Comparing the MLB Top-100 Prospects Lists
The Top 20
There isn’t much disagreement at the very, very top. Andrew Benintendi is the #1 prospect on four of the six lists. Call to the Pen has Yoan Moncada ahead of Benintendi and Baseball Prospectus put SP Alex Reyes at the very top of their list, which is a shame with the recent news that he’ll miss this year with Tommy John surgery. Baseball Prospectus also has Dansby Swanson ahead of Benintendi. Hopefully, he won’t suffer the same fate as Reyes.
Speaking of Reyes, Keith Law is the low man on Reyes, putting him 10th. Law even has another pitcher higher on his list than Reyes—Michael Kopech, who was traded with Yoan Moncada by the Red Sox to the White Sox in the Chris Sale trade. Law has Kopech 7th on his list. Law is also lower on Yoan Moncada than the others, putting him 17th. No other list had him lower than 5th.
Cody Bellinger jumps off the page when looking at these lists. He’s ranked 6th by Keith Law and 7th by Baseball America, but 21st by Call to the Pen and 26th by Baseball Prospectus. Bellinger has hit for great power over the last two years. As a 19-year-old in 2015, he hit 30 home runs at Rancho Cucamonga in the California League (Advanced A ball). According to this article at MiLB.com, the California League has a very eclectic mix of ballparks when it comes to park effects.
Over the three-year period from 2014-2016, High Desert, Lancaster, Stockton and Bakersfield were very good parks for home runs, while Modesto, Lake Elsinore and Inland Empire were difficult home run parks. Bellinger’s home park in Rancho Cucamonga had a three-year park home run park factor of .856, meaning home runs were suppressed in his home park. Not surprisingly, Bellingher hit just eight of his 30 home runs at home in 2015.
Bellinger spent most of the 2016 season playing for Tulsa in the Double-A Texas League. The Tulsa home ballpark had a slightly favorable home run park factor of 1.166, but Bellinger hit 15 of his 26 home runs on the road. Overall, Bellinger has played four seasons in the minor league and has hit .267/.349/.494.
Another highly ranked player with some divergent rankings is Phillies shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford. He’s considered a top seven prospect by three sources (Baseball Prospectus #4, Keith Law #5, MLB.com #7) while being ranked 27th by John Sickels and 35th by Call to the Pen.
Crawford is close to the major leagues. He played in 87 games at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year but struggled with the bat, hitting .244/.328/.318. It’s important to remember that he was just 21 years old in Triple-A last year. Most 21-year-olds are playing in High-A. Crawford is still high on most lists because of his athleticism, his defense, and his ability to control the strike zone. His future is likely more near the bottom of the lineup than the top if he doesn’t show more with the bat.
Michael Kopech was mentioned above. He throws hot fire. Keith Law has him 7th, while Baseball America has him 32nd and Baseball Prospectus has him 36th. In a drill in the offseason in which players take a running start and have their throw clocked, Kopech hit 110 mph. Of course, unless your name is Carter Capps, you can’t take a running start (or two hops) when you pitch.
The final guy in this group of top 20 players is Nick Senzel, a third base prospect for the Reds. Baseball America is very high on Senzel, ranking him 9th. He also has three rankings in the 20s. The low man on Senzel is Call to the Pen’s Benjamin Chase, who has him ranked 50th. Senzel was just drafted by the Reds with the second overall pick last June. He hit .305/.398/.514 in 68 games in his first professional season after being a top all-around bat coming out of college. Chase likes Senzel to be a solid big league regular but maybe not an elite-level superstar.