MLB: Three Breakout Players That Will Regress

Gary Sanchez

Let’s get the most controversial inclusion on this list out of the way first: Gary Sanchez‘s historic rookie performance will prove to be a hoax. Now, before I say anything else, let me say I do think Sanchez will be a great player. He is very young and has tremendous upside to his game. Sanchez will be a good power producer, with his max being 30 home runs. However, trends are showing that as pitchers figured out Sanchez, his numbers took a tremendous dip. While it is true that this is a natural occurrence in the game of baseball, I think an entire season of Gary Sanchez will show us he is not this superstar prodigy we all think he is.

The biggest thing going against Sanchez is how he ended the season after his historic August. In August, Sanchez slugged 11 home runs and 21 runs batted in during a 24-game stretch. He batted .389 and seemed to be the next big thing behind the plate. However, after August we began to see the holes in Sanchez’s game, likely leading to a less dynamic 2017. In 28 games after August, Sanchez’s average dipped to .225. He still slugged nine home runs, albeit in 11 more plate appearances. He struck out 35 times, 14 more than in August. That led to a 10 percent increase in his strikeout rate.

Sanchez’s mellowed-out end to the season proves to be our judging point for 2017. Yes, it is unfair to judge him on one month of performance. On that basis, though, we cannot accept that he is a superstar on just August alone. As the season drags on, Sanchez will realize hitting home runs in the big leagues isn’t as easy as he thought.