Tampa Bay Rays: Let’s Make a 2017 Contender
The Tampa Bay Rays have some nice pieces on their roster, but probably not enough to ultimately compete in the AL East or even for a wild card spot. The trade rumors all winter have been circulating around starting pitching, which Tampa has. But what if…
We’re all waiting for something to happen at this point in the offseason. There was a small flurry of moves during the winter meetings, but since then not a lot of actual moves outside of Edwin Encarnacion signing with Cleveland. Right now the big storyline is just how many free agents are still left on the market. Teams and players seem to be playing a game of chicken, and until a player signs, the teams have no incentive to budge on their offers with so many similar options available on the market. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point.
This perpetual cycle got me to thinking: What if a team just signed a bunch of these guys and tried to made a run? What would they need to have already? What would they be in need of?
While the Tampa Bay Rays are not big spenders in team payroll, we’re not necessarily talking about adding top-of-the-market players like Mark Trumbo. The Rays could take a bunch of one-year chances and hope for the best. Santiago Casilla would be a solid depth add to the bullpen. So would Boone Logan or Sergio Romo. Each of those three would play a role in helping out the Rays 4.09 bullpen ERA (4.45 FIP) from last year. None of them will break the bank, and two of them could potentially be had for a combined $10-12M.
There are reports out there that Tampa has agreed to terms with Colby Rasmus on a deal for 2017, and his addition feels like a very Tampa-esque move. Rasmus has shown plus defensive skills at any of the outfield positions, and pairing him with Kevin Kiermaier out there will improve the Tampa outfield defense. He can also knock the ball out of the ballpark, and after a rough 2016 could be a steal for Tampa depending on what the contract is worth. Rasmus will be reunited with his old hitting coach from Toronto, Chad Mattola, who has helped Colby reach success in the past.
The addition of Rasmus provides an upgrade at the plate over either Steven Souza or Corey Dickerson, both of whom are better defensively but roughly average at the dish. While Souza (R) and Dickerson (L) bat from opposite sides of the plate, Souza’s reverse splits make a straight platoon a tricky proposition.
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If Brad Miller continues his role at first base with Matt Duffy manning short and Logan Forsythe at second, then it would appear that the Rays wouldn’t need to add one of the big boppers off the free agent market to help compliment their new lineup. Yet, their prospects at DH are a little less promising, so offering Mike Napoli or Chris Carter a contract wouldn’t be a terrible idea. Tampa could even make the same offer–one that they are comfortable with–to both players and whichever player bites first gets the deal.
The difference between the two players last season was hardly noticeable. Their 2016 fWARs are separated by one-tenth (0.9 to 1.0), Carter had seven more homers but Napoli had a nine point edge in wRC+ (104 to 113), and their walk and strikeout rates are also in sync. Carter may be more apt to accept the deal as he has spent most of his career slugging for teams trying to build up their fortunes (Oakland, Houston and Milwaukee), while Napoli is a few years older and could be looking for a chance to compete for another ring.
The Rays starters, in a year in which Chris Archer struggled to begin the year and nobody necessarily stood out, ranked 11th in starter’s ERA with a 4.26 mark. With a rotation of Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Alex Cobb and Blake Snell there is a lot of upside to get excited about. Heck, the Rays could still trade either Smyly or Odorizzi for a minor prospect haul and spend a little on bringing in Jason Hammel as a veteran presence if they wanted.
A bullpen of Alex Colome, a healthy Brad Boxberger, one or two of the free agents mentioned, and some other intriguing pieces like Danny Farquhar and Xavier Cedeno, and the Rays have the makings of a team that could sneak up on people.
Is this the best course of action for the Rays to take? Probably not. It would get the baseball world buzzing and may even bring an extra dozen fans to the ballpark, but spending money for the sake of doing so has not been Tampa’s style. Is it fun to think about some “what if” scenarios? Absolutely.
These moves may not be enough to improve the club enough for a playoff spot, but they would certainly get them closer than it looks like they’ll be right now in a tough AL East.