MLB Shifting Focus On Catching
Down on the Farm
Baseball Prospectus produces catching metrics, some of which are available to subscribers only, but they are considered some of the best in the business currently.
While all metrics have some flaws, BP’s framing runs, blocking runs, and throwing runs all measure a catcher’s contributions above average in those areas, and they put that together in a number that they tag FRAA. They adjust that number for an average catcher based on playing time, and that is the number I’ll be focusing on as provided, as some of the numbers aren’t measured at certain levels (blocking/framing are not measured in A-ball, for instance, but you do get framing numbers at AA and AAA).
There have been a few top prospect lists released thus far. I released my top 125 in early January. Keith Law released his top 100 at the end of January, and MLB Pipeline released their list the following week.
Just going from those lists, there are a few catchers receiving national notice, and let’s look at them:
Francisco Mejia, Cleveland Indians system (#18 Keith Law, #40 MLB Pipeline, #36 Call to the Pen), had an historic hitting streak this summer, and that got him a lot of notice, but he was known in many circles already for his incredible arm. He put forth a 1.4 throwing runs rating this year in the only statistic measured for him, but he also has a tremendous defensive reputation overall.
Carson Kelly, St. Louis Cardinals system (#51 Law, #39 MLB, #94 CTTP), is a converted infielder who is still working on his catching skills. The guys at MLB have some big time love for him, and Law has spoken about his steps forward being positive, though he still has some major work to do in the non-measurable things of the game. Kelly is one of the hardest-working catching prospects in the minor leagues, however. He still has some work to do on his framing, but he did receive a positive rating on it this season in AAA.
Jorge Alfaro, Philadelphia Phillies system (#46 Law, #72 MLB, #83 CTTP), may be the guy who has the most raw skills of any catcher in the minors, but he’s also had those raw skills now for years. Alfaro is a guy who can hit the ball out of the building, but in six years hasn’t figured out how to take a walk. His catching is similar. He did get huge notice for his improvement in framing this year in AAA, and I was impressed by this, but his calling card has always been his incredible arm while his blocking has been an issue. In his short time in the majors this year, he showed rough enough to receive a -0.6 rating in blocking runs, for example.
Chance Sisco, Baltimore Orioles system (#69 Law, #99 MLB, #95 CTTP), is definitely a bat-first guy at the position, and while he’s made some strides defensively, he’s a guy that Law is highlighting in his comments. He was a combined -9.5 adjusted FRAA in 2016 between two levels. That said, the Orioles lived with Matt Wieters, who hasn’t posted a positive adjusted FRAA since 2013 and just signed Welington Castillo, who has never posted a positive adjusted FRAA in his entire career, so it’s quite likely that Sisco is in the right organization to buck what is becoming conventional thinking in the importance of catcher defense.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Zack Collins, Chicago White Sox system (#95 Law, #81 MLB, #60 CTTP), was a guy who saw his draft stock both rise and fall depending on teams’ views of him as a catcher. The White Sox are working hard to keep him behind the plate, and his work in the Arizona Fall League before and after games with coaches was noted heavily by scouts, and I’ll always give guys credit for effort. He did post a negative rating in his throwing runs metric, which was the only thing measured. Collins has received note for his improved framing ability, and he should be at levels in 2017 that will allow us to see if there was true growth there.
Baseball Prospectus’ minor league numbers reveal some interesting players to watch based on their excellence defensively.
Cameron Gallagher is an older prospect at 24 who very well may end up an organization player, but in his first season at AA in 2016, he not only showed up with his best offensive season (.259/.348/.359 with solid plate discipline), he also had the best adjusted FRAA in the minor leagues due to his excellence in framing and throwing out runners.
John Ryan Murphy was acquired by the Minnesota Twins from the New York Yankees in the 2015-2016 offseason in exchange for former top prospect Aaron Hicks. He spent most of the year in AAA, and his work with the bat was not very good at all, but defensively, he posted a framing runs number at AAA that only two major league catchers could match or exceed with 2,000 more chances to do such.
Austin Barnes has been a guy that Dodgers fans have been waiting on for a number of years, and the converted infielder has shown he’s able to handle AAA with solid seasons there the past two years, but he’s stuck behind one of the best in the league in Grandal. In 2016, Barnes posted an overall 18.7 adjusted FRAA number on the strength of 19.1 framing runs saved.
Bruce Maxwell is another “older” prospect at 26 who got his first taste of the major leagues in 2016. His numbers in the PCL hide a very average offensive approach, but he should be able to be a guy who doesn’t necessarily hurt his team offensively, and defensively, he posted positive numbers in framing and throwing in AAA.
Once a top draft pick, Mike Zunino was sent to the minors to refine his game last season, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, he certainly drew more walks, but his approach didn’t seem to change much at the big league level. Behind the plate, however, while he had been a solid framer before, he received across the board positive ratings in both the major and minor leagues in BP’s defensive metrics.