The Baltimore Orioles face an uphill battle as they try to return to the postseason, but residents of Birdland have seen this story before.
Dan Duquette took over as general manager of the Baltimore Orioles following the 2011 season. Since then, all the team has done is exceed expectations, reaching the playoffs in three of five years and not once finishing below .500.
The Orioles finished last season with an 89-73 record despite scoring only 29 runs more than they allowed. Their Pythagorean win-loss record, which predicts a team’s record based on the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed, was 84-78. Back in 2012 the Orioles had an even more extreme separation, with a 93-69 record compared to an 82-80 Pythagorean record.
What accounts for such a discrepancy? Are the Orioles lucky, or have they broken some kind of code that will enable them to consistently outperform what one might expect? Usually when a team has a better record than what their run differential might suggest, that means they’re winning close games and losing others in blowout fashion.
Sure enough, the makeup of the Baltimore roster lends itself to these outcomes on a replicable basis. The starting rotation is a weakness, especially at the bottom. Opponents have been likely to score early and often. The offense is very boom or bust, extremely reliant on the home run ball to score. The back end of the bullpen is something special.
This all means that when the Orioles put their power on display and keep games close, the bullpen will do its job and shut down opponents. This happened quite a bit, as their 253 home runs easily led the majors. But when the ball isn’t leaving the yard, the Orioles have not shown an ability to manufacture runs. Joey Rickard led the team in stolen bases in 2016… with four. Four! As a team, Baltimore only stole 19 bases on the season, or one less than what third baseman Manny Machado stole in 2015. Machado finished the 2016 season without a steal, a puzzling development in an otherwise stellar age-23 season.
Most of the gang is still all here for 2017, so manager Buck Showalter will try to work his magic again as the Orioles look to continue defying the odds with another postseason appearance.