MLB Alternate Realities: What If Don Mattingly’s Back Held Up?

Don Mattingly’s place in the Hall of Fame was debated for 15 years. Had he stayed healthy, it would have been a no-brainer.

Donnie Baseball. Don Mattingly will likely go down in New York Yankees lore as the unluckiest Yankees legend of them all.

Mattingly played all 14 years in the organization that boasts more championships than any other franchise. His debut and final season were sandwiched between separate Yankees World Series dynasties. They couldn’t even get there when he returned as a coach.

We all know the skinny on Don Mattingly. It’s not fair to discuss his career as a 14-year career, because after his back went out, he was never close to the same player. Those first seven years? It was the stuff of which legends are made. They were why he hung around for debate each of the 15 years he was eligible for the Hall of Fame vote.

Sadly, with a 9.1 percent vote, Mattingly fell off the Hall of Fame ballot, hoping only to be one day elected by the Veteran’s Committee.

What if? What if Don Mattingly never threw his back out?

The left-handed first baseman was legit from the day he was drafted by the Yankees in the 19th round. He won Minor League Player of the Year honors in his second, age-20 season. That year he slashed .358/.422/.498 and hadn’t even tapped into the power that would make him a perennial Triple Crown threat.

He bounced up and down over the 1982 and 1983 seasons, but by 1984, everyone knew Donnie Baseball. You could argue Don Mattingly was the single best player in Major League Baseball from 1984 to 1988. Let’s break down some numbers from Mattingly’s healthy first seven seasons.

• A .323 average over his first seven seasons, leading the league in his first full season at .343.
• Mattingly registered 1,298 hits, 185 hits per season.
• He was a doubles machine, hitting 272 and leading MLB with 44, 48 and 53 from 1984 to 1986.
• He was the league MVP in 1985: .324/.371/.569, 35 home runs, 145 RBI, 211 hits.
• Power numbers? He had 164 home runs (23 per year) and 716 RBI (102 per year).
• 1987 saw him establish three MLB records: six grand slams in a season (the only six of his career), a home run in eight straight games, and an extra base hit in 10 straight games.
  He won five consecutive Gold Glove Awards.

Ah. 1987. The year the back first flared up. It was rumored that Mattingly and reliever Bob Shirley were wrestling in the clubhouse, which led to the slipped discs. Both to this day seemingly refute the story. There is no denying that is when it began. Mattingly missed about two weeks that season.

1988 and 1989 were down years by the lofty standards Mattingly had set for himself out of the gate. They were, however, still just fine by league standards of the day. 1990 was when the wheels came off.

Sure, Mattingly went out there as often as he could, but he was never the same. He would only hit over .300 one more time in his career — the strike-shortened 1994 season. He would never eclipse — or really come close — to a 20-home run season. Mattingly still proved to be the best defender in the league, winning four straight Gold Gloves in the twilight of his career, despite being barely able to walk at times.

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Mattingly’s career numbers were still very impressive. He slashed .307/.358/.471 and walked 144 more times than he struck out. He launched 222 home runs and 442 doubles, while tallying 2,153 hits. When the Yankees finally made the playoffs, he was brilliant, hitting .417 while launching a very memorable home run.

So what if the back never went out? By 1989, Mattingly was just in his prime at 28 years of age. A natural regression was inevitable, but it wouldn’t have been for another four or five years.

Let’s take a look at his 1988 season as a measuring stick for regression. It was statistically the worst of his seven-year run. Had he maintained the numbers of his “down” season — one which he bounced back from in 1989, mind you — until he was 33, these would be his numbers:

2,228 hits, 457 doubles, 254 home runs, 1,156 RBI with his average roughly around .315.

Those are all better numbers than his final career line. And he would have been entering his age-34 season as the All-Star first baseman for a Yankees dynasty that was about to form.

Sure, you could argue that there is no guarantees the Yankees become that dynasty with Mattingly. Tino Martinez would never have been there, which means Jeff Nelson, who came over in the same deal, wouldn’t have been part of that deadly bullpen. Russ Davis would have likely been the third baseman, which was a huge downgrade from either Wade Boggs or Charlie Hayes.

Most importantly, the league and Yankees fans would have never been teased by the home run prowess of Kevin Maas. He was labeled the next great Yankees first baseman. Oops.

Injuries are part of the game. If they weren’t, Bo Jackson would have been a first ballot Hall of Fame inductee. But in an era of some of the worst baseball in Yankees history, Mattingly was the one constant. If he was afforded the same career as some of the others enshrined before him — or even just a healthy final seven years — his numbers wouldn’t even be in question.

His Hall of Fame candidacy would be in question. His place among the all-time greats would.