Seattle Mariners: Are They Contenders?
After being in the wild card race right down to the last week of the 2016 season, will the Seattle Mariners be legitimate contenders in 2017?
The Seattle Mariners haven’t been to the playoffs since 2001, but are coming off a season in which they were in contention in the final week of the season. They also have a general manager who is more than willing to make moves to try to improve the team. Jerry Dipoto took over as Mariners GM in September 2015 and has made 34 trades since then, the most in baseball. The Atlanta Braves’ 25 trades are second-most during that time.
Recently, the Mariners made two separate trades that essentially swapped platoon outfielder Seth Smith for platoon outfielder Jarrod Dyson and pitcher Nate Karns for pitcher Yovani Gallardo. After the trades Dipoto said, “We feel we have five legitimate center fielders” in Dyson, Leonys Martin, Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel, and Guillermo Heredia. He also explained the acquisition of Gallardo, a pitcher with a declining fastball who had a 5.42 ERA in an injury-shortened season last year.
So, as the team is currently constructed, are the Seattle Mariners contenders in 2017? With the caveat that much can happen between now and Opening Day, the American League appears to have two co-favorites on the top tier in Boston and Cleveland, with the Astros right below them. As it happens, those three teams are in separate divisions. I would say they are the favorites to win the AL East, Central, and West, respectively.
This puts the Mariners in with a mix of teams vying for the two wild card spots. FanGraphs has the American League projected like this (as of January 7):
93-69 Red Sox
91-71 Indians
90-72 Astros
84-78 Angels
83-79 Yankees
83-79 Tigers
82-80 Mariners
82-80 Rangers
82-80 Blue Jays
82-80 Rays
78-84 Royals
78-84 Athletics
78-84 Orioles
75-87 Twins
71-91 White Sox
You can quibble with the specifics. I’m sure most people would not expect the Los Angeles Angels to be the fourth-best team in the AL and the Orioles and Royals have done better than expected in recent years. Some teams haven’t finished their off-season moves, but with Dipoto at the helm the Mariners are probably still looking to make moves. In general, though, the Mariners look to be in the mix.
On the following slides are the main players expected to play each position with the combined projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for that position, according to FanGraphs. As a reminder, this is a guide to WAR:
0-1 WAR: Scrub
0-2 WAR: Role player
2-3 WAR: Solid Starter (2 WAR is league average)
3-4 WAR: Good Player
4-5 WAR: All-Star
5-6 WAR: Superstar
6+ WAR: MVP
Let’s take a look at the Mariners hitting, starting pitching, and relief pitching.
Catcher—3.0 WAR
Mike Zunino—2.1 WAR (416 PA)
Carlos Ruiz—0.8 WAR (192 PA)
Mike Zunino is coming off the best stretch of hitting he’s had in his four years in the big leagues, but it came in a 55-game sample. He spent the first 3 ½ months of the season in Triple-A, where he made big improvements in his strikeout rate, which has been his biggest problem as a hitter. When he came up to the major leagues in July, he started off well but got progressively worse:
.241/.353/.655, 20.6% strikeout rate—July (34 PA)
.212/.346/.515, 33.3% strikeout rate—August (81 PA)
.188/.273/.348, 40.3% strikeout rate—September/October (77 PA)
The biggest concern is that Zunino struck out at a higher rate each month he was in the major leagues last year. The improvement he showed in the beginning of the year seemed to disappear. He’s projected to hit .220/.289/.412 with a strikeout rate of 29.2%. That would be worse than he hit in his 55-game sample last year but an improvement on his career line. At 26 years old, that’s not out of the question, but there’s no guarantee he’s solved his strikeout problems either. The back up is 38-year-old Carlos Ruiz, who can still get on base at a good clip but doesn’t hit for much power. At his age, the Mariners wouldn’t want to have to use him too much. They are really hoping Zunino can seize the job for good.
First Base—1.0 WAR
Danny Valencia—0.5 WAR (455 PA)
Dan Vogelbach—0.5 WAR (231 PA)
As of right now, first base looks like the biggest weakness for the offense. Vogelbach was acquired in a trade for Mike Montgomery last season and has hit well in Triple-A. He’s projected to be solid at getting on base but without much power. He also hasn’t proven he can hit lefties. Valencia has a bit more power but worst on base abilities. He’s a lefty-masher who may end up getting too many at-bats against right-handed pitchers (career .288 OBP versus righties).
Second Base—3.7 WAR
Robinson Cano—3.7 WAR (630 PA)
Cano has been with the Mariners for three seasons and has averaged 4.4 WAR per year, so that projection might be a bit low. His 2.1 WAR in 2015 was his worst season since 2008. He played that year with a stomach issue that likely affected him more than he was willing to admit. He had double hernia surgery after the season. He will be 34 years old, though, and players aren’t aging as well as they used to. I’d expect around 4-5 WAR in 2017, a slight bump from the projections.
