MLB: AL West Preseason Division Predictions
The AL West may be the tightest division in baseball. Three teams are already favored to make the playoffs, and the other two could surprise.
It’s February, and the MLB offseason is almost behind us. Looking back at everything that has happened, it’s safe to say that the most noise of the offseason came in the AL West. The Angels, Athletics, and Rangers all made small, beneficial moves this offseason. The Angels acquired Danny Espinosa from the Nationals, Martin Maldonado from the Brewers, Cameron Maybin from the Tigers, and Luis Valbuena and Ben Revere via free agency. The A’s went after outfielders Matt Joyce and Rajai Davis while also signing closer Santiago Casilla. The Rangers lost Ian Desmond via free agency. However, they signed several veteran names, which will surely add depth to the team.
The Mariners and Astros, however, made the most offseason noise. Seattle improved on all aspects, acquiring catcher Carlos Ruiz and infielders Danny Valencia and Jean Segura. In the outfield, Seattle also acquired Jarrod Dyson from the Royals. Finally, the Mariners received pitching help in the form of Yovani Gallardo, Marc Rzepczynski, and Drew Smyly.
Meanwhile, the Astros also improved their offense in the form of catcher Brian McCann, and outfielders Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki, and Josh Reddick. Both teams have drastically improved in a short amount of time, and are set to battle it out for the division crown in 2017. Tough competition is expected from the Rangers while the A’s and Angels may also surprise. The AL West is going to be a tight division, regardless.
Here are the projected standings for the AL West in 2017:
Last Place: Oakland Athletics
Projected Record: 70-92
What a difference three years makes. As recently as 2014, the Oakland Athletics were competing in the AL Wild Card Game against the Kansas City Royals. Despite having leads, the Royals came back and defeated the A’s in extra innings. That was Oakland’s last appearance in a playoff game, and the A’s have looked like a completely different team since then. The A’s did improve their outfield by acquiring near World Series hero Rajai Davis and veteran Matt Joyce. However, their improvements will not be enough to help Oakland back to the postseason.
The A’s have an inconsistent pitching staff and a very weak infield. Sonny Gray, their ace, was injured last year, and he can only do so much. While the A’s bullpen does contain several veterans, including Casilla, Ryan Madson, John Axford, and Sean Doolittle, it just doesn’t look to be enough to drastically improve. Last year, the A’s finished with the second-worst batting average and ERA in the American League. With no changes to the starting rotation, expect those numbers to remain. While the A’s have surprised in the past, it does not appear they will surprise again in 2017.
Fourth Place: Los Angeles Angels
Projected Record: 77-85
The best player in baseball currently is Mike Trout. One of the greatest power hitters of all-time is Albert Pujols. One of the best fielding shortstops in MLB today is Andrelton Simmons. All three of these players are in the same lineup for the Los Angeles Angels. However, that may not be a good thing. While the Angels do have these three particular players, they do not have enough weapons in other areas to be able to contend. Yunel Escobar is streaky, and Ben Revere is coming off of an injury-plagued, inconsistent 2016 season. While Luis Valbuena can provide some pop and depth, he doesn’t provide much else.
The biggest weakness for the Angels going into 2017 is their pitching staff. Garrett Richards is still going to be recovering from injury, and his availability is not guaranteed. Ricky Nolasco‘s production has gone increasingly downhill, and Alex Meyer (who was also received in the Ricky Nolasco trade) has not been productive at all. The only Angel starter that managed to produce in 2016 was Matt Shoemaker, who produced a 3.88 ERA in 27 starts. Shoemaker has proven to be of value to the Angels in recent years. In 2014, he finished the season with a 3.04 ERA in 20 starts. However, all of the pressure is now on him as the ace of the team.
Third Place: Texas Rangers
Projected Record: 85-77
Last year, the Texas Rangers were destined for greatness. All of the hype paid off for the time being, as the Rangers finished with the best record in the American League, and home field throughout the playoffs. That unfortunately wouldn’t be needed, as the Rangers ran into the Blue Jays in the ALDS, who ousted Texas in three games. Once again, the Rangers made it to the playoffs and came up short, a theme for Texas over the past seven years. Now, the Rangers go into 2017 with more subtractions than additions, which makes their chances of winning the AL West look bleak.
The Rangers still possess an All-Star lineup which includes Adrian Beltre (2,942 career hits), Mike Napoli (career-high 34 home runs in 2016), Elvis Andrus (career-high .302 batting average in 2016), and Yu Darvish (812 strikeouts in 100 career starts). However, the Rangers have pitching weaknesses which hindered them last season. While the Rangers did get Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, who are coming off lost seasons, they did not do nearly enough to address the bullpen. The bullpen looks awfully similar to last season’s, which may become a negative factor going into 2017. While the Rangers do not appear ready for an AL West title, they are still in consideration for a Wild Card spot.
Second Place: Seattle Mariners
Projected Record: 90-72*
(Asterisk indicates a Wild Card team)
Two AL West teams received a nice boost this offseason and, as a result, they will likely battle it out for the top two spots in the division. The Seattle Mariners have not been in the playoffs since 2001, despite having a crop of talent which once included all-time great Ichiro Suzuki. Last season, the Mariners made a push for a MLB playoff berth, but came up short in their efforts. Surprisingly, Seattle finished in second place in the AL West, as the Astros were dealing with their own issues which led to them falling off. The Mariners just missed the playoffs during the final week of the season, but their winning record was promising. Following a successful offseason, the Mariners are now ready to make another push for the postseason.
The Mariners have a combination of speed, power, and pitching, and a combination of youth and experience. Seattle posseses a lineup led by Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, with new additions including Jarrod Dyson, Danny Valencia, Jean Segura, and Carlos Ruiz. Their pitching rotation is led by Felix Hernandez, who is a former Cy Young winner, and is still the ace of the team. New additions Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo should provide some relief to Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. Veteran presence in the bullpen should also help the Mariners, but one more big piece may be needed down the stretch. Mark the Mariners down as an AL Wild Card team.
First Place: Houston Astros
Projected Record: 92-70
The Houston Astros had a plethora of issues last season which led to them finishing in third place in the AL West. Their pitching rotation, especially 2015 AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, was inconsistent. Despite the inconsistencies, the Astros finished with the fifth-best ERA in the AL, and the second-best in the AL West. With Lance McCullers set to come back, the Astros rotation should be in full strength. Despite the inconsistencies in their hitting, the Astros do have Jose Altuve, and they addressed their weaknesses by signing some key names. Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Josh Reddick will all be in Houston this season, so the team’s offensive numbers may certainly increase.
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The Astros bullpen is a tad concerning. Last year, the Astros worked with three different closers, and all of them had inconsistencies. Ken Giles also endured his worst MLB season, as he saw his ERA balloon to a 4.11 from 1.80 (-0.2 WAR). Tony Sipp‘s ERA also spiked to 4.95 from 1.99 (-0.4 WAR). The bullpen was an issue last season, and it may take a last minute move or a deadline deal to fix that. Despite the down years from some of the starters and the lineup, the Astros are still relatively young. With some experience mixed in, the Astros are the favorites to win the AL West.