Milwaukee Brewers 2017 Team Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers finished the 2016 season at 73-89, but have some pieces that could lead to another year of improvement, and before long, playoff aspirations.
Any team that is in the same division as the Chicago Cubs right now is a long-shot to win the NL Central, but for the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers that hope is a pipe dream as they continue to rebuild their rosters in hopes of a brighter future.
For their part, the Brewers have done an excellent job of acquiring talent in recent years, starting with the addition of one of GM David Stearns’ former players in Houston, Jonathan Villar. A 25 year old Villar received the most consistent playing time of his young career, and he took off with his new team, batting .285 with a .369 OBP, 19 homers and 62 stolen bases. Not bad for a player that it took a minor league pitcher outside of the top prospects to acquire.
Another of their former Astros additions, Chris Carter, led the National League in home runs along with Colorado’s Nolan Arenado.
The big move that the Brewers made was in trading away Jonathan Lucroy to the Texas Rangers at the deadline that netted Milwaukee their 1st, 3rd and 18th ranked prospects (per Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook). They also added number eight prospect Phil Bickford and catcher Andrew Susac in exchange for reliever Will Smith.
Add up those additions to the arrival of former top prospect Orlando Arcia as the team’s everyday shortstop, and the Brewers did a lot to prepare for better days last year. This season we should see a couple more highly touted prospects make their own debuts, which should start setting up the competitive Brewers teams of the future.
Easily the biggest addition for the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason has been Eric Thames, who has been using the Korean Baseball Organization as his own personal launching pad over the last three years. Thames last appeared in Major League Baseball in 2012 with the Blue Jays and Mariners, but in his time since has put up home run totals of 37, 47 and 40 the past three seasons.
In addition to the power numbers, Thames has some speed that should help with the Brewers’ league-leading 181 stolen bases as a club. His walk and strikeout totals, while not exactly even, haven’t been too far apart the past two seasons, either. In 2015 he had more walks at 103 to 91 and last season the strikeouts outnumbered the walks 103 to 74. As a replacement for Chris Carter, who was DFA’d by the club, Thames presents some definite upside–if he can come close to those power numbers and possess the same eye at the plate.
The rest of the additions that the Brew Crew made aren’t as splashy, but could end up being solid contributors in one form or another. By trading away Tyler Thornburg to the Red Sox, Milwaukee brought back Travis Shaw and their number 11 and 18 prospects (BA) in Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington. Shaw should get a look at third base this season, but will be in competition with utility man Hernan Perez, who had a solid season in 2016.
The final trade of the offseason came with the Los Angeles Angels, with catcher Martin Maldonado and minor leaguer Drew Gagnon headed to Anaheim in exchange for catcher Jett Bandy. Bandy, Susac and Manny Pina will all be in competition for the starting backstop job this spring.
Other additions this winter include former Nationals, A’s and Twins left-hander Tommy Milone, who should be an average depth option for the club in the rotation, everyone’s favorite mosquito attractor Joba Chamberlain to a minor league deal, and utility infielder with a solid glove Ehire Adrianza, formerly of the Giants.
At first glance, the biggest subtraction this winter was Chris Carter. He displayed a ton of power with the club last season and played an adequate first base. But after seeing how power hitters were treated on the open market this offseason, along with some of the potentially added attributes that Eric Thames brings as a replacement at first base, Carter may not be the main piece that the Brewers have moved on from.
Instead, that designation may go to Tyler Thornburg, who really broke out with the club last season. He was their most valuable reliever and third-most valuable pitcher behind rookies Junior Guerra and Zach Davies. Stearns decided to follow the same path as Phillies GM Matt Klentak in trading away a reliever coming off of a hot season in order to land pieces that could help the club later on. Given that last season was arguably Thornburg’s best, it’s a smart move to trade him away and get a nice haul for him when they did, instead of seeing if he can repeat that same success in 2017 for a rebuilding team.
Aside from the aforementioned Maldonado, the only other players that won’t be with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2017 are Will Middlebrooks and Blaine Boyer, who signed with the Rangers and Braves as free agents.
The Brewers are likely at least one more season away from vaulting into the playoff conversation, so 2017 will be more about looking for the players that will be a part of that next push than how many wins are tallied. Zach Davies should be one of those big pieces in the future, but arms on the farm like Josh Hader (#2) and potentially Luis Ortiz (#3) and Brandon Woodruff (#7), could see their big league debuts at points throughout the season.
The further development of Isan Diaz, who had 20 homers as a shortstop/second baseman in Lo-A, and getting him up another rung or two on the ladder would also be a big step in the right direction.
As for the big league club, seeing development from Arcia at short, whether or not Keon Broxton can continue his late season surge over an entire season, and finally getting some resolution on the Ryan Braun trade talks are all going to be big storylines as the season starts, progresses, and ends.
Another intriguing storyline will be regarding the organization’s stolen base philosophy. The mantra appeared to be run early, run often last season, which led to a MLB-high 181 swiped bases. They also led baseball in times caught stealing with 56, which works out to a 76.4% success rate, and that’s pretty close to the break-even marker of 75% that most agree is the rate that you have to be successful in order to make stealing bases worthwhile. Could more selectivity could be on the way?
Next: What to Expect From Broxton in 2017
Prediction: The Brewers end the season 78-84, a five win improvement over their 2016 season that should feel like a whole lot more considering some of the competition they have to face in the NL Central. 2017 will be another year of development, but 2018 should be when we start seeing the next wave of talent bloom at the big league level and show signs of competing for a wild card spot in what will only become a more competitive National League as the rebuilding teams start getting their minor league reinforcements.