Shortstop—2.2 WAR
Jean Segura—2.1 WAR (623 PA)
Segura was good in 2013 (.294/.329/.423), then had two seasons in which he was right around replacement-level. He busted out last year with the Diamondbacks when he hit .319/.368/.499 and had a career-high 20 homers (5.0 WAR). The Mariners acquired Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis in a trade for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte in November. Segura has the ability to be better than his projection, but those two ugly years in 2014 and 2015 and a .353 Batting Average on Balls In Play in 2016 suggest he won’t repeat last season. That .353 BABIP last year was .041 higher than his career mark. An optimistic Mariner fan can see upside on his 2.1 WAR projection, maybe in the 3-4 WAR range.
Third Base—4.0 WAR
Kyle Seager—3.9 WAR (630 PA)
Seager has had five strong seasons in a row and looks to keep the streak going. He’s about as consistent as they come. Last year was the best season of his career, as he set career-highs in numerous categories. He’s rock solid.
Left Field—2.0 WAR
Jarrod Dyson—1.7 WAR (420 PA)
Ben Gamel—0.1 WAR (140 PA)
Guillermo Heredia—0.1 WAR (70 PA)
Dyson has never been a league average hitter. He has mediocre on-base ability and no power and he doesn’t hit left-handed pitching very well at all. When he gets on base, he can run, though. He’s averaged 31 steals per year over the last five years, despite never having more than 340 plate appearances in a season. He’s also a terrific fielder, which is the main reasons Dipoto acquired him. Dipoto wants a great defensive outfield and Dyson helps him get there. Gamel has hit well in Triple-A over the last two years but only has 67 major league plate appearances. Heredia has 107 major league plate appearances. They are both question marks simply because they haven’t proven they can be productive major league players yet. This spot won’t provide much offense, but the defense should be very good.
Center Field—1.9 WAR
Leonys Martin—1.5 WAR (609 PA)
Jarrod Dyson—0.4 WAR (70 PA)
Leonys Martin has had the same struggles against left-handed pitching as Dyson in his career. Either player can handle center field, but the Mariners may end up needing a right-handed bat to play the position against tough lefties. If that’s the case, Gamel, Heredia, or Haniger could get time here. Martin had a very good start to last season. Through June 15, he was hitting .255/.332/.473, with 10 home runs in 49 games. Everything was coming up roses. From that point on he hit .244/.294/.334 with 5 home runs in 94 games. That was barely better than his terrible 2015 season with the Rangers. Hopefully, a respectable version of Martin will show up this year. Dyson can play center field even better than Martin, so there’s no drop-off defensively with either in the lineup.
Right Field—2.2 WAR
Mitch Haniger—1.6 WAR (490 PA)
Danny Valencia—0.1 WAR (70 PA)
Nelson Cruz—0.3 WAR (70 PA)
The Mariners are hoping Haniger can handle right field on a regular basis so they can keep Nelson Cruz away from fly balls. Haniger has played in 34 games in the big leagues, all coming last year with the Diamondbacks. He hit .229/.309/.404. He was very good in Triple-A before that, hitting .341/.428/.670 with 20 homers 74 games, so there’s upside here with the 26-year-old.
Designated Hitter—2.1 WAR
Nelson Cruz—1.9 WAR (560 PA)
Dan Vogelbach—0.1 WAR (70 PA)
Cruz has averaged 4.2 WAR per season over the last three years, so this projection probably looks light to Mariners fans. Of course, he will be 36 years old and age catches up to every player at some point. I think between 2 and 4 WAR is reasonable, but I wouldn’t expect another 40 HR season from him.
Much like the last two seasons, the offense will be built around Cano, Seager, and Cruz. The team is also expecting Segura will resemble the top-of-the-lineup player he was last year. Zunino will provide power but little on-base ability. Haniger should also provide some power. Dyson and Martin can each steal 20 or more bases. Offensively, the outfield is filled with uncertainty, but they can sure field the ball well, which should help the Mariners pitching rotation. That’s good because the rotation looks like it will need all the help it can get.
Starting Pitchers—11.8 WAR
Felix Hernandez—3.1 WAR (206 IP)
Hisashi Iwakuma—2.4 WAR (179 IP)
James Paxton—3.4 WAR (171 IP)
Yovani Gallardo—1.0 WAR (135 IP)
Ariel Miranda—1.3 WAR (138 IP)
Last year, Felix Hernandez had his highest ERA since 2007. In fact, his ERAs the last two years have been higher than any season since 2007. He’s also seen his strikeout rate drop from 27.2% to 23.1% to 18.6% over the last three years and his walk rate increase from 5.0% to 7.0% to 9.9%. These are warning signs and there’s more. His fastball velocity has dropped from 92.4 mph to 91.8 to 90.5 and his home run rates the last two years have been higher than any season since 2007. He’ll be 31 years old in April.
