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MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 12, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; General view of Dodger Stadium before the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 12, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; General view of Dodger Stadium before the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

(W=wins, RS=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed)

Vegas odds to win the pennant in parenthesis

PECOTA

98 W, 761 RS, 597 RA—Los Angeles Dodgers (6/1)

86 W, 703 RS, 653 RA—San Francisco Giants (6/1)

78 W, 708 RS, 740 RA—Arizona Diamondbacks (60/1)

76 W, 731 RS, 788 RA—Colorado Rockies (25/1)

70 W, 660 RS, 773 RA—San Diego Padres (100/1)

 

FANGRAPHS

95 W, 742 RS, 612 RA—Los Angeles Dodgers (6/1)

87 W, 695 RS, 637 RA—San Francisco Giants (6/1)

79 W, 778 RS, 797 RA—Colorado Rockies (25/1)

77 W, 697 RS, 732 RA—Arizona Diamondbacks (60/1)

66 W, 632 RS, 774 RA—San Diego Padres (100/1)

 

Biggest difference in wins: San Diego Padres, 4 wins

Biggest difference in runs scored: Colorado Rockies, 47 runs

Biggest difference in runs allowed: San Francisco Giants 16 runs

 

Smallest difference in wins: Tie—San Francisco/Arizona, 1 win

Smallest difference in runs scored: San Francisco Giants, 8 runs

Smallest difference in runs scored: San Diego Padres, 1 run

PECOTA projects the Dodgers to finish with the best record in baseball. They won 91 games last year and are projected by PECOTA to win 98 this year. The difference is a projected increase of 36 more runs scored on offense and 41 fewer runs allowed on defense. Their projected 597 runs allowed is the best in baseball. FanGraphs also has the Dodgers with the most wins in baseball, but with a slightly more reasonable 95 wins. Both systems have the Giants finishing well behind the Dodgers but comfortably in the wild card race.

The team with the biggest difference in projected wins in this division is San Diego. PECOTA has the Padres with 70 wins, which is still six games behind the fourth-place Rockies. FanGraphs has the Padres projected to win 66 games, which would give them the worst record in baseball. Vegas agrees that the Padres will be bad. They are one of three National League teams with 100/1 odds.

The Rockies are a popular pre-season pick to be competitive, but neither system expects them to finish at .500. They may win more games than last year’s 75, but it doesn’t look like they’ll win all that many more. The Diamondbacks are expected to be much better in preventing runs. They allowed 890 runs last year. PECOTA has them projected to allow 740 and FanGraphs projects them to allow 732, which would be a marked improvement.

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