Money-Year Phillies

Because performance and the market determine finances, players looking for more than a one-season contract must impress general managers like Matt Klentak of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Currency Crossroads: 

Some occupations depending on accomplishments do not have value-oriented dollars; they rely on negotiations for their compensation.

When 2017 ends, GMs will bargain with two types of free agents. The first is the aging veteran with compiled stats for his next contract, while the other wants a multi-campaign agreement. On the Phillies, however, four athletes could earn three-year deals if they record solid numbers.

In the second season of a two-year contract, Pat Neshek must have a solid four months to attract contenders in July and a strong finish to draw interest for another two-campaign signing. He has enjoyed good numbers for the last five summers and good health for the most recent three. However, one rub to a two-year deal is his age: 36.

In the front office’s view, they will only be guaranteeing one season or will ink another battle-tested reliever. Money-wise, Neshek is making $6.5 million to Joaquin Benoit‘s $7.5 million, but neither will field a QO (qualifying offer). And Klentak calculates a fifty-fifty chance of success with two signings, which means one will be a solid roster addition. But two things to consider are why Klentak acquired them and who – maybe, Sean Burnett – can replace them?

Because Benoit is nearing 40, contract opportunities for more than a single 162 are remote. Another Methuselah? Lately, some pitchers seem to be defying the “calendar.” That stated, he’s had seven consecutive summers of durability and productivity.

From Frenchy’s Tiki Pavillion, your eyes take in the lush grass and the crowd: new customers, retirees and regulars. And you feel the hope for a winning 2017 despite the windblown fly balls. And while some players get their running in, hurlers fire fastballs in the bullpen that pop a catcher’s mitt. During the game, however, every pitch counts for hopefuls – like Burnett – who have a shot to make the 25-man roster.

As you sip your cold brew at a table near the bar, you wonder about the short-term setbacks for right-handers Jake Thompson and Zach Eflin: One or both could be in the Phils’ rotation in July. You know both will probably open ’17 on the disabled list for a week or two because they’re behind the other starters. And while Thompson’s wrist is improving, Eflin’s knees are gradually recovering from the strain of spring training activity. Yes, both are facing live batters, which means an additional 10 days in 2017 before joining the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Fighting his way back to respectability, Jeremy Hellickson has thrived as the head of the staff: A role he relishes. In fact, the responsibility has made him improve his craft because he can’t take the shellings and have the respect of the youngsters. But if he has the stability he did in 2016, he won’t have a QO to hamper him on the open market. He might even receive multi-campaign offers of $17 million annually.

Pitching for 2015:

• Hellickson: 27 Gms., 146 Inn., 9-12, a 4.62 ERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
• Morton: 23 Gms., 129 Inn., 9-9, a 4.81 ERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.

Pitching for 2016:

• Hellickson, 23 Gms., 189 Inn., 12-10, a 3.71 ERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.

According to Klentak, he expects 50 percent of his salary-dump acquisitions and free agent signings to bear fruit. But below-average performance was not the reason for Charlie Morton‘s half of that equation: He had an injury.

When a hit or two can rattle the bat rack, adding two experienced starters to the lineup provides the example new hitting coach Matt Stairs preaches about. Don’t give away at-bats! Ergo, Howie Kendrick is already doing for Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph what Hellickson did for the rotation. Keep in mind, Kendrick is in the final 12 months of his contract, and a .290 average will show he can still pick a team from a handful of suitors.

IN OTHER WORDS:     “It’s a pretty sure thing that the player’s bat is what speaks loudest when it’s contract time, but there are moments when the glove has the last word.” – Brooks Robinson

From management’s perspective, Kendrick, a right-side batter, is easier to replace than left-handed Michael Saunders. And even though the finances are not an issue, Kendrick earns $10 million to Saunder’s $8 million, but Klentak won’t lose Saunders to free agency if the right fielder has a banner campaign. How is that possible? A club option. Yes, $10.5 million for 2018.

According to the Condor himself in a recent TV interview, Saunders claimed fatigue was the reason for his poor second half, and statistics favor his belief. In 2014, he had 286 at-bats and the following year he had only 61 ABs. In other words, he went downhill after 305 at-bats last summer, which means his body was not able to endure 490 ABs. But his stats for the first half were excellent: 305 AB, .298, 16 HR, 42 RBI and a .923 OPS. Basically, he’s more than 23 months removed from returning to action, and he’s reestablished his stamina. Ergo, the Condor!

The Saunders signing contained Klentak’s hidden gem: The club option for the GM gives Dylan Cozens two seasons to be the right fielder due to Triple-A struggles or injury. And if the decision-maker is comfortable with promoting Cozens in July or September, Saunders could be a trade piece or a possible candidate for a QO. In other words, Klentak has protection for 2018’s lineup and increased value for a swap.

In today’s market, a GM will sign a free agent coming off a career year and will offer a long-term deal because of a smaller talent pool. Remember, the number of jobs nearly doubled from the 16 teams to the 30 now: 400 roster slots to 750. Ergo, the players with the elite quality of a 95-mph fastball, power or speed must go to the forefront, but less-gifted athletes and finesse pitchers have opportunities too.

Despite difficulty repeating his mechanics and staying healthy, Clay Buchholz is a change-of-scenery gamble who could cause Klentak many sleepless nights even with success. The right-hander has every reason for one of his best 162s including perhaps a final contract of $20 million per campaign for three to five summers. Currently, Buchholz is pitching out of the stretch to minimize his arm-slot inconsistencies, like his last starts in ’16.

Buchholz:

• 2013: 16 Gms., 108 1/3 Inn., 12-1, a 1.74 ERA, a 1.6 fWAR and a 1.02 WHIP.
• 2015: 18 Gms., 113 1/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.26 ERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
• 2016: last 7 Gms., 34 1/3 Inn., 2-1 and a 2.36 ERA .

FOOD FOR THOUGHT:   “I wish to be cremated. One tenth of my ashes shall be given to my agent, as written in our contract.” – Groucho Marx

When July 31 approaches, the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies won’t have much difficulty deciding when it comes to Neshek, Benoit, Kendrick and Saunders. But if Buchholz has a extraordinary 2017 warranting a three-year contract, what will Klentak do? The red pinstripes have the finances, Hellickson and his agent Scott Boras won’t reach a quick decision, and the organization may need a longtime veteran to front the staff. On the other hand, a Buchholz signing could be an albatross due to injury or ineffectiveness, but what could that mean for Klentak? A career definer.