Cleveland Indians 2017 Team Preview
After making a run all the way to Game 7 in one of the most exciting World Series in history, the Cleveland Indians appear loaded to try again in 2017
The Cleveland Indians have long been an organization known for futility. After 2016, the Indians now are the team in the major leagues with the longest run without a World Series title.
The Indians have now gone 68 seasons since winning the 1948 title, which gives them a 12 year longer streak than the next-closest team, the Texas Rangers.
Of course, behind the Indians, the next six teams on the World Series drought list are teams that have not won a World Series in their franchise history. So, they actually have a 31 year longer drought between World Series titles than the second-longest dry streak, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who last won in 1979.
Many saw the Indians as a team that could be better in 2016, but their win of the AL Central by 8 games with 94 victories was certainly beyond anything anyone would have predicted.
The Indians have worked their way back to the point of a very good team from top to bottom on the strength of excellent analytics, strong scouting, and some strong personnel hires along the way.
While the run of the Indians through the playoffs and to the World Series was exciting, what does 2017 have in store?
We’ll take a look at the team’s 2016-2017 offseason moves, both the key losses and key additions.
Then we’ll take a look at the team’s lineup and bench, followed by the rotation and bullpen.
We’ll follow that up with a run through of the people in charge of the team in the management, coaching, and front office roles.
Finally, you’ll get a prediction of what we at Call To The Pen see as the Indians’ 2017 chances.
Let’s kick it off with the offseason moves…
Next: Offseason Movement
Key Offseason Additions
There is no bigger offseason addition in the game in the view of many than the addition of Edwin Encarnacion to the Cleveland Indians lineup. Encarnacion is one of the elite hitters in the game right now, and it is unlike the typically frugal Indians to sign a player like Encarnacion.
Encarnacion will be 34-36 over the 3 guaranteed years of his contract, but he also was a late bloomer, having not eclipsed 600 plate appearances in a season until he was 29 years old, so while he’s been up in the league since he was 22, he’s really just 5 years into his full-time career.
Those 5 years have been incredibly impressive as well, as Encarnacion has AVERAGED a .272/.367/.544 slash line with 39 home runs and 110 RBI over those 5 seasons. And before you say that was just in Toronto, that was also a 146 OPS+ in that time, so he was 46% better than league average for hitters even with his hitting environment.
The other major contract of the offseason was signing left-handed reliever Boone Logan to a one-year deal with an option for 2018 that had $6.5M guaranteed.
Logan has been a well-regarded lefty specialist over his career who sports a career .670 OPS allowed against lefties and .855 allowed to righties.
After a long offseason of waiting out the market, the Indians were pleased to see defensive stalwart Austin Jackson fall to them in late January on a minor league deal that has a $1.5M base if he makes the Indians.
Under the radar, the Indians made a waiver claim that could be a nice grab for the team in lefty Tim Cooney, who they got from the St. Louis Cardinals. Cooney is coming back from a season missed due to shoulder injury, so he’s no sure thing, but he has a very high level of talent if he can get back to even working out of the bullpen.
The Indians also maneuvered on the waiver wire to grab former first-round selection Richie Shaffer. Schaffer is a powerful right-handed hitter who should give the Indians a bench bat that can cover the infield and outfield corners.
A December trade with the Dodgers brought in lanky right-hander Carlos Frias, who could be the Indians right-handed version of Andrew Miller out of the bullpen with his wicked sinker if he’s healthy after a rough 2016, injury-wise.
Another interesting offseason signing was former top prospect, outfielder Wily Mo Pena, a good friend of Encarnacion’s, who hasn’t played in the United States since 2011. He’s been playing in Japan since, and could be an intriguing follow this spring.
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Key Offseason Losses
When you listen to interviews this spring, it’s quite obvious that the statistical impact of Mike Napoli won’t be missed anywhere near the way his clubhouse impact will be.
The team is working to come together without Napoli’s leadership in the clubhouse, and while Encarnacion should bring plenty of statistical output, the elite contribution Napoli brought off the field could be the biggest loss of the offseason.
The Indians lost outfielder Rajai Davis to the Oakland Athletics, though Davis likely wouldn’t have the same amount of playing time in 2017 in Cleveland as he has in Oakland.
Veteran outfielders Marlon Byrd and Coco Crisp both left via free agency. Veteran righty reliever Jeff Manship also elected free agency in order to pitch in Korea.
Let’s take a look at the position players of note for 2017…
Next: Lineup/Bench
Everyday Lineup
With most of their every day lineup returning, there will be minimal changes to the team’s offensive profile, with Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez keying things behind the plate.
