MLB: Four Teams That Won’t Meet Their Hype in 2017

Baltimore Orioles

The 2016 home run leading Baltimore Orioles opted to focus on adding more power this offseason. They re-signed slugger Mark Trumbo, and signed the power hitting Welington Castillo to take over behind the plate. While ensuring yet another explosive offense, Baltimore also ensured another mediocre starting staff.

The Orioles’ rotation is headlined by the recently arrived Kevin Gausman. Gausman dominated the 2016 season, however, his lone dominant year does not guarantee a dominant 2017. He likely won’t start opening day, but expectations are off the charts for Kevin Gausman entering 2017.

Chris Tillman will likely start opening day. The 28-year-old has been the model of consistency for Baltimore starting pitchers. Tillman has had only one season with an ERA over four in the past five years. He is also the Orioles’ top innings eater, having thrown over 170 innings in each season since 2013.  On the down side, Tillman gave up 19 home runs last season and walked 66 batters, tying 22nd for the most walks in MLB. He is one of the few pitchers in baseball that is comfortable working up in the strike zone. While effective at times, Tillman’s approach does allow for some long balls.

The highly touted Dylan Bundy will rank third in the Oriole rotation. Bundy is supremely talented and could stand as a make or break factor to the Baltimore Orioles’ 2017 chances. But he’ll have to improve significantly from his spotty 2016 campaign. Granted it was his first season back from Tommy John surgery, Bundy showed some vulnerabilities last season. He proved his wipeout stuff, striking out 104 batters in 109 innings. Additionally, his .257 BAA proved him difficult to hit. However, like his fellow starters, Bundy struggled with walks and keeping the ball in the ballpark. In the moderate sample of 109 innings, Dylan Bundy walked 42 batters and gave up 18 home runs.

Sticking with the theme, it doesn’t get any better in the back-end of the rotation (though it rarely does). Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez inflated the staff’s statistics. Miley gave up 25 home runs in 166 innings, while Jimenez gave up 16 in 142 innings. Miley allowed 49 free passes to Jimenez’s 72.

All together, the Orioles’ starters gave up the second most walks in the American League, and the fourth most runs. It’s no secret that Camden Yards is a hitter’s ballpark. Unfortunately, Baltimore does not have starting pitchers suitable for the ballpark in which the team plays 81 games.

2017 prediction

The Baltimore Orioles offense is outstanding. Likewise, they have an outstanding bullpen. The problem is getting to the bullpen. Baltimore’s starting pitching will be the team’s demise and will ultimately keep them from a playoff berth in 2017. Their division is very competitive and the Orioles simply do not have the pitching to keep them afloat.

Seattle Mariners

Speaking of competitive MLB divisions, the Seattle Mariners will partake in the most competitive division in MLB. Four of the five teams in the AL West have playoff potential. The Rangers and Astros will certainly be the most resistant to the Mariners’ playoff aspirations. Seattle will play each of those two teams 19 times in 2017.

Aside from the difficult schedule, the Mariners have some concerns within their own roster. They were one of the more active teams throughout the offseason. Some of their additions include Jean Segura, Drew Smyly, Yovani Gallardo, Danny Valencia, and Jarrod Dyson. Seattle’s busy offseason creates the illusion of an improved team.

Without question, the Mariners still possess perhaps the most lethal middle of the batting order in the MLB. Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager make up the daunting heart of the lineup. The Mariners wisely acquired an offensive shortstop to help expand their lineup. At the cost of Taijuan Walker, Seattle acquired shortstop Jean Segura from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Segura is coming off a career year in which he slashed .319/.368/.499 and posted over 200 hits. The Mariners have not had a quality shortstop for quite some time, therefore Segura is a tremendous signing and also an absolute key to his new team’s success.

Besides Segura, no other signing really stands out. Jarrod Dyson has incredible speed, but his primary tool does not make him worthy of a starting role. Dyson will likely be less impactful than Seattle’s 2016 left fielder, Franklin Gutierrez. First baseman Danny Valencia had an encouraging 2016 season. He’ll have to repeat 2016’s performance in order to justify the signing. Valencia will likely be just as productive as the split combination of Dae-Ho Lee and Adam Lind from last season. Ultimately, the offensive outlook for the upcoming season looks comparable to last year.

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The Seattle Mariners top three starting pitchers remain the same. King Felix, followed by Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton, all three should produce at a high level again this season. Their fourth and fifth rotation spots offer a different look. Drew Smyly will be the fourth starter. Smyly was an excitable signing for Seattle, though I’m not sure why. Smyly went 7-12 last season with the Tampa Bay Rays. He posted a 4.88 ERA and averaged under six innings per start. He also gave up a BABIP of .294. There is hope that he will perform well in a pitcher’s ballpark, however, he’ll have to prove that over time.

Yovani Gallardo is expected to be the number five starter. Gallardo is clearly past his prime. He had a terrible 2016 season in which he posted a 5.42 ERA and struck out only 85 hitters in 108 innings. He no longer has a his wipeout slider, nor his velocity. The Mariners will likely move on from Gallardo as a starter early in the season. Ariel Miranda may very well takeover. Miranda has great talent that deserves to be on display in the coming season.

