Tomorrow's Rookies for the Philadelphia Phillies

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Kingery Shows Off Some Leather To Go with His Solid Spring Hitting. Photo by Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports. /

With an eye on potential stars, each position except for third base has a candidate with a chance in the next two campaigns to play frequently at the Bank for the Philadelphia Phillies if general manager Matt Klentak green-lights a promotion.

The Fountain of Youth:

When a person is in the early stages of something significant, the degrees of ambition, energy, enthusiasm, effort, dedication and hope are at their highest levels.

As most professionals advance from rookie ball to the high minors, their odds to make the majors in any capacity for an extended time frame increase to 33 1/3 percent for Double-A and 50 percent at Triple-A. For instance, Aaron Altherr will have three consecutive months in the big leagues by late April, which is achieving the minimum for – in his case – a fifty-percenter.

This article covers the youngsters who will be the first to arrive and stick in the majors. And they are in reverse order of potential success. Will they all be more than a September call-up? Yes, then you wake up.

Starting his second summer with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, outfielder Nick Williams finished 2016 from July 30 to season’s end with a .164 average, 46 strikeouts and one walk. And unless he improves his plate discipline, he won’t even get that final month in Philly. Keep in mind, the difference between Double-A and Triple-A is the latter just doesn’t have a steady diet of fastballs: Hurlers trying to return to the Show mix their offerings, and some are finesse pitchers.

Behind Tommy Joseph on the depth chart at first base, Rhys Hoskins will be with Lehigh Valley for the first half, while Joseph will have those months to secure the corner infield job. Hoskins blasted 38 homers and drove in 116 RBI with a .943 OPS for the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils. That stated, he’ll face the same test Williams did in ’16 with more than just heaters to deal with. Ergo, he must be productive to earn an MLB shot if Joseph struggles.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “I remember I was a scared rookie, hitting .220 after the first three months of my baseball season, and doubting my ability.” – Carl “Yaz” Yastrzemski

Will the Philadelphia Phillies have a difficult decision sending second-sacker Scott Kingery to the minor leagues if he keeps hitting in Clearwater? Not this spring. He must prove he’s still a special player with Reading, but management won’t forget the hard-nosed second baseman they’ve seen so far.

Knapp Has a Real Shot To Make the Team This Year. Photo by Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports. /

Behind the plate, Andrew Knapp has earned the opportunity for the backup catching role. He is a .260 switch-hitter who can start at first base against the toughest right-handers and give Joseph a day off. And the front office also needs to open up the receiving slot with the IronPigs for Jorge Alfaro because a reserve spot with the Phillies will only hinder his growth.

Hitting:

Alfaro: 97 Gms., 435 PA, a .285 Avg., 15 HR, 67 RBI, a .783 OPS and 4.0 WARP.
Knapp: 107 Gms., 443 PA, a .266 Avg., 8 HR, 46 RBI, a .719 OPS and a 3.6 WARP.

Squatting behind home plate for Lehigh Valley, Alfaro will now be facing starters with good secondary pitches, and the receiver must earn another call-up with his overall performance. Yes, he struck out eight times in 17 plate appearances and saw manager Pete Mackanin cut his September playing time in half: The power hitter did not start a third of the games the skipper originally had in mind. In other words, he needs a big March to improve his status.

While the locals enjoyed a beautiful, comfortable day, the sounds of spring baseball reverberated from right field to the visitor’s dugout. A vendor hawked his adult beverages by chanting, “beer, ba, beer, beer, beer.” And after job-seeking competitors completed their batting rituals, Alfaro banged two doubles to Knapp’s one.

Yes, no sooner did Alfaro clout his rally-starting two-bagger to right field than Knapp drove his RBI double to left field: two opposite-field knocks. One inning and six runs later, Alfaro pulled a second two-bagger. Yet, while fans perceived a competition for an opening, Knapp hit left-handed and replaced Joseph at first base.

Power-Hitter Cozens Uses His Legs To Swipe a Bag. Photo by Jonathan Dyer – USA TODAY Sports. /

Hoskins:

Home: 70 Gms., 250 AB, a .292 Avg., 25 HR, 65 RBI and a 1.032 OPS.
Away: 65 Gms., 248 AB, a .270 Avg., 13 HR, 51 RBI and an .853 OPS.

Cozens:

Home: 68 Gms., 258 AB, a .295 Avg., 29 HR, 83 RBI and a 1.118 OPS.
Away: 66 Gms., 263 AB, a .259 Avg., 11 HR, 42 RBI and a .766 OPS.

When it comes to right fielder Dylan Cozens, the home stats take on more importance because it could have been due to a hitter-friendly ballpark. However, it might have been a cheering crowd urging him to produce. Or his friendly competition with Hoskins was the reason, which could mean that trend will continue in Allentown against better pitching. That said, the corner outfielder and left-side hitter only has to replace a stopgap in July.

