MLB: Ranking the Teams That Will Regress in 2017
By Jason Reed
2. Baltimore Orioles
- 2016 Record: 89-73
- Projected 2017 Record: 81-81 (Difference: -8)
Losing the same amount of wins as the Chicago White Sox, the Baltimore Orioles will see themselves fall out of playoff contention. Although they did just resign slugger Mark Trumbo, that move alone may not be enough to bolster a great playoff push. The Orioles seem to be losing Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez, and Steve Pearce. While these aren’t significant losses, it may be enough to add 8 loses to their resume. The Orioles power bats has carried them in the past, and with a shaky pitching staff the power bats will not be able to carry Baltimore into October.
The problem with relying on the long ball to win games is that hitting home runs is so inconsistent. The Orioles alone have two players that justifiably have doubts on if they can be superstar sluggers. Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis are extreme power hitters that have that possibility of regressing. Davis went from 53 home runs to 26, back up to 47 then down to 38. Trumbo, outside of last year and his time as an Angel, has proven to be even more inconsistent. With Trumbo and Davis carrying the power load, they may fall off and slug a combined 40 home runs.
A combined 40 home runs is not enough to make the playoffs with their pitching rotation. Yes, it could potentially have a lot of promise but their rotation does not seem to stand on the same caliber as other playoff teams. The Orioles current rotation would have ranked 18th in Fangraphs WAR last season. The only playoff team lower is the number one inclusion on this list. Without massive power, the Orioles may level out and settle as a .500 team.