MLB: Top 5 Remaining Free Agents on the Market
With the calendar turning to 2017, the MLB offseason will be over before we know it. Playoff football will divert everyone’s attention for another month until all of a sudden it’s Spring Training again. Baseball is likely the last thing on people’s minds in January, but not for a true follower of the sport. The biggest free agents have already signed, but there is certainly more to come.
It’s been a strange offseason for MLB free agents. The largest signing of the year will undoubtedly be Yoenis Cespedes returning to the Mets for 4-years and $110M. In fact Aroldis Chapman, Dexter Fowler, and Kenley Jansen are the only other free agents to sign for $80M or more. Compare that to last year’s offseason, which featured seven free agent signings of $100M or more, including two in excess of $200M. With none of the top free agents remaining, it’s clear that no one will reach that threshold this offseason.
Luckily, several teams are still looking to make additions, and there remains a handful of solid options to choose from. We know the Rangers and Astros are looking to add a starting pitcher, while the A’s want some right-handed power. The Braves seem eager to make more additions, and of course, everybody wants to add to their bullpen.
So, let’s talk about the list a bit before we get into it. It’s already been pointed out that the top free agents are off the board, which means most of these players are hoping to rebound in 2017. The majority of them are defensively challenged, and none of them registered an fWAR of 2.0 last season. Injuries are a risk too, as every player on this list is above the age of 30. That being said, there are some very high-reward players left on the free agent market.
Honorable Mentions
Not everybody is going to fit in a top-5 list, that’s just the reality of it. Unfortunately for relievers Sergio Romo, and Greg Holland, the injury risk is very much a concern. They have the potential to be elite (Holland more than Romo), but spent little-to-no time on the field in 2016. An elbow injury limited Romo to just 30.2 innings last season, and Holland missed the entire year to Tommy John surgery. In all fairness, there is a solid argument for both Romo and Holland to be ranked in the top 5 of who’s left.
For some, the issue is health. In the cases of Coco Crisp and Austin Jackson, the problem is performance. Both Crisp and Jackson can play all three outfield positions, but provided negative value by fWAR standards in 2016. Crisp is already 37 years old, but Jackson is still just 29 (30 in February). Crisp was a World Champion with the Red Sox in 2007, and provided the Indians with clutch hitting this postseason, recording a .922 OPS and slugging two homers. Jackson is more valuable defensively than with the bat, but in the past he’s been good for 10+ home runs and some speed on the basepaths. Both will make less money than anyone on this list, but they’re less likely to contribute in any significant way.
5. RP Joe Blanton, Los Angeles Dodgers
You know it’s an interesting year when Joe Blanton is the top reliever available in free agency. Blanton spent the majority of his career as a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Oakland A’s. You could depend on him for 190 innings and an ERA in the upper-3.00 to upper-4.00 range. Of course in the mid 2000s, that was acceptable. In other words he’s been a very unremarkable player. If anything, he’ll probably be remembered most for the World Series home run (which he hit with his eyes closed) with the Phillies in 2008. Either that, or the NLCS grand slam he surrendered to Miguel Montero of the Cubs this year. I’m sure he’d prefer the former to the latter if he had a say.
Blanton’s career seemed to be nearing its end after his 2014 campaign with the Angels, when he posted a 6.04 ERA in 20 starts and 8 relief appearances. The Royals decided to pick him up on a minor league deal for 2015, mostly working him as a reliever. He was flipped to Pittsburgh in July of the same year, and once again Pirates pitching coach/wizard Ray Searage worked his magic.
Last season with the Dodgers, Blanton had a 2.48 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 80.0 innings. More advanced metrics such as SIERA (3.57) and xFIP (4.15) were less impressed with his work. This can be explained by Blanton posting a career best .192 BAA and his lowest HR rate since 2007. In all likelihood, he will likely take a step back next season. Luckily for teams, his age dictates that he will only require a short term commitment. If he can keep his ERA below 3.00 next season, Blanton is a bargain deal.
Estimated Offer – 2 years/$12M
4. OF/1B Brandon Moss, St. Louis Cardinals
Brandon Moss is an old school type of player. He doesn’t believe in batting average. He just tries to pull the fastball, and hit it hard. As it turns out, he’s pretty good at it. Since earning regular playing time in 2012, Moss has hit no less than 19 home runs in a season. While he’s a good bet for 25 bombs, he comes with limitations. His poor on base skills and penchant for striking out undoubtedly limit Moss’ value to teams. Moss is no defensive wiz, but he isn’t going to be detrimental in the field either.
