New York Yankees Rotation: Six Pitchers Ready to Make an Impact in 2017

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The New York Yankees’ starting rotation has been one of their bigger question marks over the past three seasons. Is some of their youth ready to claim their rightful spot?

Stop me if you’ve heard this one. The New York Yankees have some serious question marks surrounding their starting rotation. It isn’t a striking revelation. Their starting rotation has been inconsistent since 2012.

Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda have been the mainstays, but they have been far from reliable. Tanaka is the best of the bunch, but has yet to throw 200 innings in a season from constant queries about the health of his arm. The fourth and fifth slots have seemed to be an open audition for four seasons now.

The Yankees made a lot of strides via the draft and through trades, but most of those arms are still at least a year away. Justus Sheffield, James Kaprielian, Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu and Dillon Tate (although he looked great out of the bullpen last year) make for exciting options in 2018 and beyond. The Yankees need to fill slots this season.

The safest assumption at a starting rotation would be to peg in Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineda, Adam Warren with Luis Severino getting a second chance to shine. Warren and Severino come with as many question marks as the Yankees’ — for lack of a better description — “Big Three.” Are they better served in the bullpen, or are they truly rotation material?

Warren is coming off the worst year of his career, and has long been yo-yoed back and forth between the rotation and pen. While he has shown flashes of brilliance as a starter, his time in the bullpen was sensational.

Severino could be better served in the bullpen as well. The Yankees rushed Severino and he was brilliant in his rookie debut. The problem was he never learned how to pitch. Severino got by on a fastball (one with little movement at that), but his secondary stuff needed refining. He paid the price last season once opponents figured him out at the next level. Just 22, he still has good stuff, and has worked hard this offseason, so he will merit a second run in the rotation.

So, do the Yankees have any arms ready to crack the rotation now?

Bryan Mitchell, RHP

No surprises here. Mitchell has been up and down, in the rotation and out of the rotation since 2014. He likely would have been the Yankees’ fifth starter last season before he was injured and on the shelf until September.

His five starts weren’t awe inspiring. The six-foot-three, 210-pound righty walked more than he struck out (12 walks to 11 strikeouts) and despite posting a nice 3.24 ERA, his 4.23 FIP suggests he may have gotten a bit lucky.

Mitchell doesn’t have overwhelming stuff. He has a career walk rate of 4.3 per nine in seven career minor league seasons. He needs to learn to harness his command, and improve on the ground ball rate to get out of jams in the launching pad that is Yankee Stadium. That does not mean all is lost.

Mitchell is still 25 years old. He’s probably the least likely of the Yankees’ arms to stick in the rotation, but he could prove to be a solid innings-eater at the back of the rotation. That could be vital to a Yankees bullpen that will probably be heavily taxed come September.

Luis Cessa, RHP

The six-foot righty may be 24 years old on paper, but he is well traveled as a professional. Signed by the Mets out of Mexico for the 2009 season as an infielder before switching to the mound in 2011, he then moved on to the Detroit Tigers before coming back to New York in the Justin Wilson deal.

His rookie campaign wasn’t terrible overall, but will be overshadowed by some inconsistencies when he was needed most. John Sickels said in his Baseball Prospect Book 2016:

“The fastball/change combination was enough for him to succeed in Double-A but he found the going much more difficult in Triple-A. Cessa has the basics to be a good pitcher. He has arm strength and can command two pitches, but without a better breaking ball I think he is destined for the pen.”

This was on display in his big league debut. He hurled 70.1 innings while making nine starts in his 17 appearances. He finished at 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the heels of an impressively low 1.79 walks per nine. That doesn’t tell the whole story.

Cessa wasn’t hit a lot (limiting opponents to a .233 batting average) but when he was hit, it was hard. Despite allowing 200 ground balls to 120 fly balls, 16 left the yard. To put that in perspective, over 70.1 innings, Cessa walked 14 batters, and allowed two more home runs over that span. That is worrisome, and often means that his breaking stuff isn’t breaking, or simply isn’t good enough to fool big league hitters. A career-low 5.89 strikeouts per nine didn’t help win anyone over either.

That being said, based on last season’s experience, Cessa will likely be the first called upon when the Yankees rotation falters.

Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Montgomery, the Yankees’ 2014 fourth-rounder out of South Carolina, broke out in a big way in 2015. He followed it up last season with the best numbers of his young career.