2017 Prediction

The Seattle Mariners are a good team. I am not doubting their capabilities; they just don’t have enough to edge out the Texas Rangers or Houston Astros. Their team looks just as good as last year, and that showed to not be enough in 2016. The same will be true in 2017.

Colorado Rockies

Like the Mariners, the Colorado Rockies created some buzz this offseason. They started off by signing Ian Desmond to a 5-year deal, and closed out the offseason with the signing of closer Greg Holland. Time will tell if Desmond is worth the length and money, but the nearest outlook is promising for the Rockies. Desmond won’t be expected to carry a big load; he’ll more so try to blend into a juggernaut lineup.

The Greg Holland signing earns an A++ grade. Year after year the Rockies sport the league’s worst bullpen, including 2016 when their collective effort led to a 5.13 ERA. Holland won’t be the cure, but he’ll certainly alleviate the struggles to some degree. Remember, a closer makes their money in tight games in the late innings. This means Colorado’s starting staff and middle relief will have to keep the games close in order for Holland’s presence to truly matter.

The Rockies share comparisons to the Orioles. The Orioles have perhaps the American League’s top offense, while the Rockies have perhaps the National League’s best offense. Consequently, both teams are held back by their starting pitching.

Colorado’s starting pitchers contributed a 4.79 ERA last season, ranking third worst in the NL. Their ERA inflated significantly at home, increasing to 5.40. It’s no secret the Rockies play in the most hitter-friendly park in MLB. They do receive sympathy from outsiders, however, sympathy doesn’t play much of a role when it comes to results. The Rockies have a good thing going with their 2013 first round pick, Jon Gray. Gray’s power arm speaks for itself, and the rest of his repertoire will improve over time. Maybe the Tyler’s (Tyler Chatwood and Tyler Anderson) can follow-up their 2016 performances with impressive 2017s.

Bottom line, a team without a proven ace or an all-star arm stands very little chance to make a playoff push. The Rockies rotation is compiled of a bunch of three or four starters in accordance with the talent among the other MLB teams. Until they bring in a legitimate ace, Colorado will not be a playoff team, even with their absurdly good offense.

2017 Prediction

Against the belief of many Colorado Rocky fans, 2017 is not the year the Rockies make it back to the playoffs. Competition will be steep in the NL West, and there are too many teams that could make a push for the wildcard (i.e the Cardinals, Pirates, and Mets/Nationals). The Rockies are headed in the right direction, however they remain a few pieces away from immediate contention.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers cannot make the final leap to the World Series. They rule the regular season, but always falter in the postseason. Clayton Kershaw is suffering from the championship-less ailment which stunts every elite talent’s legacy. He finally pulled through with an outstanding postseason in 2016, but his singular efforts were not enough for his team to conquer the Cubs. Unfortunately, it may be too late for the Dodgers as the Cubs look to rule the National League for seasons to come.

It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers handle another tough playoff departure. They’re bringing back essentially the same team. The only notable move is the acquisition of second baseman Logan Forsythe. The 30-year-old is coming off a nice season with the Tampa Bay Rays and should be a nice compliment to the Dodger lineup. Los Angeles’ offense was very average in 2016. In fact, they finished in the middle of the pack in both runs scored and home runs in the MLB. Much of their slack was disguised by the success of Corey Seager and Justin Turner.

The team’s offense is dangerous. Not in the sense of powerful and intimidating, but streaky and unpredictable. They have two of the streakiest hitters in baseball in Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson. Both have tremendous upside, however each have times when they can’t hit themselves out of a wet paper bag. Add Yasmani Grandal and Logan Forsythe and there are four hitters in the Dodgers lineup that are very difficult to project.

Where will the power come from? Seager and Turner are the team’s most promising power hitters, each will likely post home run totals in the mid 20s. Yasiel Puig‘s power is phenomenal, but he has issues even with plate discipline. Adrian Gonzalez saw his lowest home run total since 2012 last season. At the age of 34, he can’t be expected to flex the biggest muscles in the batting order anymore. Overall, there are a number of concerns facing the Dodgers offense in the upcoming season.

Just as the offense looks very similar from last year, so does the pitching staff. Kershaw will be Kershaw in 2017; however, the rotation is difficult to predict beyond their ace. Rich Hill and Scott Kazmir continue to earn more miles on their aging arms. While velocity is not a major part of their games, the possibility exists that their effectiveness will drop off at least a little. From the veterans to the bloomers, expectations are high for Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias. Both pitched well in 2016, and I suspect they’ll perform well in 2017. Urias will certainly be one to watch.

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The pitching staff will have to carry the majority of the weight. They did last season; it appears the staff will be pressing even more throughout the upcoming season.

2017 Prediction

The Dodgers barely miss out on the playoffs in 2017. The St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets will beat them to the wildcard game. Thus, the Los Angeles Dodgers will massively disappoint.