Seattle Mariners: 2017 Team Preview
The Seattle Mariners haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years, but a 10-game improvement from 2015 to 2016 has their fans optimistic for 2017.
The Seattle Mariners are celebrating the franchise’s 40th anniversary in 2017. They came into existence along with the Toronto Blue Jays as an expansion team in 1977. While the Blue Jays have 22 winning seasons, seven post-season appearances, and two World Series titles, the Mariners have been less successful. They have just 13 winning seasons in 40 years, along with four post-season appearances. They have yet to make it to the World Series.
Even more frustrating for Mariners fans is that their four post-season appearances came in a span of seven seasons from 1995 to 2001. Outside of that stretch, they’ve experienced 33 years without making the playoffs, including the last 15 seasons. Not only have they missed the postseason for a decade-and-a-half, they have often been well out of contention heading into September.
Of course, there have been occasional seasons when the team gave their fans hopes, only to fall short. Last year was one of those seasons. The Mariners were within a couple games of a wild card spot in the final week of the season. They ultimately finished three games behind the Blue Jays and Orioles in the wild card race.
There is good news, though. Last year’s Mariners were 10 games better than the 2015 team. They also had the fourth-best run-differential in the American League and the best run-differential in their own division. If the Texas Rangers hadn’t been an incredible 36-11 in 1-run games, the Mariners could have won the AL West .The Rangers are not likely to repeat that record in 1-run games, so there’s a good chance they come back to the pack.
So, how do the Mariners look for 2017? As most baseball fans know, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has been very busy since he took over in late September of 2015. He’s made more moves than any other GM and has totally reshaped the Mariners roster. Let’s look at some of his moves leading into this season.
Important Additions
Shortstop Jean Segura—The Mariners’ shortstop last year was Ketel Marte, who went from a small-sample size darling in 2015 to a below replacement-level dud in 2016. He was part of the trade to Arizona that brought back Jean Segura. Segura has had an up-and-down career. He was good in 2013 with the Milwaukee Brewers but then really struggled in 2014 and 2015. He bounced back last year to have the best season of his career. According to FanGraphs, Segura was worth 5 wins above replacement (fWAR) in 2016. He can’t be expected to repeat that season, but should be a solid starter for the M’s.
Outfielder Jarrod Dyson—Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto wanted to improve the team’s defense and Dyson is a big part of that plan. He’s a very good fielder and a fast base runner who is capable of stealing 30 or more bases. The drawback is that Dyson is a below-average hitter and has almost no power. Because of his career-long struggles to hit left-handed pitching, he will likely be in a platoon arrangement with a right-handed hitter, with Guillermo Heredia and Shawn O’Malley being two potential options.
Outfielder Mitch Haniger—Haniger was part of the Jean Segura trade and is expected to get the bulk of the playing time in right field. Like Dyson and Leonys Martin, the other two starting outfielders for the Mariners, Haniger is a good fielder, which is important to Dipoto. Haniger is projected to be better with the bat than Dyson. He actually has some power and could be a 15-20 home run guy this year after hitting a combined 30 home runs across three levels of play in 2016.
First Baseman Dan Vogelbach—Vogelbach actually came over in a July trade last year, but he didn’t play much with the Mariners last season. He’s expected to share time at first base this year with another new addition, Danny Valencia. Vogelbach has had some very good years in Triple-A. The Mariners are hoping he proves he can hit major league pitching this year.
Infielder/Outfielder Danny Valencia—The Mariners acquired Valencia in a trade with Oakland last November. He’s here to do one thing: hit left-handed pitching. In his career, he’s been 39% better than league average when facing a lefty but 15% below league average when facing a righty. He can play first base, third base, or the outfield.
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Backup Catcher Carlos Ruiz—The Mariners are hoping Carlos Ruiz won’t be forced to play much. The team wants Mike Zunino to take control of the catcher’s position, with Ruiz spelling him when needed. Ruiz is 38 years old and should be limited to a couple games per week.
Starting Pitcher Drew Smyly—Another off-season acquisition, Smyly is currently expected to be a #4 or #5 starter but has the ability to be better than that. He struggled with a 4.88 ERA last season in large part due to the 32 home runs he allowed in 175 1/3 innings. If he can get his home run problems under control, he can shave a full run off that ERA.
Starting Pitcher Yovani Gallardo—Gallardo was acquired in a trade for Seth Smith with the Baltimore Orioles in January. He’s slated for the back end of the Mariners’ starting rotation and is more of an innings eater than solid starter these days.
Relief Pitcher Dan Altavilla—Altavilla was very good in Double-A last year and even better in a small sample size of 12 1/3 innings with the Mariners at the end of the season. He could pitch himself into an important role as the setup man for closer Edwin Diaz.
Relief Pitcher Marc Rzepczynski—The player with the nickname Scrabble (look at all those letters in his last name) is the leading contender for the top left-handed reliever spot in the Mariners’ bullpen.
Important Subtractions
Starting Pitcher Taijuan Walker—Traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in November as the key piece for the Diamondbacks in the Jean Segura trade, Walker has flashed potential in his young career but has yet to put together a strong full season. He’s still young, just 24 years old this season, but has a career ERA of 4.18. He has enough talent that the Mariners could regret trading him, but he’ll have to take a step forward to make that happen.
Infielder Ketel Marte—Marte was also part of the Taijuan Walker/Jean Segura trade. He was a very nice surprise for the Mariners when he came up from Triple-A in 2015 and hit .283/.351/.402 in 57 games. They had hopes that he would solidify the shortstop position, but he struggled mightily last year when he hit .259/.287/.323.