The six-foot-six, 225-pound lefty was lights out in his Double-A debut. He went 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA and a 97-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to Eastern League Mid-Season All-Star honors. Once at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he was insane, going 5-1 with a 0.97 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, striking out 37 and walking just nine in 37 innings. The season didn’t get Montgomery an invite to the 40-man roster, but he will be heading to spring training as a non-roster invitee.

Montgomery has a fastball that he has added velocity to over his career. It hits the mid-90s and has a lot of sink, which has helped with his 1.21 career ground out to air out rate. He adds in a changeup and curveball with a big drop as well as an effective cutter. With a high-80s fastball in college, Montgomery learned to use his secondary pitches with a command of the strike zone. He can flat out pitch.

Montgomery could earn a spot with a big spring training, but it is more likely that he starts the year back in SWB and arrives in May. He likely won’t go back.

Chance Adams, RHP

Adams has gained a lot of steam the past offseason. He was sensational out of the bullpen in his 2015 debut after the Yankees selected him in the fifth round out of Dallas Baptist. He was even better in the rotation, split between Tampa and Trenton last season.

The simple truth is that despite Adams appearing as if he is being fast-tracked to the bigs, the 22-year-old will have to wait. The Yankees simply don’t rush pitching. Whether it is in the “Joba rules” or simply biding their time, it would be uncharacteristic for Adams to break spring training in the starting rotation.

Severino was the first Yankees pitcher rushed to the bigs in a while, and they paid the price in his second go-around. The young fireballer struggled with secondary pitches and getting movement on his fastball, clearly showing he needed more time to mature. The Yankees won’t make the same mistake with Adams, especially after his 2016.

The six-foot, 210-pound righty was phenomenal across two levels. He combined to go 13-1 with a 2.33 ERA, striking out 144 and walking 39 over 127.1 innings. Throw in a microscopic 0.90 WHIP and a .169 batting average against, and there’s a lot to like.

Per John Sickels at Minor League Ball, Adams’ arsenal is equally exciting:

“…nasty fastball in mid/upper-90s, also a plus slider, has made progress with softer curveball and change-up; command has been solid thus far.”

He doesn’t have the frame typical of your starting pitcher, but he showed that it didn’t affect him last season. He has plenty of experience in the bullpen from his days in college. The Yankees will likely exhibit patience and make sure his 2016 breakout was for real. Should he continue to dominate as a starter, expect an arrival late in 2017.

The Sleepers

Brady Lail, RHP

The 2012 18th-rounder is heading to spring training. Lail was pretty impressive as he climbed up the minor league ladder, but he struggled as he reached the higher levels. He hasn’t posted a strikeout per nine higher than 5.65 since reaching Double-A. This hurts a bit when his walks per nine come in right around three.

Lail is primarily a finesse pitcher, with a fastball that usually hits the upper 80s more often than low 90s. He has good command of his curve, cutter and change up. Lail is better suited as a bullpen swingman, able to make a spot start when needed. Now 23 years old, you can expect his big league debut at some point in 2017.

More from Call to the Pen

Nestor Cortes, LHP

The 22-year-old, 2013 36th-round draft pick rose from obscurity for a breakout 2016. He climbed all four levels of the minor league ladder, making at least one appearance in Charleston, Tampa, Trenton and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Cortes was absolutely absurd in the South Atlantic League, racking up a 6-2 record behind a 0.79 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 68.1 innings. He doesn’t blow you away with his stuff, but he seems to know how to get the job done. Said Charleston skipper Luis Dorante before the SAL Playoffs:

“Cortes was really, really good,” Dorante said. “He’s a kid that just throws strikes. He doesn’t overpower guys, just goes out there and gives me everything to get people out and that’s his mentality. He told me that, ‘I go out there and just try to get them out, doesn’t matter if it’s a strikeout, ground ball or pop out or what’. A mentality like that — you don’t find them. Sometimes these guys that throw hard they want to strikeout everybody, and that’s not the case with him. He is amazing with all of his pitches and then the command of them.”

Next: Luis Severino Works on Mechanics

Cortes is a strike-thrower. He isn’t afraid to come after a batter in the zone, and he seems to win more often than not. That kind of moxie is invaluable and could earn Cortes a shot later in 2017.

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