Chicago Cubs: Jake Arrieta Still Open to Extension, But Is It in the Cards?

Jake Arrieta remains willing to talk about a new deal, but are the Chicago Cubs likely to pay what it would take to keep him, whether now or next offseason?

Upon arriving at Chicago Cubs spring camp, pitcher Jake Arrieta may have received more attention for his new tattoo, the result of a losing College World Series bet with teammate Tommy La Stella. It wasn’t all fun and games, however. The right-hander also addressed his contract status and the possibility of signing an extension with the team before he hits free agency.

As Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times relates, Arrieta expressed his belief that his representatives and the Cubs would continue to discuss a new deal:

“There’s an open dialogue there. I think we will have talks. But it’s not my No. 1 priority. I just wanted to focus on my health and coming into camp as well rested and in as good of shape as I possibly can. That’s the position I’m in.“If we have those conversations we’ll sit down and hash some things out and see if we can get something worked out. If it happens, great. If not, I’ll continue to move forward and take it day by day and focus on being as good as I can.”

It’s a standard response from a player in his situation: I’d like to get something done, but right now I’m really just focused on the season. And it’s a fair position to take, to be sure. But while the Cubs and Arrieta might make some public overtures about an extension, there are more than a few reasons to believe that he will ultimately test the free agent market next November.

After last year’s agreement between the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg on a new deal, Arrieta said that he didn’t plan to give the Cubs a “hometown discount.” It’s doubtful things have changed over the last nine months. As Wittenmyer notes, agent Scott Boras has been using Max Scherzer as a comparison for Arrieta. In January of 2015, the Nats signed Scherzer to a mammoth seven-year, $210 million contract at age 30.

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Arrieta turns 31 in March, so he would begin the first season of any new deal at 32 years old. Even among the best pitchers, that’s around the age you start expecting some sort of decline. And indeed, while Arrieta turned in a strong showing in 2016, it wasn’t the Cy Young-winning campaign he enjoyed in 2015.

Last year the righty posted 18 wins, a 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 2.50 K/BB ratio over 197.1 innings. In the previous season’s incredible run, Arrieta racked up 22 victories with a minuscule 1.77 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 4.92 K/BB across a herculean 229 frames. He led all of baseball with four complete games and three shutouts.

That’s a once-in-a-lifetime season, and it seems unfair to expect Arrieta to replicate it. Some regression was likely always coming, and it’s certainly not as if he fell on his face in 2016. His opponents’ .241 BABIP was actually lower than the year before (.246), and some of his issues could be explained by a notable uptick in home runs (0.4 to 0.7 HR/9) and walks (1.9 to 3.5 BB/9) allowed. He also struggled with control at times, firing off an NL-high 16 wild pitches.

Arrieta could spin off five more seasons like the one he had last year and whichever team he’s on would likely be happy. The problem is, when you’re talking about a potential $200 million price tag, the distinction between a very good pitcher and an elite one becomes all the more important. Boras will try to convince a club to pay for that amazing 2015 Cy Young performance. Prospective buyers should instead think about what kind of pitcher Arrieta is likely to be over the next five to seven years.

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The Cubs would surely like to keep Arrieta around. While their current core of young stars doesn’t hit free agency for a while, it’s not too early to start thinking about the days when Kris Bryant and company will start to get a lot more expensive. If the numbers for Arrieta approach the Scherzer-esque neighborhood Boras is aiming for, then it’s probably safe to say the Cubs will tap out.