Around the infield will be Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez. While Kipnis returned to power/speed that he hadn’t shown since 2013 and Lindor continued to take steps forward to be the face of the Indians for the next decade, the play of Ramirez was completely surprising.
The former utility man had never really shown a propensity to hit, let alone provide significantly above league average offense, and yet he smacked 46 doubles to go with a .312/.363/.462 slash line, 11 homers and 22 steals. He also offered versatility as well, playing 117 of his games at third, but also playing left, short, and second on the season.
The transition of Lonnie Chisenhall to the outfield was a resounding success, and Tyler Naquin provided significantly more offensive value than he’d ever have expected.
What wasn’t expected was to have star outfielder Michael Brantley only be able to play in 11 games on the season. He is reportedly healthy this spring, and the team is hoping for a return to production from him.
Carlos Santana will again be the primary DH, though he and Encarnacion could share some 1B/DH time.
The primary prospects that could impact the lineup will be in the outfield, where Bradley Zimmer and Greg Allen very well could both find their way to Cleveland in 2017. Allen has traditional leadoff skills and elite defense, while Zimmer offers a powerful arm, great defense, big power and speed, but has struggled some with contact in his minor league career. Either could be an impactful player once they arrive, but most likely it’d require Naquin or Chisenhall struggling or Brantley coming up injured again.
Bench
The Indians will have a very intriguing battle for bench spots this spring. One spot will go to Gomes/Perez as the backup catcher, but from there, much is up in the air.
Abraham Almonte will likely be a fixture off the bench after a PED suspension cost him 80 games of 2016 and, more importantly, left him ineligible for post-season play. He’ll likely spell all three outfield positions, and his switch-hitting could allow him to step in if needed to cover for an injury in the starting lineup.
Almonte’s roster position could be threatened by Brandon Guyer and his human punching bag routine. Guyer’s primary offensive contribution seems to be getting hit by pitch as he’s led the league in the statistic the last two seasons, in spite of totaling just 625 at bats combined between 2015 and 2016. Guyer does offer a right-handed bat in the outfield, and that could play better off the bench in the outfield as Brantley, Naquin, and Chisenhall are all lefty-swingers. In the end, Guyer being out of options while Almonte has one could make the decision easier for the Indians.
The backup infielder position will be intriguing as the Indians really don’t expect to get much for offense from the position. Michael Martinez, made famous for all the wrong reasons when he had to come off the bench in game 7 of the World Series for his bat instead of his glove, has no options left. Fellow infielder Erik Gonzalez does have one option left. That could end up making the decision for the team, though Gonzalez is on the team’s 40-man roster while Martinez would have to be added.
Austin Jackson will be an intriguing option as a non-roster invite to see if he can crack the outfield bench. Other non-roster invites that could make an impression include Richie Shaffer as a corner infield/corner outfield right-handed power bat. Chris Colabello also offers a right-handed bat off the bench, though he is limited to first base and DH, so it is likely that he’ll not make the team without an injury opening up a spot.
Now, let’s turn to the pitching…
Next: Rotation/Bullpen
Starting Rotation
The remarkable thing about the Indians’ World Series run in 2016 was that they pulled it off without two of their top three starters as Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were out.
Both Carrasco and Salazar should be in line behind ace Corey Kluber to open the 2017 season. They’ll be joined in the rotation by Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin in one of the most stable rotations in the game.
There is no shortage of options if one of the starters would go down, either. Cody Anderson and Mike Clevinger each threw 50+ innings for the big league club, primarily as a starter, in 2016.
The Indians also acquired Tim Cooney and Carlos Frias, who should offer some depth to the rotation, even if at AAA as long as they can stay healthy.
Bullpen
The Indians bullpen was the talk of the 2016 postseason, and while setup man Andrew Miller got much of the attention, the guy at the back end of the bullpen remains Cody Allen, a former 23rd round draft pick who has been a steady force for the Indians since he came up with the team a mere year after being drafted and has posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 317 games as an Indian.
Miller stole the show in the postseason with his incredibly unique usage, going multiple innings, sometimes as many as 3+ innings, nearly unheard of in modern baseball. He was absolutely dominant on the mound, though he was clearly exhausted by game 7, and that’s exactly why you will not be seeing that sort of usage in the regular season this year. Miller will assume a more traditional setup role until the playoffs, when all bets are off.
