Oakland Athletics: Re-Examining the Rotation in the Absence of Sonny Gray

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Oakland Athletics ace Sonny Gray has yet another injury, his third in less than a year.

In 2016, he spent much of the season on the disabled list, first with a strained right trapezius and later with a sore right forearm. He only pitched one inning for the Oakland Athletics after August 6.

Gray returned to camp this year claiming to feel 100 percent healthy, which was likely the case. Unfortunately for Gray, this did not last.

In his first spring outing he appeared to be the Sonny Gray that everyone had seen since he was called up from the minors in July of 2013. The same Gray that finished third in the Cy Young Award voting just two seasons ago.

However, in his second outing he struggled, allowing five runs in the first inning alone. This was the Sonny Gray that the A’s saw last season. He would return from injury looking good but a start or perhaps two later, the now 27-year-old right-hander would begin to struggle again.

The A’s are quietly holding their breaths, hoping that Gray will return to the at the end of April looking like the pitcher he was in 2015.

Still, after having three separate injuries in one year some A’s fans (and likely the A’s brass) are beginning to have flashbacks of Rich Harden, a very talented pitcher who just couldn’t stay off of the disabled list.

So who are the Oakland Athletics’ options, at least until Gray returns and potentially after?

President of baseball operations Billy Beane has said that the team will not look outside the organization for a pitcher to replace Gray. Per CSN Bay Area:

“I don’t think it’s necessarily a fertile market to be diving into right now anyway this time of year. I think we prefer to stay in-house and give maybe somebody an opportunity.”

The Athletics do have pitching depth within the organization, so it’s time to take a realistic look at what the A’s starting rotation will look like in 2017 without Sonny Gray.

Kendall Graveman is easily the A’s first choice for their Opening Day starter against the Los Angeles Angels on April 3.

The 26-year-old will now be entering his third full season in the majors. He’s had his own struggles with injuries in his rookie season, yet when healthy he has truly shown signs of brilliance on the mound.

Last season, after it was known that Gray would be out for quite some time and Rich Hill had been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, it was Graveman who anchored the ever-changing rotation in the second half of the season.

While Graveman has had his struggles, like being sent down to Triple-A in April of his rookie year, he’s always come back with a vengeance. Upon his return from the minors on May 23, 2015 through July 4, 2015, Graveman did not allow more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts over that span.

From May 23 until he suffered an oblique injury in early August, Graveman put up a 3.10 ERA over 15 starts.

Last year Graveman led the A’s in WAR (3.3) over both sluggers Khris Davis (2.5) and Marcus Semien (3.0). Sixteen of his 31 starts were considered to be quality starts and despite a slightly elevated ERA of 4.11, he had a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.29.

He also produced what was probably the highlight of the season, alongside Davis’ 42 home runs, when he took a perfect game against the Texas Rangers into the seventh inning.

It appears in Gray’s absence, Graveman will have to anchor the rotation again this season, but at least the string of different pitchers and rookies filling out the rest of the rotation won’t be quite as diverse and inexperienced as they were in 2016.

Twenty-five-year-old Sean Manaea is one of the A’s most promising up and coming pitchers.

The left-hander put up some good numbers in his rookie season, making 2016 look like a potential breakout year.

Last season Manaea went 7-9 in 24 starts with a 3.86 ERA and pitched just under 150 innings, while collecting 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

Those numbers, according to Fangraphs, are even more impressive given that he gave up 21 of his runs in his first 27 innings in the big leagues.

He adjusted well to the majors putting up better number in the second half of the season and while he still has steps to take, all indications point to Manaea improving more and more.

It’s likely he’ll be the number two starter (without Gray in the mix). It’s a big position for the youngster to be in but again signs point to the fact that Manaea is up for the challenge.

Mostly a three-pitch pitcher, Manaea throws a four-seam fastball, changeup and an excellent slider that produced a 20 percent swinging strike rate all on its own.

Manaea’s 12 percent overall swinging strike rate ranked above notable superstars like Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale. This means it’s very likely that there will be an uptick in his strikeout numbers in the future.

Of course, every young pitcher has to make the necessary adjustments that come with moving from the minors to the majors.

He needs to work on getting out right-handers though. Seventeen of the 21 home runs he allowed in 2015 were hit by right-handed hitters.

Manaea also needs to be more aware when he’s playing away from the A’s expansive home field at the Oakland Coliseum, his numbers were skewed towards him playing better at home.