If outfielder Roman Quinn has a healthy campaign, he will be the first outfielder promoted. And remember, he would have been a starter in April if he had been injury-free in 2016. After July, however, the Phillies could have two outfield openings, and the speed merchant will bat first or second after his call-up.

Crawford Polishes His Defense Before an Exhibition Game. Photo by Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports. /

According to Jim Sannes of NumberFire, first-round draft picks out of high school have a 58 percent chance of reaching the major leagues. And the red pinstripes have three in the pipeline: shortstop J.P. Crawford, outfielder Cornelius Randolph and outfielder Mickey Moniak. Also keep in mind, it takes five seasons for them to work their way to the parent club and two more 162s to make an impact. And while Randolph’s next step is with the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers, Moniak is ready for Low Single-A ball. On the other hand, some locals are wondering why Crawford isn’t here already, but players view things differently.

IN OTHER WORDS: “You don’t come up expecting to be a fan favorite. When I was a rookie, I was just trying to make a name for myself, but people already knew who I was and already had expectations for me.” – Tim “The Freak” Lincecum

While Moniak is at the half-year mark and Randolph arrived the summer prior, Crawford will be with the IronPigs on Opening Day. He will improve his plate discipline after three months in Allentown to his Double-A level, but Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez could decide Crawford’s advancement with their statistics and value. How far is Crawford on that seven-season timeline? Three and a half years.

Hoskins Will Be One Level Away If Joseph Has Any Difficulties. Photo by Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Quinn, almost 24:

MLB: 15 Gms., 69 PA, a .263 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .333 SLG, a .070 ISO, a .395 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .706 OPS, a 0.4 fWAR, 5 SB, 1 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
Double-A: 71 Gms., 322 PA, a .287 Avg., a .361 OBP, a .441 SLG, a .154 ISO, a .357 BABIP, 6 HR, 25 RBI, an .802 OPS, a 2.3 WARP, 31 SB, 8 CS and a 9.2 Spd.

Crawford, 22:

Triple-A: 87 Gms., 385 PA, a .244 Avg., a .328 OBP, a .318 SLG, a .074 ISO, a .284 BABIP, 4 HR, 30 RBI, a .647 OPS and a 0.8 WARP.
Double-A: 36 Gms., 166 PA, a .265 Avg., a .398 OBP, a .390 SLG, a .125 ISO, a .295 BABIP, 5 HR, 34 RBI, a .787 OPS and a 1.9 WARP.

Alfaro, 23.5:

MLB: 6 Gms., 17 PA, a .125 Avg., a .176 OBP, a .125 SLG, a .000 ISO, a .250 BABIP, 0 HR, 0 RBI, a .301 OPS and a -0.2 fWAR.
Double-A: 97 Gms., 435 PA, a .285 Avg., a .325 OBP, a .458 SLG, a .173 ISO, a .347 BABIP, 15 HR, 67 RBI, a .783 OPS and a 4.0 WARP.

Kingery, 22.5:

Double-A: 37 Gms., 166 PA, a .250 Avg., a .273 OBP, a .333 SLG, a .083 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 2 HR, 18 RBI, a .606 OPS, -0.2 WARP, 4 SB, 2 CS and a 4.0 Spd.
Single-A+: 94 Gms., 420 PA, a .293 Avg., a .360 OBP, a .411 SLG, a .117 ISO, a .334 BABIP, 3 HR, 28 RBI, a .770 OPS, a 3.5 WARP, 26 SB, 5 CS and a 7.0 Spd.

Triple-A Hitting:

Knapp, 25: 107 Gms., 443 PA, a .266 Avg., a .330 OBP, a .390 SLG, a .124 ISO, a .343 BABIP, 8 HR, 46 RBI, a .719 OPS and a 3.6 WARP.
Williams, 23.5: 125 Gms., 527 PA, a .258 Avg., a .287 OBP, a .427 SLG, a .169 ISO, a .325 BABIP, 13 HR, 64 RBI, a .714 OPS and 1.4 WARP.

Double-A Hitting:

Cozens, 22: 134 Gms., 586 PA, a .276 Avg., a .350 OBP, a .591 SLG, a .315 ISO, a .348 BABIP, 40 HR, 125 RBI, a .941 OPS and a 4.6 WARP.
Hoskins, almost 24: 135 Gms., 589 PA, a .281 Avg., a .377 OBP, a .566 SLG, a .285 ISO, a .297 BABIP, 38 HR, 116 RBI, a .943 OPS and a 4.1 WARP.

Single-A Hitting:

Randolph, 19.5: 63 Gms., 276 PA, a .274 Avg., a .355 OBP, a .357 SLG, a .083 ISO, a .346 BABIP, 2 HR, 27 RBI, a .712 OPS and a 1.7 WARP.

Next: Phillies’ Make-or-Break Candidates

Rookie Ball:

Moniak, 19: 46 Gms., 194 PA, a .284 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .409 SLG, a .125 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 1 HR, 28 RBI, a .749 OPS, a 1.3 WARP, 10 SB, 4 CS and a 7.9 Spd.

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