Lucas Giolito was once the highest-regarded pitching prospect in all of baseball. Can he regain that luster now that he’s with the Chicago White Sox?
Player Profile
The Chicago White Sox acquired Giolito this offseason from the Washington Nationals.
Considered a possible #1 overall selection going into his senior year of high school, Lucas Frost Giolito had all the things you’d look for in a prototype high school pitcher – perfect size, big fastball, feel for a change, effective breaking pitch.
And then his elbow popped. Giolito ended up needing Tommy John surgery, and with the surgery looming, it was a big curiosity going into the draft where he would be selected (or if he would at all).
The Washington Nationals ended up being the team to take that chance at the #16 overall pick in the first round, something the Nationals have now become known for doing – taking a pitcher while recovering from TJS (or about to have the surgery) and working with him through a protocol to strengthen his arm post-surgery.
After making one appearance in the Gulf Coast League where he threw two innings and allowed a run, Giolito went under the knife.
Based on his pre-surgery pedigree, Giolito was rated as the #67 prospect by Baseball America before the 2013 season, #74 by MLB Pipeline and #70 by Baseball Prospectus.
Roughly a year later, he was back on the mound for the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League team, and after eight starts at that level, the Nationals let him make three appearances with their Auburn affiliate in the New York-Penn League.
Combined between the two levels, he made 11 starts, throwing 36 2/3 innings, posting a 1.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.52 percent walk rate and 26.53 percent strikeout rate.
His excellent return from surgery rocketed him up prospect lists, and after that 2013 season, he was rated #21 by BA, #44 by MLB Pipeline and #13 by BP.
In what has become a common practice for Washington in handling their post-op pitchers, Giolito’s first full season post-surgery was all in one location, no matter how much he dominated (and he definitely did dominate).
He spent that 2014 full season with Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League in low-A, where he made 20 starts, throwing 98 innings with a 2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.25 percent walk rate and 28.5 percent strikeout rate.
Those dominating numbers led any rankers holding back to jump in with both feet, and Giolito found himself a consensus top-10 prospect as BA had him #7, MLB Pipeline #6 and BP #6.
Giolito split his 2015 season between high-A Potomac in the Carolina League and AA Harrisburg in the Eastern League. While his numbers weren’t eye-popping, they still showed plenty of dominance for a 20-year-old who threw just short of 50 AA innings.
His 2015 combined stat line was 21 appearances (19 starts), throwing 117 innings with a 3.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.49 percent walk rate and 26.52 percent strikeout rate. He did see a curious tick up in his hit batsmen and wild pitches, indicating there could be some command/control issues under the surface.
Prospect lists weren’t worried about a few extra wild pitches, however. BA moved Giolito all the way to #5 overall while both MLB Pipeline and BP had him #3 overall.
While 2016 saw Giolito make his major league debut, it could be viewed as a difficult season for Giolito. He opened the year with AA Harrisburg in the Eastern League, worked his way to AAA Syracuse, and threw 20+ innings in the major leagues as well.
His combined minor league numbers were 22 starts, 115 1/3 innings, a 2.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.02 percent walk rate and a 23.77 percent strikeout rate.
With Washington in the majors, he made six appearances, four of them starts, throwing 21 1/3 innings with a 6.75 ERA, 1.78 ERA, 11.88 percent walk rate and 10.89 percent strikeout rate. He also had a tremendously high home run rate in the major leagues.
At the winter meetings, the Chicago White Sox acquired Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning for outfielder Adam Eaton to play center field for the Nationals.
While the prospect community continued to rank Giolito highly, he did fall some in rankings after his struggles, ranking #25 overall with BA, #11 with MLB Pipeline and #10 with BP.
I had Giolito ranked #12 overall in the Call to the Pen top 125 prospect list that came out in January.
Next: Giolito's scouting report