Feb 25, 2017; Lakeland, FL, USA; The Houston Astros stand for the national anthem before a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers during spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker came into the league as part of a financial deal, but he’s turned himself into an elite prospect.
Player Profile
The Houston Astros drafted Kyle Daniel Tucker out of high school in Florida with the fifth overall draft pick in the 2015 draft.
Tucker was a solid prospect for sure, but he was regarded as a cheap sign, drafted as the Astros wanted to use their multiple early picks to get two top-10 to top-15 level talents by saving money from their draft slot at the #5 pick spot and use it later, which they did with outfielder Daz Cameron.
Tucker opened his professional career with the Astros’ Gulf Coast League affiliate. He split the season evenly between GCL and the advanced rookie affiliate in the Appalachian League in Greeneville.
Combined, Tucker hit .246/.294/.353 with three home runs and 18 stolen bases. He posted a 6.3 percent walk rate and an 11.42 percent strikeout rate.
His draft pedigree and not being overwhelmed at either level of rookie ball had him ranked #61 with Baseball America, #74 with MLB Pipeline and #93 with Baseball Prospectus.
Tucker spent most of 2016 with Quad Cities in the Midwest League before a few weeks with Lancaster in the California League to finish his season.
He combined to hit .285/.360/.438 with nine home runs and 32 stolen bases. He slapped seven triples and posted a 10.06 percent walk rate and 16.3 percent strikeout rate.
His excellent season jumped him up the ranking services to #19 with BA, #35 with MLB Pipeline and #37 with BP.
I had Tucker ranked #19 in my top 125 MLB prospects list in January for Call to the Pen.
Next: Tucker's scouting report
Scouting Report
Size/Build
Tucker is listed at 6’4″ and 190 pounds, but I do think that’s probably as much as 15 pounds light now. Tucker has a long, athletic frame that could easily hold 210-225 pounds without sacrificing effective athleticism to be a very good defender.
Hitting
Contact (60) – While a ridiculous comparison to put on any player, there are people before the draft (and even since!) who have mentioned Ted Williams when discussing Tucker. Some of that is his physicality and stance, but a lot of that is due to the path and method of his swing, which is very pure and true.
Tucker does use a larger bat, and I noted that he would have some games where he really handled premium velocity and breaking stuff just fine, and other games where it didn’t do so well, but in listening to the 2080 podcast on the Astros farm system (Defensive Indifference is the name of the podcast, highly suggested as a listen!), they put into words what I saw in describing Tucker’s developing physical power handling the larger bat with inconsistency throughout the year.
That should smooth as he fills out more and grows more comfortable with his added musculature on his frame, and the contact could even flash a double plus as he has consistency in the handling of the bat in that excellent swing path.
Power (55) – I may be a bit behind the curve on Tucker here, but call this more of a present view on his power.
From what I’ve seen, Tucker has the swing and physical build that he could lead to him having plus or even 65-grade level power as soon as next year’s lists, and if he can turn that consistency in his swing into his bat path in 2017, he’ll easily be there.
Eye (60) – With a swing that showed some inconsistency, it’s notable that Tucker’s strike zone judgement is so developed that he kept his strikeout rate under 20 percent.
Tucker has also done a solid job of developing his pitch recognition and adding in walk rate every year as he’s advanced to better competition, not something you typically see, either.
Speed (50) – While Tucker has an athletic build, he has a long, lanky build that is not exactly naturally fast on the bases nor quick.
He has more ability to tap into the speed he does have when he’s running bases, but even then, his exceptionally long strides require him to know he’s going to be running a while to really turn it on, leaving his speed on the bases to be truly untapped.
In the outfield, he can use those long strides better when covering ground.
Defense (60) – Right now, Tucker works very well in center field. He has exceptional reads off the bat, and he can do some great things tracking the ball even with his average-ish speed.
With his frame filling in, he could end up working better in a corner long-term, but he should provide very good defense in a corner with the reads he gets on balls and solid defensive routes that he takes.
Arm (60) – Tucker’s arm is fringe-plus, but I think if he were tracked over to a corner, that would allow the high end accuracy he has to play up even further.
MLB Player Comp
Normally, I find a guy who is close physically with similar offensive/defensive profile to the guy I’m writing up, but it’s usually a bit off.
This very possibly could be the best pure comp I’ve been able to do in my multiple years of doing this as Kyle Tucker and Christian Yelich could play one another in Hollywood’s movie on either.
Both have solid lefty swings, both profile with similar size and build (6’4″, 189 for Yelich listed, but probably more like 200), and both are very good in a corner defensively while able to handle center defensively.
Tucker’s offensive profile also fits what many have been expecting from Yelich for a few years before Yelich’s big 2016 where he hit 21 home runs and produced a .185 ISO in the major leagues.
Tucker could also have a similar slow burn to developing and accessing his power at the major league level, though I do think he will have the benefit of not hitting the majors quite as early in his physical development as Yelich, who in his age 21 season spent 62 games in the major leagues already.
Tucker got a quick taste of high-A in 2016. He’ll likely open 2017 in high-A, but it would not surprise me at all if he finished the year in AA.
Tucker will not have a ton of resistance in front of him in Houston, so he’ll be able to push forward to the majors as quick as he can handle it, but at the same time, the Astros have depth to ensure he doesn’t need to be rushed to the big leagues either.