The third member of the bullpen back end trio is righty Bryan Shaw, a fixture in the Cleveland bullpen alongside Allen since 2012. Shaw has a tremendous ability to generate two sorts of contact – ground outs or weak pop ups. He’s brought in frequently to either induce a double play or get a weak out that won’t allow a run to score.
2016 saw a tremendous performance out of Dan Otero, who returns to the club for 2017. Otero has pitched for three different teams in the major leagues, but many thought he was done after a 6.75 ERA with Oakland in 2015, but the Indians picked him up and he posted a 1.53 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 62 appearances.
The bullpen will be filled out by LOOGY Boone Loogan and former starting prospect Zach McAllister, who has taken to the bullpen very well. Rule 5 pick Hoby Milner will be an interesting guy to see if he sticks as a 3rd lefty with Miller and Logan after a big season at the upper minors in the Phillies system in 2016.
The Indians did invite a number of non-roster arms that were intriguing to camp, including righty Steve Delabar, lefty Chris Narveson, and lefty James Russell. None would likely hold a front-line spot in the bullpen, but each could offer something to the bullpen if they could have a strong spring.
Now onto the guys calling the shots…
Next: Manager/Coaching Staff/Front Office
Manager
Terry Francona may have started out in the small town in South Dakota most famous for being the home of L.Frank Baum when he wrote The Wonderful Wizard of Oz, but he’s followed up a decade-long major league career where he hit .274 as a pinch-hitter off the bench by becoming one of the most well-regarded and highly-respected managers in the entire game.
His abilities as a managerial strategist were on full display in the World Series in 2016, and while it should come as no surprise as we all watched him deliver Boston their first World Series title in 86 years in 2004 before winning it again 3 years later.
Francona is not a fresh-faced 40 year-old, freshly retired from the game, but he’s also a few years from 60 as well, so he’s by no means old for the role either, and his players swear by him.
His career record speaks for itself – 16 years managing, a .533 winning percentage overall, two World Series titles, and an American League pennant. He’s now won 90+ games 8 of his past 12 seasons, and not one of those seasons did his team finish below .500.
Coaching Staff
While the excellent work of Ty Van Burkleo as the Indians hitting coach is known around the league, bench coach Brad Mills is one of the most respected guys in the game, and first base coach Sandy Alomar, Jr. has received a few overtures for manager positions, the guy on the coaching staff that everyone wants to talk about is pitching coach Mickey Callaway.
Callaway is in his fifth year with the Indians, and his staff has led the league in strikeouts each of the last three seasons. Before he got to the majors, Callaway was the minor league pitching coordinator in the organization and coached within the system at different levels within the Indians system.
Callaway is known for getting big swing and miss stuff from his pitchers, oftentimes guys who aren’t known for their ability to miss bats. His work with Corey Kluber has received plenty of attention as well, though Kluber certainly put in his own effort to improve as well.
Front Office
As the Indians watched another former member of their front office get hired away to another team into general manager roles, there had to be some level of pride there, though I’m sure they’d rather have not seen Derek Falvey working for a divisional rival!
The Indians were at the forefront of the analytics movement. In fact, key figure in Moneyball, Paul DePodesta, actually got his start working under John Hart when he was the GM of the Indians.
The man who sits in the lead decision-making chair in Cleveland at this point is President of Baseball Operations Chris Antonetti. He works alongside GM Mike Chernoff to put together one of the most highly-regarded analytical and scouting staffs in the game.
Next: Prediction
2017 Prediction
Now comes the fun part…
Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota projection system foresees the Indians not only having a 92-win season, but also winning their division by 12 games and finishing just one game behind the Astros for the best record in the American League.
Fangraphs’ Steamer projection system sees the Indians finishing with the same 92 wins, finishing tied with the Red Sox for the best record in the American League, and winning their division by 11 games.
The most recent Westgate odds from Las Vegas have the Indians with the fourth-best shot to win the World Series at 9-1.
Needless to say, it’s hard not to like the Indians this season. They have depth in pitching that is very impressive. Their outfield depth is quite good, especially with the youngsters soon to be ready.
I will go fairly in line with the odds makers and say the Indians win 93 games, win the Central with ease, and they end up in the ALCS again. I’m not yet ready to install them as World Series favorites or participants quite yet, but this is exactly how you want to handle a World Series team if you were to draw up a perfect offseason. Small moves outside of one big move that will be a monster impact.
Indians fans should have plenty to cheer about in 2017.
For a fun reminder of the end of the 2016 season, here is one of the best moments of the 2016 World Series. While the Cubs came back in this game, this was, in my opinion, the biggest postseason home run since Kirby Puckett: