MLB Top 125 Prospects: The Top 25

After reviewing each system’s top 10 prospects, who are the top 125 MLB prospects?

An Introduction

Our minor league top 125 prospect list is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call To The Pen.

He has poured over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. He presented his team top 10 lists starting in November and finishing in December of 2016. Those lists and this top 125 list are based out of those conversations and his own personal scouting.

Each slide will feature five players with a brief write up, a link to their position on the team top 10, where Ben put out a more detailed write up on each player, unless that player did not make the team top 10, at which point, Ben will have a more detailed write up.

In general, the exact ranking is less intensive at the lower levels of the rankings. At the top levels, the top 50, the order of each player was considered fairly carefully, but in general, after about 75, the players are more in tiers and ranked within their tier, so don’t worry too much if your favorite guy is 101 versus 99, but 101 versus 50 could lead to some discussion, and feel free to comment with any questions you may have in the comments section below as we go along!

Let’s get started with today’s group of 25, the top 25 overall!!

Next: #21-25

25. Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, Brewers #1

Brinson has always been known for his five plus-level tools, and he’s been making significant progress to turn those raw tools into production on the field through some adjustments to his swing to help reduce his strikeouts and make better contact with the ball. Brinson was part of a very high-octane, high-strikeout offense in the Rangers system early in his career that featured multiple top prospects, but he’s shown to be the guy who has come the farthest as far as polishing his tools into on-field production. Brinson has also shown the most defensively along the way, which has allowed him to provide value while working on his bat. His defense in center is excellent as he’s worked to improve his routes to balls to compliment his plus speed and plus arm. He’ll likely open in AAA in 2017, and he could still use to work a walk more frequently as his aggressive approach at the plate has cut down on overall strikeouts but still does not lead to many walks, but he could jump quickly with big production for the Colorado Springs club.

24. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres, Padres #2

Margot was part of the big haul the Padres got from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel deal, and he’s shown to be even closer to ready than many thought he was coming into the deal. He has always been known for his elite defense in center field, and that was certainly present in 2016. He also showed his plus contact ability and double-plus speed offensively, using his speed well to get extra bases. Margot also has tremendous strike zone judgement, though he doesn’t walk much, as he only strikes out roughly 11% of the time. In a previous era, he’d be a perfect #2 hitter with elite speed, solid gap power that can be even more and excellent contact skills that won’t strike out a ton. Even in the modern era, that’s a bat you want early in your lineup.

23. Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers #3

While it is clear for me where the #1 Dodger prospect ranks, #2 and #3 are so close that I actually switched them out at times right up to publishing the list, and therefore, you see only a couple spots difference on this list as well. De Leon is the “low” man here, but still within the top 25 as a former 24th round draft pick that took a measly $35K signing bonus to one of the most elite pitching prospects in the game. He has fought through some injury along the way, but he’s developed his pitch mix to really be three elite pitches, with a change that gets plenty of swing and miss and a slider with an exceptional break that seems to move two distinct times, allowing it to be an excellent pitch to miss barrels and get weak contact. Add in a fastball with a ton of movement, and you have a pitch mix that should allow De Leon to play up to a front line pitcher very quickly and quite possibly push for the Dodger rotation this season.

22. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox, White Sox #4

I mentioned this in the team write up about him, but when a teammate that is charting a game sees 105 MPH cross the gun and doesn’t think “the gun might be off here” or “that doesn’t seem right”, that tells you the type of velocity that Kopech’s teammates are simply used to seeing come from him. While the validity of 105 can be questioned, Kopech has been known to hit 103 and certainly can top triple digits, which is why many know his name. However, perhaps more should be known. Kopech also has a slider that flashes plus, and his change is very consistent, even if it is more of an average pitch in true effectiveness, it’s one he can control and keep in the zone. Kopech has struggled with his delivery due to the tremendous veracity that he uses in his delivery to generate the velocity he does. That can throw him off-balance and cause his command to struggle, but he has done well working with coaching on simplifying his delivery without sacrificing velocity, and even if he does end up having to move to the bullpen, this is a guy who could throw a legit 105 in short spurts, so to rank him at this level is quite justified.

21. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers #2

Bellinger is one of the more difficult guys for me to rank. His father Clay Bellinger was a major league player, and he has the size that you’d love, but I am just a touch concerned that the swing changes he made to go from a line drive, high average, James Loney type of hitter to the guy who knocked out 30 home runs in 2015 alone (and followed up with 23 this year) will be changes that will be exploited at the major league level by elite pitchers. He struggles with keeping a consistent bat path, and that has led to some of his issues with consistent contact. While he still maintains tremendous contact ability, such that he has kept his strikeout rate very reasonable, he does get into funks where he’s off in his path and doesn’t get the best part of the bat on the ball, leading to easy outs via pop ups. That is one of the by-products that the recent trend in swings that sell out for loft and driving the ball, but most of the guys who make that shift didn’t have the ability to hit .300 before they made the change, which is why it’s sometimes tough to see with Bellinger. Regardless, the power in the swing is real, and if he can work to keep getting to the barrel well, he’ll be able to be a force soon in the big leagues. While he has the athleticism and arm to play int he outfield, he is an elite defender at first, and that can have its own value, especially with Adrian Gonzalez a free agent after 2018.

Next: #16-20

20. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies, Rockies #1

People seem to forget that among all those college shortstops that have done so well from the 2015 draft (Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Kevin Newman, etc.), there was a high school SS that was highly regarded as the best overall talent in the draft. Rodgers jumped up to low-A as a 19 year old for most of the 2016 season, and he really never looked out of place, posting an .822 OPS with 19 home runs on the season in his first full season as a professional. Rodgers may not have the perfect size of a future slugger, but he has tremendous body kinetics, which allows him to maximize the effect of each swing. While he likely won’t be a guy who wins Gold Gloves at short, he’s worked hard to be able to stay at the position as well, and even if he has to move, he should work very well up the middle at second base with elite offensive skills for that position as well.

19. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros, Astros #1

While Tucker’s brother, Preston Tucker, is also an outfielder in the Astros organization, it’s fairly easy to see who the better athlete of the two brothers. Kyle was the #5 overall selection in the 2015 draft, and while some of that was for money savings, Tucker was considered a legit top-10 talent. He has a very impressive balance of power and speed to his game, even though his power hasn’t exactly translated to over-the-fence power quite yet. He still hit 25 doubles, 7 triples, and 9 home runs across two full-season levels as a 19 year old in 2016, which is quite impressive. His best tool is his contact ability that allows him to really keep the bat in the hitting zone for a crazy amount of time and use his plus speed to create singles when he doesn’t strike the ball perfectly. Tucker’s not got an elite arm, but it’s certainly above-average and even fringe-plus overall defense, even though he’s likely to be a corner outfielder more than a center field type. He will be likely opening 2017 as a 20 year old in AA, which is incredible progression to consider, and if he keeps pushing forward like this, Tucker could end up in the Houston outfield sooner rather than later.

18. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays, Rays #1

When the Rays traded away their big ace arm in David Price, they definitely wanted to get a major league quality arm back, and they got that in Drew Smyly, but they also wanted an elite talent, and Adames was that. He’s been a guy who has flummoxed many prospect folks for quite some time as he is certainly a unique prospect. He has a frame and body type that is not ideal for short, yet he seems to get even better at the position every season. Offensively, his swing isn’t the path that you’d like to see, but each season he seems to get a little better in generating contact and power both. He’s always shown solid pitch recognition, though he did see an uptick in his strikeouts at AA in 2016. All in all, Adames has really defied the odds many would have given him to become one of the elite prospects at the elite position in the game. If he ever is moved off of shortstop, he has enough arm and high-level instincts to be a very, very good third baseman, and his power has developed such that he’d be no slouch offensively in a corner infield.

17. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates, Pirates #2

While the discussion was often heated over which Georgia prep high school outfielder was the better choice in 2013, Meadows took a step forward while fellow Georgian Clint Frazier seemingly took one backward in 2016, really giving them their first ever separation as prospects since being drafted. Meadows has established himself as a future outfield piece for the Pirates such that the Pirates reportedly backed away from talks regarding ace pitchers such as Chris Archer, Chris Sale, and Jose Quintana when Meadows was insisted as part of any deal for a big arm. Meadows has struggled with health along the way, but when he’s been on the field, he’s always been an elite player on the field, and that was no different in 2016. Meadows has a sub-par arm in the outfield, but otherwise is elite on every other tool in the tool box. He’s likely going to be a CF/LF profile, due to his arm not playing in right. With Andrew McCutchen being discussed on the trade block this offseason, Meadows could end up patrolling the Pittsburgh outfield in 2017!

16. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres, Padres #1

If the Padres take the steps to winning anything of significance in the next decade or so, they should be sure to cut Dave Dombrowski in on the celebration, as he certainly aided in the expedience of the Padres rebuild with a few deals after taking over in Boston. Espinoza came over in a summer deal, and while there will always be some question about his size and being a front line starter due to that, there’s really never been a question about his stuff. Espinoza was only 18 in 2016, yet he pitched in full season ball and acquitted himself quite well, outside of some poor performances centered around a couple of injury dings. His elite fastball/curve combination could lead to Espinoza becoming a premium reliever if he cannot make it as a starter, but there’s little reason to believe that he won’t be able to as his change could be his best pitch overall, giving him three legit plus pitches. He’s still a bit off, but Espinoza certainly has elite stuff on the mound.

Next: #11-15

15. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox, Red Sox #2

Devers really had a season that showed exactly the type of growth he has had as a player both on the field and off. He was only 19 for the entire season and at the high-A level, and he started the year hitting around .200 even as of May 1st. To finish the season hitting over .280 tells you just how strong his May 1 – end of the season truly was. He also began to show much more production of his raw power in games rather than seeing more batting cage power and struggles to tap into it during games. Devers has tremendous contact skills, which is why it was so striking to see him struggle early in the season. He does have tremendous athleticism and I got a few plus grades on his run tool along with plenty of above-average grades, so he can handle himself on the bases. Where he made the biggest strides was on defense. Once considered a fringy defensive third baseman, I’m now getting reports on Devers that consider him an overall plus defender at third base, including one person who considered him the “best defensive third baseman that will make a top prospect list”, which is fairly high praise considering some of the elite hot corner defenders we’ve discussed already on this list. He’ll play next season at AA at 20 years old, which gives him a huge leg up on eventually taking over the revolving door that has been the hot corner in Boston lately.

14. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Pirates #1

Glasnow has been on the prospect radar for some time, but he took a big step forward in 2016. At 6’8, one of the major issues he’s always had is keeping his mechanics in line, and therefore, his control in line. While he still walked plenty of people in 2016, it wasn’t due to being erratic as in past seasons. Glasnow uses his height to get tremendous plane on his pitches already, but on top of that his upper-90s fastball and plus curve both get excellent late movement low in the zone that can often carry them out of the strike zone. While that often leads to swings and misses on the pitch, when a hitter does lay off, it is a legit ball many times, and there’s not a ton you can do about that for Glasnow. His biggest issue in his mechanics has always been using his tremendous height to take a significant stride toward the plate, making all of his pitches play up even more as he’s tremendously close to the plate when he releases them, but it also means that he can get off balance in his delivery more easily, and it can affect the control of his fastball and change quite a bit. I really would love to see a split finger in Glasnow’s arsenal if his fingers would be able to handle it because at his height, the pitch could be absolutely devastating as a fourth pitch.

13. Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves, Braves #2

Albies will turn 20 over this weekend, and he’s already reached AAA, made a position, moved back to AA to play alongside his future middle infield mate, and along the way won a batting title and showed power that many said was not present in his swing. There were plenty of legit reasons to consider Albies a top 10 overall prospect and the #1 prospect in the Braves system before a fractured elbow ended his season (and the real chances that his AA Mississippi team had in the championship series). The unsure nature of the recovery from his elbow injury leads to just enough future question that he’s here on the list – not dropped tremendously, but enough to hedge on that elbow not healing right all season and setting his development back a year. Albies invoked the one comparison that I have not heard a true scout use as a comparison since he exploded onto the scene, and that’s Jose Altuve. Albies, like Altuve, generates a ton of force on the ball with his swing from a smaller stature, allowing him to pound the gaps and pick up a handful or two of home runs, even in tough pitching environments like he was in with his home park in Mississippi. Albies has legit plus-plus speed, and he does very well controlling the strike zone. While he has a plus arm on defense, he is a bit erratic, and that is what led to the decision to shift him to second base and continue Swanson at short in their development. Albies will be handled with care on his elbow as the Braves have long-term plans for him and they want to ensure he’s able to be healthy for them.

12. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox, White Sox #3

The Cespedes Family Barbeque Podcast guys may not like me for having their boy here, but Giolito has shown some kinks in the armor in 2016. There is some hope that getting with a different pitching instructor could help him get to the point of elite again, but for now, he’s dropped a touch to me. Of course, he’s still #12, so that’s all relative, of course. Giolito has always been known for getting tremendous plane on his high-90s fastball from his 6’6 frame, but that fastball flattened out plenty in my viewings of him in the minors this year, and he seemed to get torched in the majors on his fastball as well. His fastball is a four-seamer as well, so he doesn’t get a ton of sink to the pitch, so when it flattens out, it’s like putting a high-velocity ball on a platter for hitters because a pitch at that velocity made even decent contact is going to jump. The Nationals attempted to help Giolito by making a few mechanical tweaks that I noticed after he had been up for his first big league call up, but that seemed to only make matters worse. Hopefully, getting out of Washington and to Chicago will allow him to return to that elite pitcher status as he would have been the top-ranked remaining player on the list from last season’s list for me, but he dropped overall.

11. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays, Blue Jays #1

It seems fitting in the season that his father Vladimir Guerrero would have his first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot (and is doing quite well, I may add), Junior has his first professional exposure and blows beyond any possible expectations that the Blue Jays could have had for him. He was bumped past the Dominican Summer League straight to low-level rookie ball, and he hit with such force that he was quickly pushed to the Appalachian League, where he found himself pitted against 2015 high school draft picks, 2016 college draft picks, and 2013-2014 international signees. As one of the youngest players in the league, he was certainly one of the ones who stood out the most with his play on the field as well. He certainly looked more mature than his 17 years as he tallied a 33/35 BB/K ratio on the year. The bat will be the big thing that carries Vlad, Jr. going forward as he has double plus raw power and already shows plus game power. He has a bit of a load to his swing, but once he’s in the zone, the bat explodes through the zone, generating a ton of force on the ball. He moved from the outfield to third base, and while the transition was not perfect, it went much better than many had expected. While he may end up best suited at DH long-term, Toronto did not sign him for any defensive value. As long as his big power and surprising athleticism (15 stolen bases in spite of a fringe-average run tool) can push him forward, he’ll have a future spot in the Toronto lineup.

Next: #6-10

10. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox, White Sox #2

As his teammate Giolito seemed to struggle with getting himself righted throughout 2016, Lopez seemed to continue to find new and more impressive ways to jump ahead as a pitcher. Lopez is a guy who was known coming into the season as a big velocity guy with a good curve that definitely had peoples’ attention. He had struggled with his command and his change, however, and that really led many to believe that he would eventually be a reliever. Instead, he found a different movement within his delivery that allowed him to be much more consistent in 2016, allowing his change to play up, and he also found ways to add wrinkles to both his fastball and curve, allowing him to really leave hitters guessing what would be coming next, even if they guessed the right pitch! He’s not built huge, but like Pedro Martinez, he’s built with very long limbs and uses them to extend toward the plate, allowing his frequently-triple digit stuff to appear with even more velocity.

9. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets, Mets #1

Rosario was a guy who had the tag of “elite defender, light bat” coming into 2016 spring training, when I started to read all sorts of reports of the way the ball was absolutely leaping off of his bat into the corners and gaps. That caused me to gobble him up in a number of dynasty leagues I’m in that he was not owned in yet. He carried that spring performance forward, and he took what had been a light-hitting profile into 42 extra base hits between high-A and AA in 2016. He also was able to maintain his excellent defensive work while taking these steps forward with his bat. He has tremendous feel for shortstop, and while he may have just above-average range, he does have a legit plus-plus arm that allows him to make ridiculous plays that most shortstops have to pocket because their arm isn’t strong enough to accomplish the out. Rosario is a plus runner, but his running is more seen in his base running than his base stealing, and it was evident in his ability to load up triples this season, tallying 13 on the year. Rosario is in a perfect system to push forward as the Mets really do not have anyone ahead of him who will keep him away from taking over the shortstop job, so if he continues his push forward, he could be looking at opening 2018 as the Mets shortstop.

8. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers #1

While the Dodgers signed a number of big targets in their big spending of the 2015 international free agent class, Alvarez was absolutely the crown of that class. He was signed for roughly $16M out of Cuba, and for what bonuses were at the time, that could like like a steal if he keeps up what he did in his first season in 2016. Alvarez topped triple digits multiple times on the year and sits with an easy mid-90s fastball on the mound that he pairs with a slider that he can use with two grips to get different looks to hitters. Add in a change that I truly saw as a plus pitch in the games I saw of his, when I’d been led to believe by preseason reports that the pitch was an average pitch at best, and you have a three-pitch plus combination for a 20 year-old making his professional debut and really looking like he was too advanced for full season ball. The Dodgers were handling his innings carefully after the layoff and not really ever taxing his arm heavily, so it wouldn’t surprise if he barely clears the 100 IP mark in 2017, so set your DVRs for high-A or AA, wherever he lands, because his starts should be prime-time viewing material.

7. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals, Nationals #1

When Giolito was traded, I had a number of people asked if that changed my #1 for the Nationals, and I said that it did not, and Robles is the big reason why. He was already established as the guy I would have #1 in the system from the second I started working on lists this year. Signed in 2013, Robles made his state side debut in 2015 and really got noticed as he beat up on the GCL and NYPL. The Nationals opened him in full-season ball at just 18 years old, one of the youngest position players in the South Atlantic League, and after just 64 games there, he was bumped up to high-A. Robles does have a solid physical build to him, but he probably gets more credit for being a 5-tool type than really he should. His swing does very well to be able to make excellent contact, he has plus-plus speed, and plus defensive ability with a plus arm. His power, however is average presently, and though he’s flashed some raw power in the cage, it’s with a different swing than he uses in game, so it’s likely he won’t ever truly reach a high level of power in his game. However, with his current power projection of 10-15 home runs along with his elite speed giving him the ability to steal 35-50 bases in a year, you could be looking at a guy who gives you early-career Johnny Damon production, though with a plus arm. He does have a bit of a strikeout bugaboo, but much of that is due to his aggressive approach with his contact ability, so he certainly could develop more patience as he works his way up the ladder toward D.C.

6. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs, Cubs #1

The Cubs dipped heavily into the international free agent pool in 2013, and the next two players on the list were their two jewels of that class, though only one remains in the system, and that’s Jimenez. Eloy was known more due to his bonus before this season as most hadn’t really seen a lot of production to think he could be a breakout candidate. However, break out he certainly did. While Moncada may have won the MVP of the game, no one received more talk from the Futures Game at All Star Game week than did Jimenez. He has an incredible build that is cut to create power, and while he pounded the gaps so far with 40 doubles and 14 home runs, he projects to hit for much more power over the fence as he advances. He’s got a prototype right field plus power, plus arm profile, and he showed more ability defensively this season in tracking balls than he had before, leading some to grade him as a fringe-plus defensive outfielder overall. He will be in high-A as a 20 year old in 2017, and it wouldn’t surprise to see him jump a few levels at some point soon as he gets his strike zone judgement ironed out to compliment everything else that he’s got working so well for him right now.

Next: #Top 5