MLB: Riskiest Free Agent Signings of the Offseason

Honorable Mentions

Rarely is it a good thing to not make “the list.” However, due to the nature of this particular list, this is one of those times.

Rich Hill

I was close to putting the Dodgers’ re-signing of Rich Hill on here, but came to the conclusion that L.A. doesn’t really care about spending another $48M over the next three years. He’s had a very limited run of success, pitching just 139.1 innings in the last two seasons. When he is on the mound, though, he’s been unhittable. Of all MLB starters to pitch 130+ innings since the start of 2015, Hill’s ERA of 2.00 is second only to Clayton Kershaw (1.96). As a result of the small number of innings, his 4.9 fWAR doesn’t even rank within the top 30 in that span. If he’s healthy, Hill is a top of the rotation starter. His poor health and spotty track record is why I considered him for this list. What saved him from inclusion is his reasonable $16M salary, combined with the Dodgers’ disregard for spending.

Mark Melancon

As I mentioned previously, big-money signings for relievers make me nervous. Until this year, the largest contract ever give to a reliever was Jonathan Papelbon‘s four-year, $50M deal with the Phillies. That was signed back in 2011, but the market has shifted drastically since then. This offseason alone, we’ve witnessed three relievers sign for more than $60M. Any sizable contract given to a reliever is risky, but one of these isn’t so bad.

In fact, the Giants’ signing of Mark Melancon may be one of the best MLB signings all winter. At four years and $62M, the Giants are only paying Melancon $3M/year more than the Phillies were paying Papelbon. Since 2013, Melancon has averaged nearly 2.0 fWAR per season. To put that into context, only Aroldis Chapman (9.7), Kenley Jansen (9.4), and Dellin Betances (8.5) have accumulated more wins than Melancon’s 7.9 as a reliever in that time. Melancon’s getting paid, but he’s worth it.