Outfielder Seth Smith—Smith was traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Yovani Gallardo. In his two years with the Mariners, Smith did what he was supposed to do—hit right-handed pitching. He wasn’t very good on defense and will be 34 years old, so the team swapped him for a pitcher they hope can eat 160 or more innings without being terrible.
Pitcher Nate Karns—Karns was traded to the Kansas City Royals for Jarrod Dyson. The Mariners had hoped Karns would be a solid part of their rotation last year, but he had a 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 22 games (15 starts). He was better than his ERA, though. He had a 4.05 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).
Relief Pitcher Vidal Nuno—Nuno was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for catcher Carlos Ruiz. He was the Mariners’ most-used left-handed reliever last year, but he should be easy to replace.
Projected Lineup/Rotation/Bullpen
Based on FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the Mariners last year finished 10th in offensive fWAR, 19th in starting pitching fWAR, and 15th in relief pitching fWAR. This year, FanGraphs has the Mariners projected to finish 11th in offensive fWAR, 15th in starting pitching fWAR, and 5th in relief pitching fWAR. That’s a good sign for the upcoming season. Specifically, here are the projected statistics for the Mariners’ hitters and pitchers from the FanGraphs Depth Charts:
Lineup/Bench
Plate Appearances, AVG/OBP/SLG
406 PA, .254/.315/.347—LF Jarrod Dyson (1.5 fWAR)
623 PA, .271/.312/.394—SS Jean Segura (2.1 fWAR)
630 PA, .288/.343/.469—2B Robinson Cano (3.6 fWAR)
630 PA, .266/.334/.508—DH Nelson Cruz (2.5 fWAR)
644 PA, .266/.340/.463—3B Kyle Seager (4.0 fWAR)
525 PA, .243/.309/.411—RF Mitch Haniger (1.2 fWAR)
301 PA, .243/.334/.408—1B Dan Vogelbach (0.6 fWAR)
416 PA, .218/.289/.415—C Mike Zunino (1.8 fWAR)
609 PA, .244/.298/.367—CF Leonys Martin (1.8 fWAR)
518 PA, .261/.314/.426—INF/OF Danny Valencia (0.5 fWAR)
294 PA, .253/.306/.372—OF Ben Gamel (0.0 fWAR)
192 PA, .241/.321/.331—C Carlos Ruiz (0.6 fWAR)
161 PA, .237/.298/.324—INF/OF Shawn O’Malley (0.0 fWAR)
126 PA, .254/.328/.338—OF Guillermo Heredia (0.1 fWAR)
The top of the lineup does not look that impressive with Dyson and Segura projected for on-base percentages around .315, but then you look at the bottom of the lineup, where Zunino and Martin are projected to have on-base percentages under .300, and the top of the lineup doesn’t look so bad. Segura, of course, was much better than this last year. He hit .319/.368/.499, so the 2017 projection is a significant fall to earth. His career batting line is .280/.319/.396, though, so his projection above may not be too far off.
The key to the lineup has been, and will continue to be, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. They will provide a good amount of the run production and the team hopes Mitch Haniger and the Danny Vogelbachencia pair can help produce runs in the sixth and seventh spots in the lineup. Zunino is a big question mark at this point. He has a career on-base percentage of .262, with a 32.4% strikeout rate. His kryptonite is off-speed pitches on the outside half of the plate. Center fielder Leonys Martin got off to a great start last year. He hit .262/.339/.483 in the first two months of the season. From that point on, he hit .241/.292/.338. The Mariners are hoping first half Leonys Martin shows up again in 2017.
Starting Rotation
207 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.87 FIP—RHP Felix Hernandez (3.2 fWAR)
176 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.05 FIP—RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (2.6 fWAR)
170 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.65 FIP—LHP James Paxton (3.1 fWAR)
168 IP, 4.07 ERA, 4.04 FIP—LHP Drew Smyly (2.8 fWAR)
129 IP, 4.63 ERA, 4.63 FIP—RHP Yovani Gallardo (0.9 fWAR)
If these starters reach their projected marks, that’s not a bad front four. This projected Felix Hernandez is not the Felix Hernandez he once was, but a 3-win pitcher is valuable. Hernandez, Iwakuma, Paxton, and Smyly all have a shot at reaching that 3 fWAR threshold. Gallardo, on the other hand, does not look like much of an addition. If he falters, lefty Ariel Miranda is likely next in line.
Bullpen
65 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.65 FIP—RHP Edwin Diaz (1.9 fWAR)
65 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.69 FIP—RHP Nick Vincent (0.9 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.42 ERA, 3.55 FIP—RHP Evan Scribner (0.6 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.56 ERA, 3.61 FIP—RHP Steve Cishek (0.5 fWAR)
40 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.77 FIP—LHP Mark Rzepczynski (0.2 fWAR)
The FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Mariners’ bullpen to be the fifth-best in baseball, based on wins above replacement. They have a dynamic closer in Edwin Diaz, who is projected to strike out more than 12 batters per nine innings. They also have a plethora of right-handed options to get the game from the starter to Diaz. The left-handed options beyond the veteran Rzepczynski are young and unproven and include two guys new to the organization since last season—James Pazos and Zac Curtis. Dipoto’s bullpen philosophy seems to be to get as many lively arms as possible and see who can pitch his way into a spot in the bullpen.