Given that Manaea has only made 24 big league starts, his full potential has yet to be realized. Pitching second in the rotation is a big job but Manaea shows every indication that he’s going to continue to develop into one of the league’s elite starters.

Jharel Cotton was acquired by the Oakland Athletics in the trade that sent both starting pitcher Rich Hill and right fielder Josh Reddick to the Los Angeles Dodgers last season.

Although he wasn’t called up until September, the 25-year-old right-hander dominated the minor leagues.

Upon arriving in Oakland he showed even more potential using his 92-93 MPH fastball, effective cutter and an unbelievable changeup to get hitters out.

Cotton’s changeup features improbable velocity separation and movement. It has baffled even the most experienced of hitters.

Cotton made five starts for the Athletics in 2016. He went 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA over 29.1 innings pitched.

He easily profiles as a league average starter with his three pitch repertoire, distinguishing himself from everyone else with that incredible changeup.

Being the number three pitcher in the A’s rotation is a perfect spot for him at this point in his young career.

But now the real question: Who will be the back-end starters?

Andrew Triggs proved to be a much better starter for the A’s than when he came out of the bullpen. He made six starts for the A’s toward the end of last season.

He moved between Triple-A and the majors an A’s record eight times in 2016, but the more telling transition for Triggs was between the bullpen and the starting rotation.

He proved himself to be much better in a starting role. Making seven starts for the Athletics, Triggs pitched 26.2 innings while posting a 2.71 ERA. Earlier in the season he pitched 29.2 innings out of the bullpen to the tune of a 5.76 ERA, making Triggs the front runner for the fourth spot in the A’s rotation.

Now it all comes down to Raul Alcantara and Jesse Hahn. Hahn disappointed last season starting nine games and posting a 6.02 ERA, allowing more hits, home runs and walks per nine innings than he ever had in his career and getting fewer strikeouts as well.

However, Hahn has been pitching well this spring. He’s made three appearances, two of them starts and has posted a 3.12 ERA over 8.2 innings. Hahn is making a case for the for the last rotation spot.

Hahn may not get that rotation spot however because Raul Alcantara is out of options, meaning he can’t be sent to Triple-A in Nashville. Beane did say that the issue would be taken into consideration but that the player chosen for the fifth spot will be based mostly on performance.

Unfortunately for Alcantara, his spring numbers haven’t been quite as good as Hahn’s. He’s made five appearances, two of which were starts and has posted a 4.91 ERA and has only stuck out six batters in 14.2 innings pitched.

At this point it appears the fourth spot will go to the 27-year-old Triggs and the fifth spot will be a toss up between Alcantara and Hahn. It depends on whether or not the A’s really want to hold onto Alcantara because Hahn has had the better numbers.

What happens next is anybody’s guess, but at least the Athletics’ have internal backup options, just in case.

The fifth spot in the rotation was looking like it was going to be Andrew Triggs‘ to lose, with Raul Alcantara and Jesse Hahn as his potential competition.

Now that there are two open spots in the back end of the rotation, there are more names in the mix.

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There are also other minor leaguers with the potential to be back ups and, with all the injuries to pitchers the A’s incurred in 2016, it’s a good thing that they are there.

The main names looking to make the rotation are as already noted Triggs, Alcantara and Hahn. While the younger pitchers who will be providing insurance are Daniel Gossett, Paul Blackburn and potentially Daniel Mengden or Frankie Montas.

Mengden, who made 14 starts for Oakland last season, broke his foot just prior to spring training and is still in a walking boot, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to contribute, if needed, later in the season.

He did struggle a bit, however, in 2016 going 1-9 with a 6.50 ERA but he did strike out 71 batters over 72.1 innings.

Montas didn’t pitch much last season due to rib injuries and while the A’s want to put the hard-throwing right-hander in a starting role, it’s likely he’ll end up in the bullpen this season, He won’t be ready to be a starter but the A’s are hoping he will in the long term.

In a little get-together with reporters, Billy Beane mentions A's still see Frankie Montas as a starter, but this year he's bullpen option.
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) March 17, 2017

Both Gossett and Blackburn have had good showings this spring giving them a bit of leverage over the other two who have a history of injuries. Both also put up good showings in Double-A last season.

Next: A's Introduce Lower Beer Prices, New Food Options

The Athletics do have depth in their pitching, it’s really now a matter of who stays healthy and that includes Sonny Gray.

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