2017 Predictions
Lineup — More of the same can be expected from the Baltimore offense in 2017, as the lineup is filled with familiar faces. Third baseman Manny Machado and second baseman Jonathan Schoop are a year older and should continue to break out. First baseman Chris Davis and the seemingly positionless Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez will continue to provide immense power. Adam Jones is a mainstay in center field, while J.J. Hardy will attempt to stay healthy at shortstop. Seth Smith and Hyun Soo Kim will likely function as strong sides of platoons in the corner outfield spots. However, it should be noted that Kim skipped the relatively meaningless World Baseball Classic so he could use Spring Training to prove to the Baltimore brass that he can handle the job on a full-time basis. Welington Castillo takes over behind the plate.
Rotation — Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman were quietly solid starters for the Orioles in 2016, each with an ERA well below 4.00. They’ll return to head up the rotation, though Tillman is expected to miss the start of the regular season. Gausman seems poised to break out. Dylan Bundy has dealt with his share of injuries since debuting as a 19-year-old in 2012. He didn’t reappear with the Orioles till last season, but he appears poised to step into the rotation on a full-time basis while still a young 24. Wade Miley had a dismal 6.17 ERA in 11 starts for Baltimore after coming over in a trade from Seattle last July. Ubaldo Jimenez put up a 5.44 ERA in 142.1 innings. Unfortunately, the Orioles are counting on both to round out their rotation.
Bullpen and Bench — The bullpen is absolutely stacked, with closer Zach Britton coming off an historic season in which he put up a 0.54 ERA across 67 innings. Of course some regression is likely, but he should still be one of the game’s dominant relievers. A trio of right-handers will set him up in Brad Brach, Mychal Givens and Darren O’Day. All four have the ability to strike out in excess of 10 per nine innings pitched. The top offensive reserves include Joey Rickard, last year’s Rule 5 pick, across the outfield and Ryan Flaherty, another former Rule 5 pick, around the infield. Caleb Joseph will again serve as backup catcher. Joseph followed up his 49 RBI total in 2015 by driving in absolutely nobody across 141 plate appearances in 2016.
Overall — Despite returning most of the key pieces of last season’s 89-win playoff team, most projections expect quite a bit of regression in 2017 for the Orioles. Baseball Prospectus calls for Baltimore to have the second-worst record in the American League at 74-88. Fangraphs is a bit more optimistic, projecting an 81-81 record, while Vegas pins the over/under at 79.5 wins. Conventional wisdom says that Buck Showalter may not have the opportunity to atone for leaving Zach Britton in the bullpen during the extra innings loss to Toronto in the AL Wild Card game.
Next: Washington Nationals Preview
The American League is very deep this year, so a return to the playoffs for Baltimore does seem unlikely, and I’m not predicting they’ll make it. But recent history suggests that another unexpected magical run is still possible.