Call to the pen
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MLB X-factors for 2017, Part III: AL West

By Jim Turvey

Mar 18, 2017; San Antonio, TX, USA; Texas Rangers catcher Alex Burg (98) is congratulated by teammates after hitting a two run home run during a spring exhibition baseball game against the Cleveland Indians at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 18, 2017; San Antonio, TX, USA; Texas Rangers catcher Alex Burg (98) is congratulated by teammates after hitting a two run home run during a spring exhibition baseball game against the Cleveland Indians at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 10, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 10, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /

Houston Astros – Dallas Keuchel

This one is pretty obvious. When you go from Cy Young winner in 2015 (20-8, 2.48 ERA) to 18th-highest ERA among qualified starters in 2016 (9-12, 4.55 ERA) obviously your team is going to suffer. Not coincidentally, the Astros went from an 86-win team that snuck into the playoffs to an 84-win team that missed the playoffs by five games. Keuchel’s 3.2 fWAR drop can’t be entirely to blame, but it certainly was a large factor.

Looking over the 2017 Astros’ roster, there is a boatload of offensive depth. The lineup goes one-to-nine with competent hitters (seriously, Nori Aoki is their projected nine hitter, per Roster Resource) and even has a few studs in the mix (highlighted by the George Springer–Jose Altuve–Carlos Correa top trio). Their bullpen should be rock solid with Ken Giles (x-factor nominee), Chris Devenski, Luke Gregerson and Will Harris shoring things up from the seventh inning on. 

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The pivot point on which the 2017 season will turn for Houston is the rotation. If Keuchel can perform at an ace-like level (5.0-ish WAR), this team is a definite World Series contender. If Keuchel is merely a middle of the rotation arm, this team will still be in the hunt for the playoffs, but not many teams will fear them as a serious contender. Lance McCullers has the potential to be a frontline arm, but we all know what potential is really just a French word for. Collin McHugh, Charlie Morton, Joe Musgrove and Mike Fiers make up a classic back end of the rotation, but it really all comes down to Keuchel.

So which Keuchel is the real one? The paint-the-corners-like-Picasso 2015 version or the get-beat-like-a-drum 2016 version? As is always the case, the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Sure, Keuchel had some bad luck in 2016, his left on base rate plummeted and he had tough luck in terms of home runs allowed. He also struck out fewer hitters and walked more of them. His elite groundball rate slipped into the merely above average range and he did allow a much higher rate of hard hit balls.

I’m a huge believer in this Astros team in part because I think Keuchel will settle back into the 3.5 WAR range. I think he will be solid enough to be the team’s ace while McCullers matures into his potential. If Keuchel struggles, however, especially early in the season, it will be interesting to see how the team responds.

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