Feb 28, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Washington Nationals manager Dusty Baker (12) stands with his team prior to the game against the Houston Astros at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Nationals outfielder Victor Robles was the “pop up” prospect of 2015 and followed up with a thoroughly impressive 2016. Could he push for a major league debut in 2017?
Player Profile
The Washington Nationals signed Victor Enrique (Brito) Robles out of the Dominican Republic in July of 2013 for “just” $225,000.
Robles opened where most lightly-regarded international prospects open, which is the Dominican Summer League, in 2014. He showed very quickly that he was more than his bonus may have indicated, hitting .313/.408/.484 with three home runs and 22 stolen bases, posting a 7.51 percent walk rate and 12.21 percent strikeout rate.
Robles moved up to the Nationals Gulf Coast League affiliate to open 2015, and after completely dominating the GCL, he was promoted to the New York-Penn League to finish out the season.
He combined to hit .352/.445/.507 with four home runs and 24 stolen bases, posting a 6.9 percent walk rate and 12.64 percent strikeout rate.
That impressive performance caught the eye of many evaluators, and he shot up prospect lists. He was ranked #33 overall by Baseball America, #63 by MLB Pipeline and #29 by Baseball Prospectus.
Robles opened 2016 with low-A Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League. At roughly the halfway point of the season, he was promoted to high-A Potomac in the Carolina League.
Including a five-game rehab appearance with the Nationals’ GCL team after an injury in late July, Robles totaled a .280/.376/.423 line with nine home runs and 37 stolen bases. He posted a 6.35 percent walk rate and 15.28 percent strikeout rate.
After that solid performance, he also had a solid showing in the national rankings, finishing #13 with MLB Pipeline, #13 by Baseball America and #7 by Baseball Prospectus.
I had Robles #7 in my top 125 here at Call to the Pen in early January.
Next: Robles' scouting report
Scouting Report
Size/Build
Robles has a listed height/weight of 6′ even and 185 pounds. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s even an inch taller than that, but the 185 pounds even looks a bit heavy as he is built quite lean.
In that build, however, Robles has impressive musculature in his arms, and reports from spring training this year talk about his muscular legs as well.
Hitting
Contact (65) – Robles has tremendous right-handed contact ability, showing a quick swing through the zone, but unlike a lot of players who have a quick, compact swing, he also generates explosion on impact with the ball.
Robles really does well generating drives around the field, not focusing his hard-hit balls just to the pull side, but spraying them around the field.
Power (50) – While he gets definite explosion off of the bat in his powerful, short swing, Robles seems to have to alter his swing in batting practice to truly generate the type of power that puts balls over the fence.
His natural swing drives the ball well on a line, which will lead to plenty of extra bases, especially with his speed, but I think for Robles, without an alteration to his swing path, he’s likely more of a 15-20 home run projection.
Eye (55) – While he does a tremendous job of putting bat to ball, and that shows excellent hand-eye coordination, Robles showed struggles with zone recognition.
I am impressed with Robles’ pitch recognition as he is able to put bat to ball on all sorts of breaking stuff, but he struggles to lay off those pitches when they’re outside of the zone.
With added selectivity, he could allow his power to play up some as well.
Base Running/Fielding
Speed (70) – Robles is a true plus-plus runner. He is exceptionally quick, getting to a high speed in a matter of just a step or two.
He also has another gear that goes from a plus runner to that true plus-plus grade, and if you want to get an idea on how elite that speed is, realize that on the play in the video above, Robles rounded third and threatened home on a fairly quickly-handled play by the center fielder on the triple in the video.
Defense (60) – Robles utilizes his elite speed to allow him to truly play a solid defense. He also has a very good feel for the game, allowing him to position himself well for the ball, but he does seem to get awkward jumps on balls in the viewings I’ve had of him.
I will say that I’ve heard reports and talked with those who rave about his first-step movements in the outfield, so others may have seen different with Robles, but my roughly dozen viewings of Robles left me thinking his baseball acumen will allow him to handle center along with his speed, in spite of what I viewed as just average initial reads off the bat in the outfield.
Arm (60) – Robles certainly possesses a powerful arm, and he improved his accuracy with his arm in the last season. That was the biggest thing I saw that needed work in his arm that kept me from tagging a 65, as he’s just short of a plus-plus arm.
MLB Player Comp
In viewing quite a bit of Robles, it’s hard for me to think of a perfect outfield comparison, but immediately Jean Segura jumped to my mind.
Segura came up with the Brewers with nowhere near the pedigree or hype that Robles will carry (his highest prospect ranking was #35 overall), but at the same time, he was the key piece the Brewers acquired when trading away their ace, Zack Greinke, so he was held in fairly high esteem before he came to the majors.
Segura is also a guy who may have less than desirable traits at his primary position, as he was essentially rumored to be moving off of shortstop to second base from the time he was in minor leagues.
He’s used his excellent baseball instincts to play nearly 80 percent of his games at shortstop without once posting a negative dWAR on Baseball Reference and having a career defensive runs saved of 11.1 over his career.
Using his strong baseball acumen has allowed him to remain at a premium defensive position throughout his career while offering offensive value as well.
Where I really see the connection between the two is not necessarily in their physical build at the plate, but in Segura’s and Robles’ offensive skill sets.
Both rely heavily on their speed to generate excellent BABIP numbers when they are at their best, and they both can put on impressive batting practice displays. Segura hit 20 home runs last season with the Diamondbacks, but that could end up being a career high, as I’d expect his career expectations are 15-20, much like I see in Robles without a major swing change.
Robles showed very well in low-A and high-A in 2016. It’s very feasible he opens in AA in 2017, and he won’t turn 20 years old until a month into the season.
With a similar performance, he could move forward to AAA in 2017 by the end of the season and even sniff a major league debut in September when rosters expand, which would be incredibly impressive.
