Feb 16, 2017; Glendale, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) and teammates run drills during a Spring Training practice at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Yadier Alvarez made a big impression on the Los Angeles Dodgers and all of baseball in his first professional season. What does the future hold?
Player Profile
The Los Angeles Dodgers signed Yadier (Ventosa) Alvarez as part of their big July 2015 international free agent spending spree. Alvarez received $16M as a signing bonus, the largest bonus of the 2015 period and second-largest ever given to an international amateur, behind only Yoan Moncada‘s $31.5M bonus.
It really was hard to argue with either. Alvarez had a present 97 MPH fastball that sat in the mid-90s and a wicked slider. However, in the only experience he had in a major Cuban league, he posted a 4.94 ERA and walked more than he struck out in an 18U league, not Serie Nacional.
The Dodgers took the risk, and they opened Alvarez with their Arizona Rookie League team to begin 2016, but within a month he’d shown enough to skip straight to low-A Great Lakes in the Midwest League.
Combined, Alvarez posted a 2.12 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 14 starts and 59 1/3 innings. He also posted an 8.75 percent walk rate and a 33.75 percent strikeout rate.
Great Lakes made a run into the playoffs, and while Alvarez was nearing his innings limit on the season, he still made three brilliant starts in the playoffs, throwing 12 innings with a 2.25 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and a 4/11 BB/K ratio.
Alvarez’s first season in the minor leagues has not gone unnoticed, either. Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as the #23 prospect in all of baseball, MLB Pipeline had him #49 and Baseball America ranked him #26.
I had him ranked #8 in my top 125 that was put out in early January on Call to the Pen on the strength of personal viewings and scouting reports from sources in the industry that absolutely raved about him.
Next: Alvarez's scouting report
Scouting Report
Size/Delivery/Control
Size – Alvarez is listed at 6’3″ and 175 pounds. He is certainly long and lanky on the mound, and I would not doubt that listing.
Delivery – Alvarez has a simple delivery where he starts on the first base side of the rubber, steps back toward first base and then takes a leg lift and turns his left hip away from the plate to some degree.
This turn helps him to generate power in his delivery, as he comes from this peak point of his delivery downhill with good plane, releasing from a 3/4 delivery point.
Alvarez throws like a guy who added five inches of height all at once and is still working to gather himself to some degree with his long arms and legs that came from that.
This could absolutely be the case as little is known about Alvarez’s build prior to being a “pop up” prospect before the 2015 signing period, so a size increase could have certainly helped to produce the velocity spike that led to him being a draw to major league teams.
Those long arms and legs not quite being 100 percent under his control just yet led to his arm being in awkward positions in his delivery at times and having to rush through in order to get to the release point as his lead foot came down, often leading to inconsistent arm action.
Early in the season, Alvarez had issues with inconsistencies in his landing spot with his lead leg, but this was cleaned up when I watched starts late in the season and video from instructionals with him.
Control (50) – This is the one grade that has the most difference between what grade I’ll assign and the grade that I think Alvarez could eventually achieve.
Alvarez in July was probably a 40-45 control. At the end of the season, it was more a 50-55. However, I think as he works into his body and continues to receive pro instruction, based on the strides he made in a short time this year, he could be a guy with plus command and control.
Pitches
Fastball (75) – Alvarez has a fastball that now sits 94-97 and touches triple digits with fairly frequent regularity, but that’s not what keyed the extra +5 on this grade over a typical guy that can touch 100.
What makes the fastball so effective is two-fold. First, that he throws with such ease that the velocity he creates is incredibly deceptive to the batter.
Second, he gets excellent plane on the ball from his long arms coming from an extended-arm 3/4 delivery with some very good arm side run, which generates either weak contact or swing-and-miss.
Change Up (55) – When he can keep his arm in pace with the rest of his body, Alvarez has a legit plus change with excellent sink to the pitch that will work very well.
His delivery consistency will most affect the change as he flashes a 65 change when he’s in line in his delivery, but when he’s off, it’s as rough as a sub-50 pitch, though the movement on the pitch makes it playable regardless to some degree.
Slider (65) – Alvarez came over to the U.S. having gone from sitting 91-94 and touching 97 with his fastball to sitting 94-97 and touching 100.
When he was doing his showcases in the Dominican Republic, the slider was the pitch that everyone noticed. He can throw it both as a hard, sharp pitch with extra velocity or take a tick off and have it act as more of a wipe-out pitch.
His added arm strength in professional instruction added incredible velocity and bite to his slider, and I was tempted to throw a pure 70 on the pitch, but right now, Alvarez does have some work to do to control and command the pitch with the change in break he got.
I saw readings as high as 92 on the slider, but the pitch typically sat in the 86-88 range, which is still fairly elite velocity for a slider. His wipe-out variety worked more like 81-82.
Curve Ball (60) – Alvarez added a curve with professional instruction this season. The curve is a pitch that still needs some work for sure, but being able to have a pitch with more loop really gets hitters flailing.
He throws the pitch with a 12-6 break, and while he doesn’t have a huge looping break to the pitch, he does get some solid loop ahead of the plate and good two-plane break on the pitch when it’s working at its best, sitting 78-82 in velocity.
MLB Player Comp
Alvarez will have to fill into his frame further, but he and Carlos Carrasco have similar long arms and legs on a 6’3″ frame.
They also have a similar pitch mix as well, though Carrasco enters 2017 at 30 years old having only made 30 starts in one season and never throwing 200 innings.
Some will point to that as the risk with Alvarez, though their deliveries are not exactly similar, which leaves me much less worried about Alvarez’s injury risk than Carrasco’s, though in any pitcher there is injury inherent with the duty of throwing the ball 100 times every five days.
Where I do draw the comparison comes from my experience following Carrasco as a prospect for years and watching him retool his delivery before surgery in 2012 in order to be more repeatable and hone his long levers better.
Alvarez has some work to do in order to do the same, but the final product could surpass Carrasco if he can harness it.
Alvarez will likely open 2017 in the California League and high-A, but at 21 years old already, due to signing at 19 years old, it would not surprise if the Dodgers are somewhat aggressive with his promotions.
This could put Alvarez on track to be in the major leagues at some point in 2018, a very quick return on an investment in the 2015 international market, something most teams who signed a player in that season won’t see until likely 2020 or beyond!
