player, unless that player did not make the team top 10, at which point, Ben will have a more detailed write up.

In general, the exact ranking is less intensive at the lower levels of the rankings. At the top levels, the top 50, the order of each player was considered fairly carefully, but in general, after about 75, the players are more in tiers and ranked within their tier, so don’t worry too much if your favorite guy is 101 versus 99, but 101 versus 50 could lead to some discussion, and feel free to comment with any questions you may have in the comments section below as we go along!

Let’s get started with today’s group of 25, the top 25 overall!!

Next: #21-25

25. Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, Brewers #1

Brinson has always been known for his five plus-level tools, and he’s been making significant progress to turn those raw tools into production on the field through some adjustments to his swing to help reduce his strikeouts and make better contact with the ball. Brinson was part of a very high-octane, high-strikeout offense in the Rangers system early in his career that featured multiple top prospects, but he’s shown to be the guy who has come the farthest as far as polishing his tools into on-field production. Brinson has also shown the most defensively along the way, which has allowed him to provide value while working on his bat. His defense in center is excellent as he’s worked to improve his routes to balls to compliment his plus speed and plus arm. He’ll likely open in AAA in 2017, and he could still use to work a walk more frequently as his aggressive approach at the plate has cut down on overall strikeouts but still does not lead to many walks, but he could jump quickly with big production for the Colorado Springs club.

24. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres, Padres #2

Margot was part of the big haul the Padres got from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel deal, and he’s shown to be even closer to ready than many thought he was coming into the deal. He has always been known for his elite defense in center field, and that was certainly present in 2016. He also showed his plus contact ability and double-plus speed offensively, using his speed well to get extra bases. Margot also has tremendous strike zone judgement, though he doesn’t walk much, as he only strikes out roughly 11% of the time. In a previous era, he’d be a perfect #2 hitter with elite speed, solid gap power that can be even more and excellent contact skills that won’t strike out a ton. Even in the modern era, that’s a bat you want early in your lineup.

23. Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers #3

While it is clear for me where the #1 Dodger prospect ranks, #2 and #3 are so close that I actually switched them out at times right up to publishing the list, and therefore, you see only a couple spots difference on this list as well. De Leon is the “low” man here, but still within the top 25 as a former 24th round draft pick that took a measly $35K signing bonus to one of the most elite pitching prospects in the game. He has fought through some injury along the way, but he’s developed his pitch mix to really be three elite pitches, with a change that gets plenty of swing and miss and a slider with an exceptional break that seems to move two distinct times, allowing it to be an excellent pitch to miss barrels and get weak contact. Add in a fastball with a ton of movement, and you have a pitch mix that should allow De Leon to play up to a front line pitcher very quickly and quite possibly push for the Dodger rotation this season.

22. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox, White Sox #4

I mentioned this in the team write up about him, but when a teammate that is charting a game sees 105 MPH cross the gun and doesn’t think “the gun might be off here” or “that doesn’t seem right”, that tells you the type of velocity that Kopech’s teammates are simply used to seeing come from him. While the validity of 105 can be questioned, Kopech has been known to hit 103 and certainly can top triple digits, which is why many know his name. However, perhaps more should be known. Kopech also has a slider that flashes plus, and his change is very consistent, even if it is more of an average pitch in true effectiveness, it’s one he can control and keep in the zone. Kopech has struggled with his delivery due to the tremendous veracity that he uses in his delivery to generate the velocity he does. That can throw him off-balance and cause his command to struggle, but he has done well working with coaching on simplifying his delivery without sacrificing velocity, and even if he does end up having to move to the bullpen, this is a guy who could throw a legit 105 in short spurts, so to rank him at this level is quite justified.

21. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers #2

Bellinger is one of the more difficult guys for me to rank. His father Clay Bellinger was a major league player, and he has the size that you’d love, but I am just a touch concerned that the swing changes he made to go from a line drive, high average, James Loney type of hitter to the guy who knocked out 30 home runs in 2015 alone (and followed up with 23 this year) will be changes that will be exploited at the major league level by elite pitchers. He struggles with keeping a consistent bat path, and that has led to some of his issues with consistent contact. While he still maintains tremendous contact ability, such that he has kept his strikeout rate very reasonable, he does get into funks where he’s off in his path and doesn’t get the best part of the bat on the ball, leading to easy outs via pop ups. That is one of the by-products that the recent trend in swings that sell out for loft and driving the ball, but most of the guys who make that shift didn’t have the ability to hit .300 before they made the change, which is why it’s sometimes tough to see with Bellinger. Regardless, the power in the swing is real, and if he can work to keep getting to the barrel well, he’ll be able to be a force soon in the big leagues. While he has the athleticism and arm to play int he outfield, he is an elite defender at first, and that can have its own value, especially with Adrian Gonzalez a free agent after 2018.

Next: #16-20

15. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox, Red Sox #2

Devers really had a season that showed exactly the type of growth he has had as a player both on the field and off. He was only 19 for the entire season and at the high-A level, and he started the year hitting around .200 even as of May 1st. To finish the season hitting over .280 tells you just how strong his May 1 – end of the season truly was. He also began to show much more production of his raw power in games rather than seeing more batting cage power and struggles to tap into it during games. Devers has tremendous contact skills, which is why it was so striking to see him struggle early in the season. He does have tremendous athleticism and I got a few plus grades on his run tool along with plenty of above-average grades, so he can handle himself on the bases. Where he made the biggest strides was on defense. Once considered a fringy defensive third baseman, I’m now getting reports on Devers that consider him an overall plus defender at third base, including one person who considered him the “best defensive third baseman that will make a top prospect list”, which is fairly high praise considering some of the elite hot corner defenders we’ve discussed already on this list. He’ll play next season at AA at 20 years old, which gives him a huge leg up on eventually taking over the revolving door that has been the hot corner in Boston lately.

14. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Pirates #1

Glasnow has been on the prospect radar for some time, but he took a big step forward in 2016. At 6’8, one of the major issues he’s always had is keeping his mechanics in line, and therefore, his control in line. While he still walked plenty of people in 2016, it wasn’t due to being erratic as in past seasons. Glasnow uses his height to get tremendous plane on his pitches already, but on top of that his upper-90s fastball and plus curve both get excellent late movement low in the zone that can often carry them out of the strike zone. While that often leads to swings and misses on the pitch, when a hitter does lay off, it is a legit ball many times, and there’s not a ton you can do about that for Glasnow. His biggest issue in his mechanics has always been using his tremendous height to take a significant stride toward the plate, making all of his pitches play up even more as he’s tremendously close to the plate when he releases them, but it also means that he can get off balance in his delivery more easily, and it can affect the control of his fastball and change quite a bit. I really would love to see a split finger in Glasnow’s arsenal if his fingers would be able to handle it because at his height, the pitch could be absolutely devastating as a fourth pitch.

13. Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves, Braves #2

Albies will turn 20 over this weekend, and he’s already reached AAA, made a position, moved back to AA to play alongside his future middle infield mate, and along the way won a batting title and showed power that many said was not present in his swing. There were plenty of legit reasons to consider Albies a top 10 overall prospect and the #1 prospect in the Braves system before a fractured elbow ended his season (and the real chances that his AA Mississippi team had in the championship series). The unsure nature of the recovery from his elbow injury leads to just enough future question that he’s here on the list – not dropped tremendously, but enough to hedge on that elbow not healing right all season and setting his development back a year. Albies invoked the one comparison that I have not heard a true scout use as a comparison since he exploded onto the scene, and that’s Jose Altuve. Albies, like Altuve, generates a ton of force on the ball with his swing from a smaller stature, allowing him to pound the gaps and pick up a handful or two of home runs, even in tough pitching environments like he was in with his home park in Mississippi. Albies has legit plus-plus speed, and he does very well controlling the strike zone. While he has a plus arm on defense, he is a bit erratic, and that is what led to the decision to shift him to second base and continue Swanson at short in their development. Albies will be handled with care on his elbow as the Braves have long-term plans for him and they want to ensure he’s able to be healthy for them.

12. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox, White Sox #3

The Cespedes Family Barbeque Podcast guys may not like me for having their boy here, but Giolito has shown some kinks in the armor in 2016. There is some hope that getting with a different pitching instructor could help him get to the point of elite again, but for now, he’s dropped a touch to me. Of course, he’s still #12, so that’s all relative, of course. Giolito has always been known for getting tremendous plane on his high-90s fastball from his 6’6 frame, but that fastball flattened out plenty in my viewings of him in the minors this year, and he seemed to get torched in the majors on his fastball as well. His fastball is a four-seamer as well, so he doesn’t get a ton of sink to the pitch, so when it flattens out, it’s like putting a high-velocity ball on a platter for hitters because a pitch at that velocity made even decent contact is going to jump. The Nationals attempted to help Giolito by making a few mechanical tweaks that I noticed after he had been up for his first big league call up, but that seemed to only make matters worse. Hopefully, getting out of Washington and to Chicago will allow him to return to that elite pitcher status as he would have been the top-ranked remaining player on the list from last season’s list for me, but he dropped overall.

11. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays, Blue Jays #1

It seems fitting in the season that his father Vladimir Guerrero would have his first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot (and is doing quite well, I may add), Junior has his first professional exposure and blows beyond any possible expectations that the Blue Jays could have had for him. He was bumped past the Dominican Summer League straight to low-level rookie ball, and he hit with such force that he was quickly pushed to the Appalachian League, where he found himself pitted against 2015 high school draft picks, 2016 college draft picks, and 2013-2014 international signees. As one of the youngest players in the league, he was certainly one of the ones who stood out the most with his play on the field as well. He certainly looked more mature than his 17 years as he tallied a 33/35 BB/K ratio on the year. The bat will be the big thing that carries Vlad, Jr. going forward as he has double plus raw power and already shows plus game power. He has a bit of a load to his swing, but once he’s in the zone, the bat explodes through the zone, generating a ton of force on the ball. He moved from the outfield to third base, and while the transition was not perfect, it went much better than many had expected. While he may end up best suited at DH long-term, Toronto did not sign him for any defensive value. As long as his big power and surprising athleticism (15 stolen bases in spite of a fringe-average run tool) can push him forward, he’ll have a future spot in the Toronto lineup.

Next: #6-10

10. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox, White Sox #2

As his teammate Giolito seemed to struggle with getting himself righted throughout 2016, Lopez seemed to continue to find new and more impressive ways to jump ahead as a pitcher. Lopez is a guy who was known coming into the season as a big velocity guy with a good curve that definitely had peoples’ attention. He had struggled with his command and his change, however, and that really led many to believe that he would eventually be a reliever. Instead, he found a different movement within his delivery that allowed him to be much more consistent in 2016, allowing his change to play up, and he also found ways to add wrinkles to both his fastball and curve, allowing him to really leave hitters guessing what would be coming next, even if they guessed the right pitch! He’s not built huge, but like Pedro Martinez, he’s built with very long limbs and uses them to extend toward the plate, allowing his frequently-triple digit stuff to appear with even more velocity.

9. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets, Mets #1

Rosario was a guy who had the tag of “elite defender, light bat” coming into 2016 spring training, when I started to read all sorts of reports of the way the ball was absolutely leaping off of his bat into the corners and gaps. That caused me to gobble him up in a number of dynasty leagues I’m in that he was not owned in yet. He carried that spring performance forward, and he took what had been a light-hitting profile into 42 extra base hits between high-A and AA in 2016. He also was able to maintain his excellent defensive work while taking these steps forward with his bat. He has tremendous feel for shortstop, and while he may have just above-average range, he does have a legit plus-plus arm that allows him to make ridiculous plays that most shortstops have to pocket because their arm isn’t strong enough to accomplish the out. Rosario is a plus runner, but his running is more seen in his base running than his base stealing, and it was evident in his ability to load up triples this season, tallying 13 on the year. Rosario is in a perfect system to push forward as the Mets really do not have anyone ahead of him who will keep him away from taking over the shortstop job, so if he continues his push forward, he could be looking at opening 2018 as the Mets shortstop.

8. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers #1

While the Dodgers signed a number of big targets in their big spending of the 2015 international free agent class, Alvarez was absolutely the crown of that class. He was signed for roughly $16M out of Cuba, and for what bonuses were at the time, that could like like a steal if he keeps up what he did in his first season in 2016. Alvarez topped triple digits multiple times on the year and sits with an easy mid-90s fastball on the mound that he pairs with a slider that he can use with two grips to get different looks to hitters. Add in a change that I truly saw as a plus pitch in the games I saw of his, when I’d been led to believe by preseason reports that the pitch was an average pitch at best, and you have a three-pitch plus combination for a 20 year-old making his professional debut and really looking like he was too advanced for full season ball. The Dodgers were handling his innings carefully after the layoff and not really ever taxing his arm heavily, so it wouldn’t surprise if he barely clears the 100 IP mark in 2017, so set your DVRs for high-A or AA, wherever he lands, because his starts should be prime-time viewing material.

7. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals, Nationals #1

When Giolito was traded, I had a number of people asked if that changed my #1 for the Nationals, and I said that it did not, and Robles is the big reason why. He was already established as the guy I would have #1 in the system from the second I started working on lists this year. Signed in 2013, Robles made his state side debut in 2015 and really got noticed as he beat up on the GCL and NYPL. The Nationals opened him in full-season ball at just 18 years old, one of the youngest position players in the South Atlantic League, and after just 64 games there, he was bumped up to high-A. Robles does have a solid physical build to him, but he probably gets more credit for being a 5-tool type than really he should. His swing does very well to be able to make excellent contact, he has plus-plus speed, and plus defensive ability with a plus arm. His power, however is average presently, and though he’s flashed some raw power in the cage, it’s with a different swing than he uses in game, so it’s likely he won’t ever truly reach a high level of power in his game. However, with his current power projection of 10-15 home runs along with his elite speed giving him the ability to steal 35-50 bases in a year, you could be looking at a guy who gives you early-career Johnny Damon production, though with a plus arm. He does have a bit of a strikeout bugaboo, but much of that is due to his aggressive approach with his contact ability, so he certainly could develop more patience as he works his way up the ladder toward D.C.

6. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs, Cubs #1

The Cubs dipped heavily into the international free agent pool in 2013, and the next two players on the list were their two jewels of that class, though only one remains in the system, and that’s Jimenez. Eloy was known more due to his bonus before this season as most hadn’t really seen a lot of production to think he could be a breakout candidate. However, break out he certainly did. While Moncada may have won the MVP of the game, no one received more talk from the Futures Game at All Star Game week than did Jimenez. He has an incredible build that is cut to create power, and while he pounded the gaps so far with 40 doubles and 14 home runs, he projects to hit for much more power over the fence as he advances. He’s got a prototype right field plus power, plus arm profile, and he showed more ability defensively this season in tracking balls than he had before, leading some to grade him as a fringe-plus defensive outfielder overall. He will be in high-A as a 20 year old in 2017, and it wouldn’t surprise to see him jump a few levels at some point soon as he gets his strike zone judgement ironed out to compliment everything else that he’s got working so well for him right now.

Next: #Top 5

5. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees, Yankees #1

The other big member of that 2013 Cubs IFA class now calls the Yankee organization his home as Torres was the key piece in the trade for Aroldis Chapman this summer as the Cubs made their run to a World Series title. The Yankees certainly knew what they were getting in Torres, a player who had turned the corner from tools and projection to production on the field at just 19 this season. He then went down to the Arizona Fall League as a teenager and won the MVP award! Torres did add to his build quite a bit this year, but he did it while training well, maintaining his speed, flexibility, and athleticism, possibly making him an even better shortstop in the process as he “bulked up” rather than forcing him off the position as happens with many guys as they fill out. Torres showed plenty of power in his game skills, totaling 45 extra base hits on the season, and there should be more than his 11 home runs to come. Torres was able to add this in game contact while also cutting down on his strikeout rate and keeping his production in steals and excellent base running in tact as well. He’ll certainly hold as a shortstop, though he may not be an elite one, outside of his arm. He’ll be in AA in 2017 at age 20, and it’d not surprise anyone if he’s pushing Didi Gregorius off the position in the Bronx sooner rather than later.

4. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves, Braves #1

As Dansby raced around the bases against the Nationals, no one could have predicted that arguably the best baseball photo of the year was going to come from his dive toward home plate for that inside-the-park home run. If you click on the link to my write up from the Braves top 10, you’ll see the picture in question, and it’s an absolute gem. Swanson is the proverbial quarterback on the field, and he even did that once he got to Atlanta, showing maturity beyond his years on the field. He may not have the biggest arm at short or the flashiest range, but he has incredible instincts, and it seems like he makes every single play he gets to. At the plate, Swanson isn’t a guy who will probably hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but he uses his baseball smarts to a high level there as well. He does have an excellent contact tool that he pairs with excellent zone recognition at the plate to really be a solid player to plug in at the top of the lineup. While there isn’t one tool that’s at a plus-plus level, the makeup is so good that everything seems to play up, much like the guy he most often gets general comparisons to, Derek Jeter, for the way they both carry themselves on the field.

3. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Cardinals #1

Reyes became well-known in possibly a more notorious way than he’d like due to his moving from a stateside school to a Latin country and establishing residency in order to get a larger signing bonus, a practice followed soon thereafter by multiple other players. He then received more notorious attention this spring when he missed the open of the season due to a “drug of abuse” in the minor leagues. Reyes simply came out and exhibited big time stuff once he did get on the mound, flashing his fastball that can touch triple digits and power curve in a relief role in the big leagues after having an up and down season in the PCL in the minors. Reyes has a solid change and does use it well, but he has had some issues with consistency in his delivery, and his change seems to be most affected when he is off in his mechanics, missing his spots badly with the pitch. Reyes will get every opportunity to make the Cardinals rotation out of spring training, and he absolutely has elite stuff that profiles as a true ace, but he also could be an incredible weapon out of the bullpen if for some reason he doesn’t make it as a starter.

2. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox, Red Sox #1

Apparently, referencing Benintendi’s height in my team write up led to some pretty upset discussion, so I’ll just say that he gets the absolute most out of his frame as far as production is concerned. While he’s not a guy who will probably ever lead the league in home runs or stolen bases (or likely doubles or triples or etc.), he’s a guy that should simply contribute across the board offensively for Boston. He has an excellent stroke at the plate with great feel within the zone. He does have very good instincts on the bases and fringe-plus speed, so stealing 20 bases is not out of the question in a season, but his speed is more evident in straight-line speed than in quick step speed, which shows well in the outfield. He has the skills and instincts to play center field if not for an elite center fielder already present in Boston. Playing in left field should allow Benintendi to really flash the leather, and as the video shows, he did just that in his short audition in Boston in 2016. There are guys who may put up more pretty numbers, but in the end, I think it’s quite possible that we look back at this list and Benintendi has the best elite-level career of anyone on the list.

1. Yoan Moncada, IF, Chicago White Sox, White Sox #1

When discussing the #1 prospect with a friend who has recently taken a scouting job within a major league organization, he and I were discussing the different options for the #1 guy, and when mentioning Moncada, his initial response was, “It feels like I’m trying to find ways NOT to make him #1 rather ways to argue FOR him to be #1, which should tell me something.”

It told me what I really needed to know as I was struggling between, at the time, two teammates for my number one overall guy in Moncada and Benintendi, but I found myself doing the same thing in building Benintendi’s case for #1 while having to tear down Moncada in order for him NOT to be #1.

Moncada’s elite skills were on display this summer as he opened in high-A in his second full season since signing with the Red Sox and hit so well that he was promoted to AA. If you look at the combined line, it simply is astounding – a .918 OPS, 15 HR, 45 stolen bases, 52 total extra base hits.

While I’m not sure that third base is the best fit for Moncada, he does certainly have the arm for it, but I do think he’ll end up back up the middle, where he likely belongs long term, with Chicago. Whether that’s at second base or eventually center field is to be determined, but he has the athleticism to handle either.

While he could likely stick in Chicago out of spring training, there’s no real reason to push him either as he only had a half-season of upper minors work, so it’d not surprise me to see the White Sox send him to AAA to open the season, and he will be a fun one to watch for the Pale Hose when he arrives.

Next: Top 125 Prospects: 26-50

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