On the positive side, Moss is a decent bounce-back candidate. His .261 BABIP last year was the lowest he’s recorded in a full season. If he can get that closer to his career mark of .291 without losing the power, Brandon Moss will be a 2-3 win player. Assuming he signs for less than $15M annually, he’ll be a good low-cost addition to teams in need of left-handed power. The Phillies are reportedly in the market for exactly that, and Moss’ name has already come up. Following Mitch Moreland’s departure, the Rangers may also be on the lookout for a lefty. Plus, Rajai Davis is headed back to Oakland, so we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of Moss following suit.
Estimated Offer – 1 year/$12M w/ club option for 2018
3. SP Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs
Jason Hammel is a good pitcher, but he’s a free agent in the wrong year. Following his release from the World Champion Cubs, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported that Hammel was given the choice between testing the market and staying in Chicago for another year. Hammel and his agent were likely anticipating a competitive market, but that hasn’t been the case. Fortunately he has no draft pick compensation tied to his name, so the only opportunity cost to teams is a monetary one.
Hammel is a solid 3-4 starter in the rotation, capable of logging 160+ innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Due to the low number of innings he can be relied upon for, Hammel will likely demand no more than $15M annually. The Yankees have reportedly kept an eye on Hammel, and the Rangers seem to be interested as well. Judging by their interest in practically every player available, the Astros may pursue him if they pass on Jose Quintana. As a 34 year old, Hammel will probably be limited to a 1-2 year deal at most. My guess is that he lands in the AL West for one year with a club option.
Estimated Offer – 1 year/$15M w/ club option for 2018
2. 1B/DH Mike Napoli, Cleveland Indians
If not for his advanced age, it’s doubtful that Napoli would have lasted this long without a team. Now limited to first base and DH, Napoli will provide whichever team signs him with plenty of power. Last season, at 34 years old, he hit a career-high 34 homers. It feels lazy to project him hitting 35 bombs as a 35 year old in ‘17, but he’s actually got a good chance to do that. Due to his profile as a player, advanced metrics aren’t really a fan of Napoli’s work. Fangraphs pegs Napoli at 4.1 WAR since 2014, likely because of his well-below average defense and low OBP numbers.
Just because the market has slowed down doesn’t mean Napoli has anything to worry about. A team like the Oakland A’s, who missed out on Edwin Encarnacion may pursue the slugging first baseman. A reunion with the Texas Rangers, with whom he had his best season, can’t be ruled out either. Although they just signed James Loney to a minor-league pact, Texas is still reportedly pursuing Napoli.
Mike Napoli is still in play for the Rangers
— TR Sullivan (@Sullivan_Ranger) January 21, 2017
He’s was a World Champion with the Red Sox in 2013, and can be looked to by younger players as the veteran leader. Napoli has a fantastic reputation among players and fans, and will be a valuable asset wherever he goes.
Estimated Offer – 1 year/$14M
1. C Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles
When the Orioles opted not to make Matt Wieters a qualifying offer, it almost felt like they were doing him a favor. As it turns out, Wieters has had a hard enough time finding a team without being tied to draft pick compensation. A former first-round pick, Wieters is one of the rare non-pitchers to have undergone Tommy John surgery. He missed most of the ‘14 season, and half of the ‘15 season to that injury, and that severely hurt his stock. In 2016, Wieters bounced back to post a .711 OPS with 17 homers. That’s below average when looking at the entire league, but it’s more production than most teams get out of their catcher.
One thing that is definitely in his favor is that Wieters has had positive defensive stats throughout his entire career. For a catcher, that’s really important. It basically guarantees you a job no matter what. The problem is, it hasn’t been enough to earn Wieters a job next season yet. Teams have been very careful with their money this year, which surely hasn’t done him any good. After the Orioles picked up Welington Castillo as their new backstop, it was apparent that Wieters would be on the move. Nationals star Bryce Harper has started publicly campaigning for his team to sign the respected backstop, which really comes as a surprise to no one.
#Nationals still have interest in both Wieters & Holland..but they are way over budget on Spring Training Complex making decision difficult
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) January 18, 2017
Matt Wieters/Greg Holland > Team Store! #NatsNatsNatswoooooo https://t.co/aXPpp5qZLR
— Bryce Harper (@bryceharper3) January 18, 2017
Based on their need for improvement, the Rockies, Mets, and Braves are all viable candidates to sign Wieters. Of these teams, I suspect he’ll sign with the Nationals. Nationals Park is literally less than an hour away from his old team, and the Nats may not feel comfortable relying on Derek Norris to catch on a regular basis. Of all the players remaining in free agency, Wieters is the only one likely to sign for more than $20M.
Estimated Offer – 2 years/35M