There are many indicators suggesting King Felix Hernandez is no longer the pitcher he once was. His projection for 3.1 WAR looks optimistic considering he’s been worth 4 WAR total over the last two years. It is possible he wasn’t healthy for much of last season. He missed about eight weeks from late May to mid-July with a calf injury. Before the injury he had a 2.86 ERA and 4.13 FIP. After he returned, he had a 4.48 ERA and 4.98 FIP (FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s a metric that looks at the three things a pitcher controls the most—strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed—to create an estimate of how many runs per nine innings the pitcher should allow and is on the same scale as ERA). If health was a big part of Felix’ struggles, he could bounce back. I don’t expect him to return to the 6 WAR pitcher he was from 2012 to 2014, though.
Like Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma had a down year in 2016. His ERA was over 4.00 for the first time, as was his FIP (4.27). He struck out fewer batters than the previous three seasons and walked more. He’ll be 36 in April. Because the rest of the pitching rotation has varying degrees of uncertainty, Iwakuma is the team’s #2 starter, but he’s more of a #3 or #4 starter at this point of his career.
James Paxton is projected to be the team’s best starting pitcher but he’ll have to prove he can stay healthy to reach those expectations. He’s averaged just 87 1/3 innings over the last three years, with last year’s 121 innings being a career high. It was also his best year based on the things a pitcher has the most control over, strikeouts and walks. His 3.79 ERA last year was inflated by a high Batting Average on Balls In Play of .347. His career BABIP allowed is .303. Health permitting, he looks ready to take a step forward.
I’m not impressed with Yovani Gallardo. He had a good stretch of season with the Milwaukee Brewers from 2009 to 2012, then turned into more of a league average innings eater. Then last year he wasn’t league average or an innings eater, with a 5.42 (5.04 FIP) in 118 innings. His fastball velocity dropped below 90 mph for the first time in his career and is down three miles per hour from his peak. He has a below average strikeout rate, so he’ll need the Mariners defense to help him keep runs off the board. Projections have him as a below average pitcher but above replacement level.
Ariel Miranda is penciled into the #5 slot in the rotation, but every team in baseball will use more than five starters so he’s interchangeable with the other options the Mariners have. Those options include Chris Heston, Cody Martin, and Rob Whalen. Miranda started 10 games for the Mariners last year and had a 3.88 ERA, but it was not supported by his peripherals. His FIP was 5.25. He’s projected for an ERA in the mid-4.00s.
The Mariners have good pitching in their minor league system. Rob Whalen was ranked 112th in the Call to the Pen Top-125 Prospects. Nick Neidert was ranked 97th and Luiz Gohara was ranked 71st. Whalen pitched five games for the Braves last year, so he’s the most likely of these three prospects to help the team in 2017. Neidert and Gohara both pitched in A ball. They are still a few years away from the big leagues.
The Mariners starting rotation looks like the weak spot on the team at this point. At the front of the rotation, they are relying on bounce back seasons from Felix Hernandez and Hasashi Iwakuma and a healthy season from James Paxton. They’re also looking for improvement from last year in effectiveness and health from Yovani Gallardo. The #4 and #5 spots could be a revolving door during the season until, hopefully, someone steps up and claims a spot for good.
Bullpen—4.1 WAR
Edwin Diaz—1.7 WAR (65 IP)
Steve Cishek—0.9 WAR (65 IP)
Nick Vincent—0.5 WAR (55 IP)
Evan Scribner—0.4 WAR (55 IP)
Marc Rzepczynski—0.2 WAR (40 IP)
James Pazos—0.2 WAR (45 IP)
Steve Cishek was the closer at the start of last season until young Edwin Diaz took over the role in August. Diaz started the year in the minor leagues before joining the Mariners in June. In 51 2/3 innings, he struck out an incredible 88 batters. Only three relievers with more than 50 innings pitched struck out batters at a higher rate than Diaz—Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Kenley Jansen. Yes, Diaz struck out batters at a greater rate than Aroldis Chapman, who signed a 5-year, $86 million contract with the Yankees in the off-season. Diaz attacks hitters with a 97 mph fastball and 87 mph slider.
With Diaz in the closer’s role, there will likely be a competition for the setup spot among Steve Cishek, Nick Vincent, and Evan Scribner. Cishek and Vincent have both had trouble with lefties in their careers. Scribner missed most of last season with a shoulder injury before pitching in 12 games in relief in September. All three have similar projections from FanGraphs.
The left-handed options at the moment are James Pazos and Marc Rzepczynski. Pazos is the unproven youngster with just 8 1/3 major league innings in his career. Rzepczynski has averaged around 40 innings per year over the last five years. He’s been good against left-handed hitters in his career but really struggles against righties. He needs to be used strategically.
Bullpens in the big leagues are constantly in flux. Players can change roles, move up and down from the minor leagues, and get injured. The Mariners look to have four right-handed pitchers who can all strike out a batter per nine innings and a few options from the left-hand side. They are projected to be a top-10 bullpen after finishing in the middle-of-the-pack last year.
With good hitting and a good bullpen, the Mariners should be contenders for a wild card spot despite their starting rotation. I don’t think they can stick with the Astros in the AL West, but they look about as good as any of the other half-dozen teams on the cusp of contention.