MLB: Will Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta Solidify Top FA Starter Spot?
While MLB spring training just got underway, it’s never too early to start thinking about the questions of next offseason. One of the biggest will be the debate between impending free agent starters Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
This offseason’s free agent starter class left much to be desired, with no pitcher getting more than three years on a contract. However, next winter’s market will feature two of the more talented pitchers in MLB, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. But which pitcher has set themselves up to make more money?
At 30 years old, 31 in March, Arrieta has become one of the poster children for changes of scenery. Prior to joining the Chicago Cubs in the middle of the 2013 MLB regular season, the right-hander was nothing more than wasted potential with the Baltimore Orioles. However, since joining Theo Epstein in Chicago, Arrieta has been arguably one of the best hurlers in baseball.
He has pitched to an under 3.10 ERA for the past three years, averaging a strikeout per inning during that timespan. His FIP has stayed in lockstep with his successful earned run average and he’s been able to more effectively use all of his pitches, including his cutter, a pitch that he was influenced against throwing during his time in Baltimore.
His consistency, dominance and relative lack of mileage on his arm will make him an expensive player on the MLB free agent market.
On the other hand, Yu Darvish is no slouch himself. Although he’s hasn’t been as healthy as Arrieta in recent seasons, when healthy, the former Japanese League pitcher can be almost unhittable at times.
He averages a fastball that crosses home plate at almost 95 mph, according to FanGraphs. Darvish has also posted a career strikeout rate of 11.3 K/9 IP during his four seasons in Texas. And he’s done this without walking an overly high number of hitters too, which is rather impressive.
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He’s a physically imposing pitcher, listed at 6’5”, 220 lbs. All of these factors make him a typical front of the rotation starter.
Perhaps the only drawback to investing big money in him come next offseason is his injury history, which shouldn’t be neglected by prospective suitors.
He’s only made over 30 starts in one season since he joined MLB. In fact, he’s only started 17 contests in the past two years. This was mostly due to his recovery from Tommy John Surgery during 2015, but it should be noted that he dealt with constant arm problems this past year as well.
Still, Darvish is slightly younger than Arrieta and has never seemed to become figured out by MLB hitters. All he has to do is stay on the mound in 2017, and he’s going to get paid well come next offseason.
But the questions remains who stands to make more after this season is complete? At this point it looks like Arrieta is slightly favored by teams across the league, but this season could change a lot. Barring major injury for either pitcher, it’s reasonable to say that Darvish could surpass his Cubs counterpart when the dust settles.
Arrieta’s performance, while still very good, has been on a slight decline since his truly outstanding 2015 campaign. He’s got a little more tread on the tires and he doesn’t have as pure of great stuff as Darvish when looking at both of their pitching arsenals.
If Darvish shows up the way he did in 2012-2014, when he made the American League all-star team for three straight seasons, then a club needy of a true number one may throw around $175 million for him, as Stephen Strasburg got in 2016.
But, Arrieta still stands to earn more if he performs up to what he’s shown in the past. This would generally be because he has just been the more reliable pitcher, as he’s not had any serous injuries as of yet.
The race to be the top free agent starter in baseball is going to be one of the many underlying storylines to watch out for as we move closer towards opening day.
Next: Phillies Make-or-Break Candidates
Which pitcher do you think will end up signing for more money? Let us know in the comment section below.