Toronto Blue Jays: 2017 Team Preview
Is a third consecutive playoff appearance part of the Toronto Blue Jays future in 2017? A winter of discontent from Blue Jay fans hoping for a splashy move did not materialize and as it stands, more talent was lost than gained ahead of Spring Training. Let’s see how Toronto stacks up heading into the 2017 season.
After twenty-two seasons of playoff drought, the Toronto Blue Jays have advanced to the ALCS the last two seasons ultimately falling to better teams once they got there. The playoff appearance in 2015 was sparked by two monster trades made by former GM Alex Anthopolous to bring in David Price and Troy Tulowitzki before the late July trade deadline, not to mention the deal to bring in that season’s MVP Josh Donaldson to Toronto before the season started. In the offseason preceding the 2016 season, Anthopolous left and Toronto’s baseball operations were led by team president Mark Shapiro and his new general manager Ross Atkins, a Shapiro protégé brought over from Cleveland.
Last year’s playoff team had the finger prints of Anthopolous all over it but also faced daily questions about the impending free agency of two pillars of the team in Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, who were both considered to be on “team-friendly” deals. As we know, Bautista was resigned by Toronto late in this free agency period after not drawing much interest from other teams. Even other teams that needed a right-fielder, including a comment from Baltimore Orioles GM Dan Duquette, explaining that he couldn’t possibly sign Bautista who was a “villain in Baltimore”.
Edwin Encarnacion was offered a 4 year, $80 million dollar by Toronto at the beginning of free agency but declined it and the Jays moved in another direction and Encarnacion did as well signing a shorter deal with the team from Cleveland that knocked Toronto out of the playoffs. His addition to Cleveland’s lineup won’t do Toronto any favors trying to make the playoffs in the tightly packed second tier of teams fighting for a playoff spot in the American League.
In: DH Kendrys Morales; UTIL Steve Pearce; C Jarrod Saltalamacchia; RP J.P Howell; RP Joe Smith
After being eliminated by Cleveland in the ALCS, Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said that the team had an “all-or-nothing” offense and the team needed to have more balance (left-handed hitters) and speed. Despite best efforts from the front office to sign Dexter Fowler, not much was done to address the weaknesses pointed out by the manager at a vulnerable moment after the Jays’ post-season exit. Morales and Saltalamacchia are both switch hitters but this might not be the impact left-handed hitter the Jays need. Speed on the base paths will not be addressed by the half a stolen base Saltalamacchia averages per season or by Morales, whose most famous base-running occurred when he broke his leg being mobbed after a game-winning home run.
In Steve Pearce, the Jays get a player who knows the AL East well (Toronto is his fourth AL East team) and he can fill in at a number of positions. Pearce is decent at a number of things and could be best described as plug for a hole instead of a weapon for Gibbons to unleash.
Imported from the Los Angeles teams, former Dodger Howell immediately becomes the top left-handed option out of the bullpen and former Angel Smith and his side-armed slot will give Blue Jay opponents a different look on the mound in the late innings of games. These could be very shrewd signings from Shapiro and Co. to improve the bullpen and keep Toronto in the playoff race throughout the season.
Out: 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion; SP R.A. Dickey; C Josh Thole; C Dioner Navarro; OF Michael Saunders
Encarnacion is a huge loss for this team, especially since he is going to Cleveland for less than the Toronto Blue Jays originally offered him. His 3.7 WAR, 42 HR and 127 RBIs are going to have to be replaced by a collective of hitters raising their game as there is not a direct like-for-like replacement no matter how sturdy Kendrys Morales’ shoulders are for that weight of expectations.
Dickey’s move to Atlanta frees up two roster spots as Thole was the personal catcher for the knuckleballer. Dickey’s time in Toronto was productive but the cost of trading for him was Mets’ ace Noah Syndergaard and with hindsight being 20/20, there is not a GM now who would have made that trade. In an alternative universe where that trade didn’t happen, there is a three game series versus Boston where the starters featured are Syndergaard-Sanchez-Stroman versus Sale-Price-Porcello. Dickey will no longer remind the Blue Jay faithful of that possibility.
Navarro’s role would have been cloudy at best and the Saltalamacchia signing removes any possibility of Navarro coming back for a third time to the Blue Jays. Canadian outfielder Michael Saunders saw his production fall off a cliff in the second half of the season. Signing him for big dollars based on the first half of last season and his All-Star appearance is not something anyone would have expected from the Toronto front office and Saunders has taken his talents to Philadelphia where he will be asked to be a mentor to a young Phillie team.
While the rotation looks set, as do most of the jobs in the bullpen, projecting the Toronto Blue Jays lineup card has seen some wild variation among baseball experts. Assuming he can stay healthy, Devon Travis will hit lead-off (even though Jose Bautista has filled the role in the recent past) and play second base. The lineup’s back end looks set with the first base platoon of Justin Smoak and Steve Pearce batting seventh, defensive star Kevin Pillar batting eighth and the winner of the left-field job batting ninth. Batting second through sixth in the order looks to be a fluid situation as Spring Training gets underway.
Rotation
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP
- Marco Estrada, RHP
- J.A. Happ, LHP
- Marcus Stroman, RHP
- Francisco Liriano, LHP
Bullpen
Middle Relief: J.P. Howell, LHP; Aaron Loup, LHP; Joe Smith, RHP; Ryan Tepera, RHP
Long Relief: Joe Biagini, RHP; Glenn Sparkman, RHP
Set-up: Jason Grilli, RHP
Closer: Roberto Osuna, RHP
2017 Starting Lineup (best guess)
2B Devon Travis
RF Jose Bautista
3B Josh Donaldson
DH Kendrys Morales
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Justin Smoak / Steve Pearce
CF Kevin Pillar
LF B.J. “Melvin” Upton / Ezequiel Carrera
Predictions
Left a little uninspired by their Hot Stove, Toronto Blue Jays fans have spent a teeth-gnashing winter wondering if the offseason’s Plan C and Plan D being trotted out by the conservative front office would help them make the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
Vikings star Josh Donaldson is the second-best hitter in the AL and the CN Tower-sized chip on Jose Bautista’s shoulder after being ignored by twenty-nine other teams will continue to pace the offense. DH Morales and a healthy Travis should do a decent job patching the EE-sized hole in the lineup with runs coming from a healthy increase in on-base percentage instead of Encarnacion’s home runs.
The rotation which was one of the best in the AL last year is due for some regression but with Russell Martin behind the plate calling games, high-end production is still possible. This team will be in the thick of a wild card chase but any injuries to a front-line player and the Blue Jays will be chasing teams from the AL West for the two wild card spots in the American League.
2017 Record: 85-77
Division Rank: 2nd (to Boston)
Playoffs: No
Having just got in last year, the Toronto Blue Jays will fall just short in 2017. The only hopes are that the front office acquires a big bat with the available budget mid-season or that the AL West teams beat each other into submission and Toronto wins 27 of the 36 games against the Rays and those inexperienced Yankees to claw out a 90 win season. No one in the AL East has a shot at the division catching former manager John Farrell and the Boston Red Sox.